There is only one recognized stock god in the world. Who is he? Please help! ~
@ Warren Buffett never invests in companies he doesn't understand. During his 40-year investment career, he made only 12 investment decisions, which made him unique today.
When large enterprises are temporarily in trouble or the stock market falls, creating a profitable trading share price, you should enter the market and buy the shares of these large enterprises. Stop trying to predict the trend of the stock market, economic situation, interest rate or election results, and stop wasting money on people who make a living from it. Study the company's current situation and financial situation, evaluate the future prospects, and buy everything that goes well.
Many people invest blindly. To some extent, it is like playing cards all night, but you can't see the cards in your hand.
@ investors do a careful and thorough investment research, as long as they focus on holding a few stocks, the investment risk can be greatly reduced. Usually, Buffett holds shares in common stock, which consists of only five different stocks.
The core of @ Buffett's investment strategy is (buy? Buy and hold, buy a good enterprise, own this investment for several years, and then make a profit according to the income of enterprise operation. This concept is simple and straightforward, and investors can easily understand the principle of this method.
@ Most people are influenced and restricted by the existing stock trading methods. They only know how to chase the bid-ask price difference, but forget that buying and selling stocks was originally just a transfer of equity. As a shareholder's right, holding equity originally comes from the profits obtained from enterprise operation.
As a shareholder, I originally hoped to profit from the enterprise, grow constantly and collect successful business results. The stock market is only convenient for shareholders to transfer shares.
The basic principles on which Buffett's investment decision is based:
1. Enterprise principle: Is this enterprise easy to understand? Is the business history of this enterprise stable? Is the long-term development prospect of this enterprise promising?
2. Operating principle: Are operators rational? Are operators honest and frank with shareholders? Will operators blindly follow the actions of other legal human rights structures?
3. Financial principle: Pay attention to the return on shareholders' equity, not earnings per share. Calculate (calculate shareholders' income) to find companies with high gross profit margin. For every dollar of retained earnings, ensure that the company owner creates a dollar of market value.
4. Market principle: How much material value does this enterprise have? Can this enterprise be acquired at a significant value discount?
@ Buffett's investment strategy is very simple, that is:
1. Ignore the daily ups and downs of the stock market.
Don't worry about the economic situation.
Buy companies instead of stocks.
4. Manage the enterprise product portfolio.
@ Warren Buffett has created billions of dollars of wealth since he invested one hundred dollars. He is regarded as the greatest investor today. He used simple investment strategies and principles, ignored the daily ups and downs of the stock market, and did not worry about the economic situation, and managed his portfolio properly, creating another investment model different from speculators.
@ Buffett's net worth10 billion dollars, ranking first among the richest people in the United States for many years. In recent years, he was overtaken by Bill Gates, and he was the only person in America who got wealth from the stock market.
@ Buffett 1930 was born in Omaha, Nebraska. He entered the Business School of Columbia University and studied under Benjamin Graham (he has always advocated the importance of understanding the true value of the company). 1956 He took the knowledge Graham got and the support of his relatives and friends. He started his limited partnership investment business in Omaha (later, his father Berkshire Hathaway). At the initial stage of the partnership, seven limited partners jointly invested105,000 USD. Buffett, the main partner, starts to invest from 100 yuan. Those limited partners recover 6% of the investment and 75% of the total profit every year on top of this fixed profit, and Buffett's remuneration is another 25%. In the past 13 years, Buffett's money was 25% every year.
@ Two smart people? Benjamin Graham gave Buffett the thinking foundation of investment: margin of safety, and helped Buffett learn to control his emotions in order to profit from the fluctuation of market prices. Philip Fisher gave Buffett the latest feasible methodology, enabling him to determine a good long-term investment. Buffett said: I 15% like Fisher and 85% like Graham.
@ Fisher's book: Common Stock and Unusual Profit and Graham's book Smart Investor are Buffett's two most profound investment masterpieces. He said that every investor must read it at least 20 times to truly understand the true meaning of investment.
After a complete analysis and research, @ Tou You thinks that it can guarantee the safety of the principal and obtain a satisfactory return. An operation that does not meet these requirements is speculation.
Although Graham's (value theory) and Fisher's (growth theory) have different investment methods, Buffett said: In the investment field, they are equally important. @ Value Theory: It is pointed out that an ordinary portfolio with carefully selected risks and reasonable prices may be a smart stock. Graham speculated that if the price of a stock is lower than its value, then the stock is on the margin of safety. Graham said that there are two rules for investment: 1. No loss. Don't forget the first rule. He believes that the market often gives stocks an inappropriate price, and this wrong price is often caused by human fear and greed. @ Growth Theory: Excess profits are created by:
1. Companies with above-average investment potential. 2. Keep up with the most competent management.
@ Fisher believes that even if it has the ability to increase sales, it is not appropriate to invest in a company if it cannot make profits for shareholders. If the profits can't increase relatively in these years, all the sales growth doesn't mean that the company's stock is the right investment tool.
@ Buffy insists that investors should learn to think independently. If you have reached a logical conclusion through careful judgment, you should never be discouraged by the disagreement of others. You won't judge right or wrong because these people disagree, but you are right because your data and reasoning are correct. ) 。
@ Buffett: When people are greedy or afraid, they often buy and sell stocks at stupid prices. The long-term value of stocks depends on the economic development of enterprises, not the daily market conditions.
The fundamental difference between investors and speculators lies in their views on stock prices. Speculators try to profit from the ups and downs of prices. Instead, investors seek to acquire shares in the company at a reasonable price.
An investor's biggest enemy is not the stock market, but himself. No matter how good an investor is in mathematics, finance or pricing, if he can't control his emotions, he can't make a profit in the investment process.
@ Buffett doesn't believe in the so-called market forecast, he can't predict the short-term changes of stock prices, and he doesn't believe that anyone can do this. He has always felt that (the only value of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers have more face).
@ Buffett doesn't expect the stock market to rise and fall, but tries to be cautious and fearful when others are greedy. Only when everyone is careful will they go forward bravely.
As long as you have deep confidence in the company that holds its shares, you should welcome the stock price decline and take this opportunity to increase your holdings. The stock market is not an indicator, but a place where stocks can be bought and sold.
@ Buffett said that because all he does is long-term investment, short-term market fluctuations have no effect on him at all. He believes that he is more capable of evaluating the true value of a company than the market. If he can't do this, you are not qualified to play this game. It's like playing the park card, he explained. If you can't see who Kai Zi is after playing for a while, then that Kai Zi is you.
@ Buffett learned that excellent companies can make investors make decisions easily, but those companies with poor conditions, even if investors are hesitant, will have to give up that company if they can't easily convince themselves to make a purchase decision. Buffett has the spirit of saying no, and only when all factors are favorable to him will he buy stocks, and this ability to say no is the biggest factor that makes the investment profitable.
Buffett's success in managing a huge portfolio is largely due to his ability. Most investors can't resist the temptation to keep going in and out of the stock market.
@ Buffett said that investors always want to buy too many stocks, but they are unwilling to wait patiently for a good company that is really worth investing in. It is much easier to buy a stock of a top company and hold it for a long time than to be lost in those stocks that are not so good all day. There are many investors who don't buy or sell for a day, but he can not do the stock he is doing for a year. It is his usual investment style to sit back and watch.
According to Buffett's point of view, investors should definitely hold a few promising stocks instead of rushing in and out of a pile of unhealthy stocks. In fact, Buffett's success is mainly based on several successful large-scale investments.
@ Investors should assume that they have only one investment decision card and 20 cards in their hands. Every time they make an investment, they punch a hole in the card, and the number of times they can make investment decisions will be relatively reduced. Buffett believes that if investors are really limited by this, they will wait patiently for the best investment opportunity to appear instead of making a hasty decision.
@ Buffett knows from experience that healthy and well-managed companies are usually not cheap. Once he sees excellent companies with low prices, he will definitely buy in large quantities without doubt, completely unaffected by the economic downturn or the pessimistic atmosphere of the market.
As he grows older, Buffett is more and more convinced that the correct way to invest is to invest a lot of money in enterprises that you know and have deep confidence in their operation. Some people spread their money on investments that they know little about and lack any selling points. This view is actually wrong. Everyone's knowledge and experience are bound to be limited, and it is rare to find more than three companies that can make people feel confident at the same time.
@ Buffett doesn't care about the rise and fall of his shareholding, nor does he care about the performance of the stock index in the market. He judges the quality of stocks based on operating performance, not short-term trading prices. He knows that as long as the enterprise itself has outstanding business performance, such performance will one day be reflected in the stock price.
@ Buffett admits that there is a big gap between his long-term holding strategy and the thinking mode of fund managers of institutional investors. Most fund managers always change their holdings quickly after the new favorites appear on Wall Street. Their investment portfolio is constantly diversifying the risks of large enterprises, mainly to protect themselves from falling behind the pace of the market. Rarely because they think those companies have good economic value. In Buffett's mind, the word (legal person) represents contradiction. He said that calling a fund manager an investor is like calling the pursuit of a one-night stand a one-night stand.
@ Buffett said: Because I regard myself as a business operator, I become a better investor. Because I regard myself as an investor, I become a better business operator.
Buying a company in an all-round way is basically no different from buying its shares. Whether buying a company or holding only part of the voting rights of the company, Buffett follows the same investment strategy: find a company that he knows and is conducive to long-term investment. At the same time, the management of the company must be honest and have management ability, and the most important thing is that the price should be attractive.
@ Buffett said: When investing, think of yourself as an enterprise analyst, not a market analyst or even a securities analyst. When evaluating a potential transaction or buying stocks, Buffett will first measure all qualitative and quantitative aspects of the company's operating system, financial situation and purchase price from the perspective of business owners.
Four basic principles of Buffett's investment decision:
1. Enterprise principle: three basic characteristics of the enterprise itself.
2. Operating principles: three important characteristics that executives must show.
3. Financial principles: four important financial policies that the company must follow.
4. Market principle: two related cost criteria.
@ Enterprise Principles:
1) Whether the enterprise is easy to understand.
2) Whether the past operating conditions of the enterprise are stable.
3) Whether the long-term development prospect of the enterprise is optimistic.
From Buffett's point of view, the financial success of investors is directly proportional to his understanding of the investments made. Because he only chooses the enterprises within his own understanding, he has always had a high understanding of the enterprises he has invested in.
According to Buffett's observation, the success of investment lies not in how much you know, but in whether you can honestly admit what you don't know. Investors don't need to do many things right. What's important is not to make major mistakes. In Buffett's experience, you can get above-average investment results through some common methods. The key point is how to make some ordinary things extremely extraordinary.
@ Buffett doesn't touch complex enterprises, and he stays away from those enterprises that are in trouble or intend to completely change their business direction because of the failure of previous plans. Buffett believes that major changes and high returns do not intersect. Many investors are desperately snapping up companies that are undergoing organizational changes, and are often confused by the illusion that some enterprises may bring benefits in the future, while ignoring the current corporate reality.
@ Buffett knows from the experience of management and investment that salted fish rarely turn over. Learning to avoid them is not because we have the ability to remove all obstacles, but because we focus on finding obstacles that can be crossed.
@ How it works:
1) Is management rational?
2) Is the entire management honest with shareholders?
3) Can the management resist (the blind obedience of legal institutions)?
Managers regard themselves as the person in charge of the company and will not forget the company's main goal-the appreciation of shareholders' shareholding. At the same time, they will make rational decisions to further achieve this goal.
@ Buffett admires those behavior management talents who can pay attention to their own responsibilities, disclose all operating conditions to shareholders completely and accurately, and dare to resist the so-called (blindly following legal institutions) instead of blindly following others.
@ Distributing the company's capital is the most important business activity, because after a period of time, the distribution of capital will determine the value of shareholders' equity. According to Buffett's point of view, it is a very important rational thinking topic to decide how to deal with the company's surplus (reinvesting or distributing dividends to shareholders).
@ Buffett attaches great importance to managers who report the company's operating conditions completely and accurately, especially those who will not hide the company's operating conditions with generally accepted accounting principles. They share their success with others, but they dare to admit their mistakes and always keep an honest attitude towards shareholders.
If the allocation of capital expenditure is so simple and reasonable, how can there be so many improper use of funds? Buffett's answer is what he calls invisible power. Managers of enterprises will naturally imitate the behaviors of other managers, no matter how stupid and irrational those behaviors are.
@ Financial Principle:
1) Focus on the return on shareholders' equity, not earnings per share. 2) Calculate (shareholder's income) < > and get the correct value.
3) Companies seeking high gross profit.
4) For every dollar of surplus retained, the company must increase its market value by at least one dollar.
@ Buffett said: A good enterprise should earn a good return on shareholders' equity without borrowing. They should be skeptical of companies that have to rely on a considerable amount of debt to achieve a good return on shareholders' equity. @ Buffett warns: Accounting earnings per share is only the starting point to evaluate the economic value of enterprises, and it is by no means the end point; Not all surpluses represent the same meaning.
@ Buffett likes to use [shareholder's equity] owner's income? Instead of cash flow calculation, the company's net income plus depreciation, wear and tear, amortization expenses, capital expenditure and other additional working capital. It is better to be in a daze than to be clearly wrong.
@ Buffett pointed out that if management can't turn sales into profits, no matter how good the investment is, managers who need high-cost operations will often increase their recurrent expenses. Buffett hates those managers who keep increasing their expenses.
@ Buffett's criteria for choosing a company are: long-term development prospects are good, and the company is run by a group of capable managers who focus on the interests of shareholders, which will be proved with the increase of the company's market value in the future. The surplus of each dollar is really converted into a market value of at least one dollar.
@ Market principle:
1. What is the real value of an enterprise?
2. When the stock price of a company is far below its actual value, can you buy its stock?
Investors should weigh two factors: whether the company has good real value, and whether it is a good time to buy (that is, is the price attractive? )
@ Buffett puts forward with john williams's {Theory of Investment Value} that the value of an enterprise is equal to the expected net cash flow in its life cycle with an appropriate discount rate. The calculation of enterprise value is very similar to the model of evaluating bond value. The future cash flow of bonds can be divided into two parts: the interest paid by each coupon and the principal returned by future bonds at maturity.
It is very simple to determine the value of a company by using appropriate variables: cash flow and expected discount rate. If he is not fully sure about predicting the future cash flow of an enterprise, he will not try to evaluate the value of a company. If the enterprise is easy to understand; And with a stable surplus, Buffett can moderately determine the future cash flow.
Once Buffett decides the future cash flow of the enterprise, he should use the discount rate to discount it. The discount rate used by Buffett is the long-term bond interest rate of the US government.
@ Buffett refuses to buy companies with debt problems and focuses on companies with stable and predictable income. He said: I attach great importance to certainty. All the factors that cause the risk are meaningless to me. The risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
@ Continue to buy low cost-benefit ratio
@ Investors looking for purchase value usually choose stocks between [value] and [growth]. Buffett said: Growth and value investment are actually interlinked. Value is the discounted value of investing in its future cash flow, while growth is only a forecasting process used to determine value.
When the return on investment capital is higher than the average, growth can increase the value of investment. Ensure that every dollar invested will increase the market value of at least one dollar. However, for shareholders of companies with low return on capital, growth may be affected.
@ Buffett pointed out that focusing on a company that is easy to understand, has a lasting economic strength and puts shareholders first can't guarantee success. First of all, he must buy at a reasonable price, and the company must meet his expectations of the enterprise.
@ Buffett admits that if you make a mistake, it is because there are three problems:
1) The price we pay.
2) The management we participate in.
3) The future economic situation of the enterprise. He pointed out that wrong estimates most often occur in the third reason.
@ Buffett's intention is not only to identify companies that can earn above-average income, but also to buy these companies when the price is far below their true value. @ Graham: Buffett said.
@ Buffett said: As long as the return on shareholders' equity of an enterprise is promising and satisfactory, or the manager is competent and honest, and the market price does not overestimate the enterprise, then he is quite satisfied with holding any securities for a long time.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine, and he is willing to put up with it. The stock you hold must be better than cash, otherwise it is not a good investment.
If the stock market really overvalues a company, it will sell its shares. If he needs cash to buy shares of other companies that may be undervalued or have the same value, but he knows better, Buffett will sell securities with fair or undervalued value to realize it.
When people's worries about some big environmental events rise to the highest point, it is actually the time when we make the best deal. Fear is the enemy of fashionistas, but it is a close friend of financial analysts who value fundamentals.
When Buffett is engaged in investment, he observes the whole picture of a company, while most investors only observe its share price.
@ Sophisticated people change themselves to adapt to the world, while maverick people insist on trying to change the world to adapt themselves. Therefore, all progress depends on the latter. Buffett has always regarded investment as a business activity and common sense as his investment philosophy.
According to Buffett's theory, investors and entrepreneurs should observe a company in the same way, because they actually want the same thing. Entrepreneurs want to buy the whole company, while investors want to buy some shares in the company. If you ask an entrepreneur what he wants to buy a company, the answer is often: how much cash can this company generate? The value of a company is directly related to its ability to generate cash. Theoretically, entrepreneurs and investors should pay attention to the same variables in order to make a profit.
@ The client requires professional investors to report their performance, and they are often impatient when waiting for their portfolio to reach a certain price. If there is no short-term price increase in their portfolio, the clients will show dissatisfaction and doubt their professional ability in investment. Professional investors know that they must choose between improving short-term performance and risking losing customers, so they begin to fall into the whirlpool of chasing up and down.
Buffett thinks it is foolish to judge a company's success by short-term price. On the contrary, he wants the company to report to him the value gained from the growth of economic strength. He checks several variables regularly every year:
1) Initial rate of return on shareholders' equity
2) Changes in operating margin, debt level and capital expenditure
3) the company's cash generating ability
@ Warren Buffett's investment strategy:
Step 1: Ignore the daily ups and downs of the stock market.
Step 2: Don't worry about the economic situation.
Step 3: Buy a company instead of stocks.
Step 4: Manage the investment portfolio of the enterprise.
@ The stock market is a place where fanaticism and depression alternate. Sometimes it is excited about future expectations, but sometimes it shows unreasonable depression. Such market behavior creates investment prices, especially when the stock prices of excellent enterprises fall to unreasonably low prices. The stock market is not an investment consultant, it exists only to help buy and sell stocks.
If you plan to own the stock of an excellent enterprise and hold it for a long time, but it is illogical to pay attention to the daily changes of the stock market, you will be surprised to find that your portfolio will become more valuable if you don't pay attention to the changes of the market.
@ Buffett prefers to buy companies that can benefit from any economic situation at organic prices. If you choose and have the ability to make profits in any economic environment, your time will be used more wisely. However, short-term holding stocks irregularly can only make a profit if you correctly predict the economic boom.
Unless you know how a company makes money, you can't make a wise prediction about its future. When investing in stocks, investors usually know nothing about how a company generates sales, expenses and profits.
@ The most worthwhile enterprises are those with the best long-term prospects and market franchise (exclusive and different products). Market franchising refers to the services that customers want when selling products or customers. There is no similar substitute in the market, and it has a high economic reputation.
The ability of an enterprise to generate cash determines its value. Buffett identifies companies that generate more cash than they need to operate, and excludes those that consume cash constantly.
@ Buffett provides a more correct calculation method, which he calls [shareholder's income]. The way to determine the shareholder's income is to add depreciation, loss and amortization expenses to the net profit, and then subtract the capital expenditure of those companies to maintain the economic situation and sales volume.
@ High gross profit margin reflects the spirit of operators to control costs. Buffett appreciates operators who pay attention to the concept of cost, but hates operators who inflate costs.
@ The main force to promote Buffett's investment strategy lies in the rational allocation of funds. Deciding how to distribute the company's surplus is the most important decision of the operator. The rationality of making investment choices is Buffett's most admired trait.