Typhoon Xuanlannuo has been upgraded to the first super typhoon. What is its path trend? Will it have an impact on our country?
There is Typhoon embryo 98W to the southeast of Typhoon Xuanlannuo, and we can see from the satellite cloud image above that the development of 98W is relatively fast. The current cloud system is larger than the petite Xuanlannuo. Moreover, the Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded 98W to a tropical depression, and does not rule out the possibility of 98W becoming Typhoon Meihua tonight or tomorrow. If 98W develops beyond expectations, Xuanlannuo will have a typhoon Fujiwara effect with it, and its path will be more difficult to predict. If 98W develops generally, or is eaten by Xuanlannuo, then Xuanlannuo will have greater difficulties in predicting its intensity. This in turn affects its path prediction. In any case, the emergence of 98w is an obstacle to Xuanlannuo, because it will bring relatively strong wind shear to Xuanlannuo, and the impact of wind shear on typhoons is fatal. If they get too close, both sides will suffer.
The track of the typhoon itself is generally guided by the subtropical high 9 and the westerly trough. According to the numerical forecast of the supercomputer, Xuanlannuo should currently be affected by the eastern subtropical high and move southwestward, gradually approaching the sparse ball. Islands. However, it becomes difficult to predict part of the path in the Shuqiu Islands. First, the western subtropical high will be involved. I don’t know how strong or weak the western subtropical high will be by then, and whether it will guide it to continue westward. Then the westerly trough will be in place and begin to attract Xuan Lannuo. Going north, 98w is attracting it to move south or west, and it is also related to the development strength of Xuanlannuo. If it is weak by then, then it may continue to be guided by the subtropical high. If the intensity is strong, it may directly push away the subtropical high. The high rushes directly towards the westerly trough.
The supercomputer simulated multiple routes, including entering the stage, inserting directly into East China, turning to enter South Korea, turning around to attack Japan, etc. This shows that the path of the typhoon began to become erratic near the Shuqiu Group of Birds. However, the supercomputer believes that the probability is more likely to turn around and attack Japan or enter the Sea of Japan from the Tsushima Strait. The western Pacific Ocean, which is exposed to the long-term control of the subtropical high, has strong energy. Typhoon Xuanlano can at least maintain its position as the global wind king this year, and the Shuqiu Islands cannot avoid a direct attack, and the intensity may be very strong.
GFS believes that Xuanlannuo will become a typhoon with a large circulation after entering the East China Sea. First of all, the East China region of my country will be affected by its downdraft, which may cause hot weather. When Xuanlannuo gets closer, East China will It will also be affected by the strong winds on its periphery, resulting in windy weather, and it will cooperate with the cold air from the westerly trough in the north to move southward to bring cooling. Let’s talk about high intensity first. Yesterday, Xuan Lannuo has reached the second peak of his "Taiwan" life. The satellite cloud image shows the round CDO (center dense cloud area) and the extremely clear eye of the storm. The Sentinel-3A satellite at night showed an eye temperature as high as 25.6 degrees, indicating that the interior of the eye was extremely clear. Microwave scanning shows that its structure is compact, and the brightness temperature of the ring formed by microwave scanning is extremely low, which reflects the extremely strong updraft inside it. All these make it the "wind king" in the northwest Pacific and even the world so far this year, and also one of the strongest typhoons.
However, the peak of the typhoon will always pass. As the outer rainband develops, it gradually appears as a double eye wall. The outer eye wall gradually strengthens and shrinks inward, limiting the original eye wall. The influx and strengthening of water vapor in the wall caused it to gradually enter a weakening stage, the core cloud system began to stratify, and the clearness of the eye of the storm also weakened significantly. However, when the replacement is completed, Xuanlannuo will come to the ocean east of the Sparse Birds. This area of the ocean has not had a tropical cyclone pass through so far this year, and is affected by the long-term control of the subtropical high and the La Niña effect. The sea temperature is very high, and it is the main part of the Kuroshio. The surface temperature and enthalpy of sea water are extremely high. This means that after its eyewall replacement is completed, it may usher in another peak collapse.
The replacement of the eyewall of a typhoon, especially for a typhoon with a small eye, will cause its eye and circulation (or more commonly known as "body size") to expand. Moreover, there will be some formal changes after it goes south. Just today, there is a cold air moving southward. It can be seen from the picture that there is a shortwave trough in the westerly belt in Shandong today. The shortwave trough will cooperate with Typhoon Xuanlano to cut off the subtropical high pressure in the northwest Pacific.
1. In this way, in about a day, Xuanlannuo will enter the area between the two high-pressure cells. This area is called a saddle field. The high-pressure cell on the west side will give Xuan Lanno a southward force, while the West Pacific subtropical high on the east side will give a northward force. These two combined forces cancel out, so the typhoon moves slowly in the saddle field. , when a saddle field appears, it depends on the changes in position and intensity of these two high pressures. This is one of the reasons that adds uncertainty to Xuanlannuo's path forecast.
Second, if a typhoon stays on the same ocean surface for a long time, even if the main body of the Kuroshio has extremely rich heat, it will be used up. According to past experience, if a typhoon stays for too long, although its intensity will be reduced due to the weakening of heat, the overall structure will become loose, and the wind circle and scope of influence will be significantly expanded. This means that it may no longer be such a small and delicate typhoon, but become large and fierce. The supercomputer pointed out that its influence range was very wide when it moved northward in the East China Sea in the later period, and the coast of East China may also be affected by some wind and rain.
Third, other systems may cause interference to the path. Previously, there was a tropical disturbance 98W on the south side of Xuanlanno, and it quickly developed into tropical depression 13W. However, today it is dying. It was pulled by Xuanlanno itself and the strong vertical wind shear caused by its high-altitude anticyclone. It no longer has a "table" shape.
However, there is a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) east of Xuanlanno. When the upper-altitude momentum is transmitted downward under the extremely high sea temperature in the northwest Pacific, it may gradually establish a structure in the middle level, and may A new tropical disturbance forms. This kind of typhoon formed by high altitude coldness generally has a good MLC, and if it wants to be strengthened, it will sometimes be very fast. If the tropical disturbance on the east side is generated and strengthened beyond expectation, it may provide a westward force for Xuanlannuo, bringing it closer to the coast of East China. The current supercomputing model has a certain response to it, which is also a variable worthy of attention.
Currently, it seems that the path has a tendency to be close to the east coast of my country, and will at least pass through the coasts of Taiwan and Zhejiang, which will have a great impact on the Q group of birds. As for the possibility of landing, at present, the probability of landing in South Korea and Japan is relatively high, and the possibility of landing in my country is very low. However, peripheral subsidence and strong wind circles will affect the provinces along the East China Sea. More accurate forecasts can only wait until it merges with the tropical depression around 13w. By then, its circulation will become larger and its path will be more stable and easier to predict.