When will power stocks rise in 2023?
Guodian Power disclosed the third quarterly report, and the revenue in the first three quarters was 65.438+046.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.25%; The net profit returned to the mother was 5 billion yuan/kloc-0.50 billion yuan, up 1.694.38+0% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue in the third quarter was 551.1.80 billion yuan, up 2.610% year-on-year; The net profit returned to the mother was 2.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3,565,438+0.08%. Here is when the power stocks brought by Bian Xiao will rise!
China's power generation is mainly coal-fired, and most of it is thermal power generation, so power station enterprises are actually the downstream of coal enterprises. In recent two years, due to the tight supply of coal, the price has risen sharply, and thermal power generation has suffered serious losses. Several thermal power enterprises that I pay attention to can be said to be bleeding in 2023.
Huaneng International lost 654.38+003 billion in 2023.
Huadian power international lost 5 billion yuan in 2023.
Datang Power Generation lost 9.3 billion yuan in 2023.
Shanghai Electric Power lost 654.38+0.9 billion yuan in 2023.
However, the share prices of these coal-fired power plant enterprises that lost money in 2023 have ushered in a sharp rise. Huaneng International's annual increase in 2023 was+125.88%. Huadian power international 2023 +69. 1%. In 2023, Shanghai electric power will be +82.87%. Datang Power Generation also rose by +40% in 2023, although no institution is optimistic about it and is willing to make profit forecasts for it.
The higher the loss of power station industry, the better it will rise. Is the market crazy?
Not crazy, in fact, buying power station stocks is similar to buying aviation stocks, pork stocks and real estate stocks on the market now. Although it is very bad at present, the next few years are likely to be the worst. The future will only be better, not worse, then the stock price will naturally rise slowly.
The large losses of thermal power plants in 2023 mainly came from high coal prices. In 2023, the spot price of thermal coal once rushed to the 2000 yuan mark. During the Spring Festival of 2023, the spot price of thermal coal was around 650 yuan, which suddenly increased by three times.
For a long time, China strictly controlled electricity prices, but coal prices fluctuated freely according to market supply and demand. Therefore, once the coal price soars, the thermal power plant will lose money, and the profit fluctuation of the thermal power plant will almost follow the fluctuation of the coal price.
But in fact, there is no shortage of coal reserves in China, and no other country can keep pace with us in coal resources. Why did coal prices rise so much last year? The main reason is that we are stuck in the neck. In order to protect the environment, be carbon neutral and reduce coal mine accidents, our new coal production capacity has been stuck in the past few years.
So that our coal production capacity has hardly increased in the past few years. However, with the development of economy, the power generation is increasing, and eventually coal becomes an industry with stable demand and a small annual growth but limited supply. However, various factors, such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, suddenly amplified the relationship between coal supply and demand.
For example, after the outbreak of COVID-19, other countries increased their demand for China materials, and factory orders increased, which led to more power consumption and more coal demand. For example, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the United States jointly sanctioned Russia, and Russia's energy could not be sold. Global energy prices have risen, and so have coal prices.
Plans can't keep up with changes. Who can predict in advance the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? So many times, we are willing to follow suit. Since coal prices have risen sharply, there are only two solutions, either reducing demand or increasing supply.
From my recent observation, the policy of coal capacity supply is being revised, and the probability of subsequent supply will gradually increase, but it will definitely take time.
1. According to the raw coal output data in recent months, the domestic coal output is increasing rapidly and reaching a record high. Some coal production capacity that has not been approved before has a high probability of being released, so the short-term coal production growth rate is relatively fast.
2. Digging coal can't be started with a hoe. If we want to further improve coal production capacity, we need more capital investment and time. This afternoon, the central bank announced an increase of 654.38 billion yuan in special loans to support coal development and utilization and enhance coal reserve capacity. To put it another way, if coal enterprises increase capital investment and expand production capacity, then those who sell coal mining equipment to coal enterprises will have a good boom time.
3. Dig up domestic coal and buy foreign coal. However, foreign coal is very expensive now, so on April 28th, the State Council announced that it would implement "zero tariff" on coal imports from May to March 3rd, 2023. But I have the final say, and it doesn't matter much.
Because before this, coal imports from Indonesia and Australia were originally zero tariffs, while coal imports from other countries were subject to tariffs ranging from 3% to 6%. However, considering the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB has depreciated by 4.2% since April 19. Although the coal import tariff has been reduced, the RMB has depreciated again. If it is hedged in pairs, the impact will not be great.
Although it seems useless, I mainly want to emphasize the same point as last night, and the policy has turned. Obviously, the state is trying its best to lower coal prices, stabilize domestic inflation, and ensure that power companies do not lose money in normal power generation and do not limit electricity again.
Looking back, the coal price in the first quarter of this year was still at a high level, which really exceeded my expectations. Originally, I was also very anxious, always thinking about when coal prices would come down and when power stocks would rise.
Later, I gradually realized that the country seems to be more anxious than us in stabilizing coal prices. Now that the country is in a hurry, we have nothing to worry about.
Why do power stocks keep falling?
1. As the price of raw materials rises, the price of power generation energy such as coal rises sharply, and the production cost naturally rises.
2. Power stocks will not grow rapidly. Due to China's large population base, large population and large power demand, the performance of power generation enterprises is relatively stable. However, the growth of profits is not great, and the limited growth leads to the market's disapproval of the development of power stocks, so power stocks will fall.
3. The income of the power industry is cyclical. In summer, when people use more electricity, the profits of power companies will increase greatly, but in the off-season, the profits of power companies will grow slowly, even stagnate or lose money.
When will the power stocks go up?
It is understood that power stocks generally rise from June to September, which coincides with summer. Because summer is the peak season of power production and consumption, there is a great demand for power, and the power inventory will change accordingly.
In March this year, State Grid announced that it would accelerate the implementation of the strategy of "three types and two networks, world-class" and make a comprehensive layout of the ubiquitous power Internet of Things. Stimulated by this news, Guodian Nanrui, Minjiang Hydropower, Guang Zhi Electric and other related stocks opened with a "one" daily limit, followed by china xd, Gansu Power Investment, Gao Ping Electric and TBEA.
The large-scale daily limit of the "ubiquitous power Internet of Things" concept stocks made the market quickly recover from the plunge, and the GEM index led the market to launch a strong rebound. The closing GEM index rose 4.43%, hitting a new high this year. The market rose 1.92% and returned above 3000 points, with more than 260 stocks in the two cities.
In addition, according to the data of this summer. In the A-share market, among the constituent stocks of the power index, American Holdings led the increase by 6.06%, huadian power international by 2.62% and Star Power by 2.48%, leading the increase; Eight shares including Guiguan Power, Huaneng International, Changjiang Power, Guangzhou Development, Changyuan Power, Chuantou Energy, Mindong Power and Universal Power rose more than 1%, followed by Inner Mongolia Huadian and China Nuclear Power.
According to the analysis of relevant personages in the industry, due to the high temperature weather and the arrival of the peak demand season, the electricity consumption has hit record highs, which is the direct reason for pushing up the industry inventory. In addition to the surge in demand for electricity, coal prices have recently fallen, and clean energy substitution has become a trend. The profit of the power industry will increase substantially in the third quarter, and it is expected that the national electricity consumption will increase steadily in the second half of the year.
According to the report released by China Electric Power Enterprise Federation on July 26th, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the first half of the year was 3.4 trillion kWh, up by 5% year-on-year, and the power supply and demand were generally balanced. The report also stated that on the basis of analyzing the reality of power supply and demand in the first half of the year, factors such as domestic and international macroeconomic situation, power substitution, last year's base, environmental protection and safety inspection were comprehensively considered.
In the second half of the year, electricity consumption will continue to grow steadily in the first half of the year, and the national electricity consumption will increase by about 5.5% in 2023. It is estimated that the installed capacity of power generation in China will reach 2 billion kilowatts by the end of the year, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy will increase to 42%, exceeding the planned target of 39% in 2023.