Warning! Pig prices "can't go down", corn and wheat fluctuate violently, and the risk of rice increases sharply! What's the matter?
In the grain market, the prices of corn and wheat fluctuate strongly at present, and the corn market has stopped falling. However, the market risk of rice market has increased sharply. So, what has happened to the market? The specific analysis is coming!
First, the pig market:
After the end of 10 in the domestic pig market, the pig price dropped sharply and the market entered a rational callback trend. But in February of 10, the price of pigs rose briefly. However, due to the sharp increase in the slaughter plan of pig enterprises of the Group this month and the liberalization of the domestic mask problem, the phenomenon of social concentration "turning to Yang" has increased sharply, further aggravating the decline of the staged consumer market and intensifying the market peak season. The competitive slaughter sentiment increased sharply, and the domestic pig price fell more than expected. Before the solar term from winter to solar term, the average price of domestic pigs fell to 15.63 yuan/kg. Compared with the end of 10, the pig price dropped by 44.8% in just two months!
However, at the end of 65438+February, with the recovery of residents after "turning to Yang", the consumer market in many places gradually picked up, while the pork price was loose, the market consumption fever gradually picked up and superimposed, and the bullish sentiment at the breeding end became stronger, and the pig price gradually fled from the price "depression", which further shocked the market. However, with the skyrocketing price of pigs, the price rose by 6008+07.10000010/06, and the slaughtering mood at the farming end was "restless", and the phenomenon of market price recognition increased, and the price of pigs went up and down. On February 29th, 65438, the pig price dropped to 17.44 yuan/kg!
However, judging from the operating rate of domestic slaughter enterprises, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises has continued to rise recently. At present, the operating rate of domestic sample enterprises has reached 3 1.9 1%, which is 2.33 percentage points higher than that of last weekend. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased, which also reflects that the enthusiasm of pork demand in the terminal market has gradually increased!
The recent low price of live pigs has aggravated the loosening of domestic pork prices. In my hometown, the price of ordinary pork in southwest Shandong has dropped to 14 ~ 15 yuan/kg, and the market demand is gradually increasing. Some residents have the feeling of curing bacon, while in the south, some farmers have the phenomenon of replenishing bacon, the consumer market is gradually picking up, and the demand for catering in mainstream cities in China is gradually improving.
In terms of the supply of live pigs, at present, the annual slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has been basically completed, and the enthusiasm of large pig enterprises to slaughter at the end of the month has weakened, while retail pig farms are selling at low prices. With the decline of pig prices in the north and south regions, the market resistance is gradually heating up, and it is obviously more difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs smoothly!
Therefore, based on the market long-short game, I personally predict that the pig price will remain strong in the short term. However, due to the general performance of consumption boost, breeding pigs are still in a mixed mood. It is expected that the pig price will mainly rise and fall, and the price will fluctuate strongly!
Second, corn and wheat fluctuated and rose!
Recently, the domestic wheat market fluctuated strongly and the market continued to rise. However, the increase remained at a low level, and the domestic spot wheat price was mainly sideways. Among them, the listing price of wheat in mainstream milling enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Henan is maintained at around 1.59~ 1.63 yuan/kg!
Judging from the market feedback, there are still deviations in the terminal flour delivery of domestic flour milling enterprises, and some flour milling enterprises have stopped working ahead of schedule. Due to the limited consumption of food and beverage, the enthusiasm of dealers to supplement powder is not high, and the operating rate of domestic mainstream milling enterprises is only about 32.5%! Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has gone down, the price of bran has also fluctuated weakly, the profit margin of milling enterprises has fallen, and the sentiment of high-priced grain supply has gradually weakened!
However, in terms of domestic wheat supply, the surplus grain at the grassroots level basically bottomed out at the end of the year. For grain traders, as we all know, the price of wheat has risen this year, and the warehousing cost of traders' wheat is generally high, which further aggravates the warehousing cost of wheat after long-term storage. Therefore, traders' reluctance to sell is more bullish, the domestic spot wheat circulation is reduced, and there are few vehicles waiting in front of enterprises!
Therefore, under the long-short game, the domestic spot wheat price is dominated by strong shocks, and the market may continue to be weak and strong in the short term. However, after entering the New Year's Day, with the gradual opening of the policy wheat auction, the market wheat circulation will gradually increase, and although there is a certain demand rebound in the terminal market, the wheat price will still face downside risks!
In the corn market, recently, due to the centralized production of grain by grass-roots farmers, traders followed the harvest, the circulation of domestic spot corn increased, the vehicles queuing in front of enterprises gradually relaxed, and the price of corn fluctuated downward in the northeast of China's mainstream producing areas, as well as in North China and Huanghuai. However, due to the sharp increase in the cost of corn planting this year, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of fertilizers and agricultural materials have risen, and the rents of large grain growers have risen. With the decline of corn prices, the reluctance of farmers to sell in Northeast China and North China has warmed up, the number of corn has decreased, and the quotations of enterprises have stopped falling. Domestic spot corn has shown a strong fluctuation trend!
According to institutional analysis, at present, the pre-holiday stocking demand of feed enterprises is gradually completed, but some small and medium-sized feed enterprises still have the demand for replenishment, while deep processing enterprises have less inventory, and the enthusiasm for centralized warehouse opening is still high, and the market demand for corn is still strong.
As for the main grain farmers, although the price of grass-roots farmers is relatively high at present, due to the arrival of the New Year, farmers still have cash demand, and the domestic corn price will still fluctuate due to the quantity!
Personally, I think that in the short term, corn prices do not have the basis for further decline. After all, before the end of the year, there is a need to focus on building positions! After entering the Spring Festival, the tide grain in the northeast will be listed one after another. Mainstream enterprises will focus on inventory consumption, and some enterprises will focus on building positions. Corn prices will weaken mainly due to shocks. However, in April and May, due to the bottom of surplus grain at the grass-roots level, the shortage of domestic spot corn supply will gradually appear, and the operation of raising prices and ensuring quantity will increase. The domestic spot corn price will further strengthen, and the corn price is expected to rise above 3200 yuan/ton!
Third, the risk of rice price has increased sharply!
As the New Year holiday approaches, the domestic rice market will gradually stagnate. Many farmers are concerned about the trend of rice prices. Personally, at this stage, the risk of rice market has increased sharply, and the downward pressure on the market has intensified!
On the one hand, in japonica rice, signs of market decline are gradually emerging.
At present, in the northern region, the price of japonica rice is mostly stable at the high point of the year. At present, long-grain japonica rice tends to be weak and volatile, and the mainstream price remains at 1.65 ~ 1.7 yuan/kg.
Due to the deviation of the terminal market demand and the continuous influence of the mask problem, the demand for stocking in the downstream market is sluggish, and the decimeter enterprises in Northeast China have a certain sentiment of reducing prices and collecting grain.
In the northern region, the price of round japonica rice is also weak. The purchase price of round japonica rice has been reduced to 1.2 1 yuan/Jin in some basic grain points in Northeast China, while in some areas of Qiqihar, the price of round japonica rice has remained at 1.33 ~ 1.35 yuan. However, the phenomenon of market value is more obvious!
On the other hand, the price difference of rice varieties is obvious! At present, the price pressure of japonica rice is weak, but it has increased slightly in some areas of Jilin. Among them, the price of super rice in Baicheng area is around 1.5 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price is generally maintained at 1.45 ~ 1.5 yuan/kg. However, due to the export difficulties of super rice, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, rice enterprises are about to stop harvesting.
Personally, due to the influence of the domestic mask problem, although the restrictions on the movement of people have been gradually lifted after the landing of the "Ten Articles of New China", due to the cycle of consumption recovery and the early holidays of domestic colleges and universities, food and beverage consumption is still cold, while residents' mood of hoarding goods has cooled down, and the pressure of rice delivery years ago is greater, which will also limit the mood of rice enterprises to continue to raise prices and collect grain.
In addition, the domestic rice supply is relatively loose, the inventory of mainstream rice enterprises is high, and the imported rice continues to increase. Before this year 1 1 month, domestic rice imports reached 5.78 million tons, up 3 1.8% year-on-year! However, years later, grain depots all over the country completed the warehousing demand, and aged grain was gradually listed, further impacting the raw grain market. Therefore, under various factors, the rice market will continue to be under pressure, and the downside risk of the market will increase sharply!
Warning! Pig prices "can't go down", corn and wheat fluctuate violently, and the risk of rice increases sharply! What's wrong! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!