India has been "roasted" and started looking for coal everywhere! The global “coal rush” is taking place
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India is still suffering from a heat wave.
The Indian Meteorological Department previously predicted that the temperature in northern and western India may reach 50 degrees Celsius in May. In April, the average maximum temperature in some parts of India has reached 122 years. the highest value.
In fact, since late March, the temperature in many areas in northern, western and eastern India has continued to reach above 40°C.
In other words, this heat wave has been getting worse since it started in March.
1. Experiencing "baking"
According to the report of the Indian Meteorological Department, the average maximum temperatures in northwest and central India reached 35.9 and 37.78 degrees Celsius respectively. The highest value in the past 122 years.
In April, the temperature in the capital New Delhi exceeded 40 degrees for seven consecutive days. Many media said it was "almost like a fire."
Why is India so hot?
On the one hand, it is the geographical location.
To the north of India are the Himalayas, and to the northwest are inland areas with many mountains.
The north is the mountainous area, the center is the Ganges Plain, and the south is the Deccan Plateau.
The cold air in Siberia is blocked by the Himalayas, but the dry northwest wind from the inland northwest can reach the hinterland of India. Coupled with the influence of the subtropical high, high temperature weather often occurs in some parts of India.
The rainy season in India is from June to September. High temperatures occur before the rainy season every year, so this is not surprising.
On the other hand, due to the influence of global warming and the La Niña phenomenon in recent years, high temperatures in India have intensified.
2. Shortage of electricity and coal
Due to the sustained high temperature, the demand for electricity has increased significantly and has triggered the most serious power crisis in years.
On the one hand, the power crisis is due to insufficient infrastructure construction, which has kept the power supply in a state of tension, but on the other hand, it is also due to the lack of coal.
India, like our country, mainly relies on coal for power generation. Since last year, international coal, natural gas and other prices have been rising across the board. This year, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a series of sanctions, It has pushed international coal prices to a peak again.
The shortage of coal has further aggravated the power shortage.
Coal-fired power generation accounts for more than 70% of India's power generation. In order to alleviate the power crisis, India has relaxed the approval of domestic coal mine expansion on the one hand in order to increase coal production; on the other hand, it has begun to look for coal everywhere. .
Although India is also a large coal-producing country, its external dependence on coal exceeds 20% because it is also a large consumer. It needs to import approximately 300-400 million tons of coal every year.
Therefore, the Indian government requires all localities to comprehensively increase coal imports and increase coal inventories in the next three years.
3. Global “grab for coal”?
India is not the only one suffering from coal shortage.
To say that the most volatile market this year is the energy market, whether it is oil, natural gas or coal, there has been significant growth and fluctuation.
On the one hand, with the economic recovery and inflation after the global epidemic, the prices of commodities and energy have increased significantly. Among them, the continued rise in natural gas prices has forced many countries to consider re-activating coal power generation;
On the other hand, the European Union and other countries announced in April that they would ban Russian coal. In order to make up for this gap, Europe and other countries began to increase their efforts to reserve coal around the world, including coal from South Africa, Indonesia, Australia, etc. Orders have increased.
This has once again aggravated the tight supply and demand. As of the first week of May, the price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, rose to US$376.6/ton, an increase of 5.8% from April; while the price of thermal coal in South Africa rose to US$376.6/ton. 310.9 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.6% from April; thermal coal in the three European ports hit 306 US dollars/ton, also an increase of 0.6% from April.
4. Domestic coal prices have dropped
While the world is worrying about rising coal prices, my country's domestic coal prices have fallen.
In order to ensure supply and stable price in the coal field, the country has successively introduced three major measures:
First, starting from May 1, zero tariffs will be implemented on coal imports to fully encourage coal imports. , to increase supply.
The second is to require domestic coal companies to strictly sign long-term contracts for no less than 80% of annual coal production, and strictly implement the medium- and long-term coal transaction price policy requirements.
The third is to severely crack down on behaviors such as driving up coal prices.
Affected by this series of measures, domestic coal production capacity has been accelerated and coal prices have fallen.
For example, in March, the price of 5,000 kcal coal in North Port was 1,650 yuan/ton. It has now fallen back to about 1,000 yuan/ton, a correction of 600 yuan/ton.
Currently, domestic coal demand is in the traditional off-season, while production is gradually recovering, and overall self-sufficiency is basically maintained.
Although the overall supply and demand situation is tight, changes in international coal prices will have some boosting effects on the domestic market, but we have relatively many sources of imports. For example, in February this year, Russia stated that it would Expand coal exports to China. Compared with last year’s exports to China of 52 million tons, it is expected to double this year to 100 million tons.