The temperature drops by 12℃, and cold wave warnings are issued in many places! 18 provinces will welcome the "season change" cooling, no suspense about the cold winter?
Beginning on October 10, a wave of strong cold air hit, and many places experienced a drop in temperature. Expert analysis said that this cooling is caused by the colder Pacific sea temperature. Due to the stronger low-level trade winds in the Pacific, the "La Niña" state will strike again. In "La Niña" years, my country's winter temperatures are significantly lower. Is there no suspense about this year's cold winter?
01. Cold wave warning in many places
Recently, the cold air can be said to be one wave after another, and it continues to move south, cooling down wherever it goes. For example, the wave of cold air on the 11th caused the temperature to drop in many provincial capitals such as Beijing, Jinan, Hefei, and Changsha, and "autumn began overnight" in many places.
At the same time, typhoons have also made landfall one after another recently. Under the double penetration of cold air and typhoons, the temperature in Haikou has dropped significantly, with the lowest temperature falling below 20℃, and autumn is coming. However, now another wave of cold air has arrived, and it may be the strongest cold air since the second half of the year. It will last from the 14th to the 17th, and the central and eastern parts will cool down significantly.
Cold wave warnings have been issued in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Qinghai and other places. For example, Jilin Province issued a blue cold wave warning at 4:00 on the 14th. In the next day, the temperature in Baishan, Changchun, Jilin, Changbai Mountain and other places may drop by 6-8℃, and in some areas it may be around 10℃.
The Shenyang Meteorological Observatory also issued a warning. On the 14th and 15th, the temperature dropped by 10-12℃ in some areas, and in some areas it dropped by 12-14℃. The lowest temperature may drop to -1℃ on the 16th.
The southern region cannot be alone. This round of cold air will affect 18 provinces. Many places in Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, and South China will have a second cooling, and will drop to the lowest in the second half of the year. By then, many places across the country will There will be a “seasonal change” of cooling.
If Jiangsu Province issues a cold air warning, the temperature will drop significantly from the 15th to the 17th, with a drop of 8-10℃, and may drop to 10-12℃ in some places. The lowest temperature will drop to 4-5℃ on the 18th. , and the Huaibei region may usher in frost.
The Central Meteorological Observatory also issued a warning, believing that this cold air will bring cooling, rain, snow, and strong winds to the central and eastern regions. Jiangnan, Jianghan, Jianghuai, The temperature in Huanghuai and most of the north dropped by 6-10℃, reaching 14℃ in some areas, and the 0℃ line moved southward.
For example, on the 16th, the cold air mass will cover the Northeast and northeastern Inner Mongolia. By then, the maximum temperature in Changchun and Harbin will drop to 5℃, setting a new record for the highest temperature since autumn. The lowest temperature in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province may fall below 5℃ on the 17th, gradually approaching 0℃. The highest temperature in Beijing, Taiyuan, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Jinan and other places will drop below 15℃. The highest temperature in Jiangnan will also drop below 20℃. Hangzhou The lowest temperatures in , Nanjing, Changsha, Hefei, Wuhan and other places fell below 10℃.
At the same time, due to this round of cold air, there will be light to moderate snow in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, and northeastern Inner Mongolia, while western Gansu and eastern Qinghai will usher in heavy snow.
In addition to strong cold air, the arrival of typhoon "Compass" will also usher in strong winds and heavy rains in South China. There will be gusts of magnitude 9-10 along the coasts of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan, and heavy rains. However, the intensity is expected to weaken next, and people can breathe a sigh of relief.
02. No suspense in the cold winter?
During the National Day, the south ushered in the highest temperature since October. This high temperature was caused by the strong and northward subtropical high pressure, which prevented the cold air from moving southward. As a result, many places in the south were in heat. However, starting from the 11th, cold air arrived one after another, coupled with the impact of the typhoon, causing the temperature to drop significantly.
Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the Climate Center, said that sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are relatively cold and are expected to continue to cool from October to December and enter a "La Nina" state. A report from an American website pointed out that the probability of La Niña occurring this year is 80%, which means there is a high probability of La Niña occurring.
Jia Xiaolong said that La Niña has a high impact on global weather, and in my country there will be a "drought in the south and floods in the north" situation. First, the water vapor transport in the south is less, there is not much rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River and south China, and The probability of drought is relatively high; secondly, La Niña has a forcing effect on the atmospheric circulation in mid- and high-dimensional areas, which will cause cold air to appear one after another. Next, the cold water temperature will strengthen and the La Niña phenomenon will continue to strengthen.
This year, my country’s climate has just shown a situation of “drought in the south and floods in the north”, and the rainfall in the north has increased abnormally since September, which has had a great impact on agricultural production.
According to the analysis of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, La Niña has not yet strengthened and is expected to reach its peak in December and begin to weaken after January of the following year.
Looking at it this way, there is no suspense about the cold winter this year? Judging from the existing analysis, there is a high probability of a cold winter this year. However, there are many factors that affect winter weather, such as snow in mid- and high-latitudes, Arctic sea ice, etc. In addition, global warming also acts as a hedge against cold air, so winter may not be possible. It must be a cold winter, and it is difficult to see the extremely cold and heavy snow weather of 2008 again.
Even though there were two major cold waves in our country from December last year to January of the following year, the temperature immediately increased after the cold wave, and the average temperature from December to February of the following year was still warm. Therefore, It is still open to question whether this year will be a cold winter.
However, everyone must also do a good job in keeping warm and keeping out the cold. This year's energy supply is tight, and the "power rationing wave" in September is ongoing. If the winter is cold, heating costs will inevitably increase. It is expected that Heating costs may rise to 2,000-3,000 yuan this year. What do you think?