Early warning upgrade! Pig prices change face, corn rebounds in 4 major logics, cattle and sheep are "too worried", urea rises sharply

#Urea# In the blink of an eye, the first month of the year is coming to an end, and the market prices of agricultural products are mixed, and the majority of farmers are also mixed.

Today we will focus on talking to you about the market conditions of pigs, corn, cattle and sheep, as well as future trend expectations.

1. Pig prices have risen again

Following the fifth consecutive rise in pig prices in the past few days, pig prices have fallen slightly. However, driven by various favorable factors in the market, 2 On March 18, the price of live pigs across the country surged again.

The market shows: Central China, East China, and Northwest China have seen significant increases, Northeast China and North China have experienced local increases, and Southwest China has seen weaker trends.

Among them, 11 provinces and cities across the country saw pig prices rise. Anhui’s pig price increased by 2 cents per catty, with a quoted price of 7.5-7.75 yuan/catty; Jiangsu’s rose by 2 cents, with a price of 7.5-7.9 yuan/catty; Shanghai, Zhejiang, In Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places, prices rose by 0.05-0.15 yuan/jin. While 11 provinces rose, pig prices also fell slightly in 8 provinces, but overall they mainly increased. Details See the attached table:

After the Spring Festival, the live pig market fluctuated weakly. The main reasons for the current rebound are:

First, the news of national purchasing and stockpiling was solid, which significantly boosted the market. It is understood that Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will soon start the purchase and storage of 20,000 tons of reserve meat, which is also the first batch of purchases and stockpiling operations at the beginning of the year.

Second, pig futures suddenly surged, with the 03 pig contract rising by 4.26 percentage points and the 05 contract rising by 2.28 percentage points.

Third, due to the low pig price and the high willingness of pig raising entities to support the price and reluctance to sell, the number of pigs for slaughter is tight, which provides certain support to pig prices.

However, in my personal opinion, although the price of pigs has rebounded, since these rising factors are all short-term logic, it is difficult to be sustainable. In addition, it is currently in the off-season of pork consumption, and the elimination of excess production capacity is not enough. With other factors in place, after the rebound of live pigs, there is still an expectation of a fall, and the real turning point in pig prices will most likely occur in the third quarter.

2. Urea has soared

Spring plowing is around the corner. Affected by the increase in corn planting income in recent years, land rents have risen sharply. At present, the price of dry land in some areas of Heilongjiang has exceeded 13,000 yuan/hectare. , along with the price increase of production materials, it is understood that the price of chemical fertilizers, especially the price of urea, has also begun to rise sharply recently.

In the latest urea market on February 18, prices have increased in many regions: the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong has increased by 10 yuan per ton, and the mainstream quotation is 2670-2720 yuan/ton;

< p>In Henan, the average price increased by 20 yuan, with the mainstream quotation of small and medium-sized particles at 2,760-2,710 yuan/ton, and that of large particles at 2,770 yuan/ton;

In Hebei, the average price increased by 15 yuan, with the mainstream quotation of small and medium-sized particles at 2,760-2,700 yuan/ton. ;

The mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Shanxi increased by 20 yuan, with a quoted price of 2,570-2,690 yuan/ton;

The mainstream price of small and medium-sized particles in Shaanxi increased by 50 yuan, with a quoted price of 2,620-2,670 yuan/ton. / ton;

The mainstream quotation of small and medium-sized particles in Guangxi increased by 10 yuan, and the quotation was 2830-2850 yuan/ton;

The quotation in Guangdong increased by 20 yuan, and the quotation was 2870-2890 yuan/ton;

p>

In Liaoning, prices increased by 20 yuan, with quotations ranging from 2,700 to 2,720 yuan/ton.

Currently, the price of urea is rising due to the following reasons:

Firstly, preparations for spring plowing have started, and farmers are actively purchasing chemical fertilizers. The impact on the fertilizer market can be imagined. Chemical fertilizers During the peak consumption season, fertilizer prices will rise.

Second, urea futures prices have risen in recent days, which has given a certain boost to the current market.

Thirdly, the majority of farmers are worried about the price increase of fertilizers in the later period, and have a certain idea of ​​​​buying early and having peace of mind, which has led to the recent boom in the purchase and sale of fertilizers.

Although urea has risen recently, some industry insiders have reminded that due to the large inventory of chemical fertilizer markets in various places from autumn to now, the supply is relatively sufficient. Although it is the peak consumption season, the increase will not be too large. .

3. Corn rebound is imminent

First, let’s take a look at the current corn market situation:

The mainstream quotations of corn companies in Shandong are between 1.410-1.510 yuan, with an average price of 1.410-1.510 yuan. The quoted price is 1.460 yuan/jin; Heilongjiang Suihua Xiangyu Helenji Grain dropped 0.5 cents, 30 pieces of water 1.035 yuan/jin; Suihua Xiangyu Lanxi County Warehouse Logistics District dropped 5 cents, 30 pieces of water 1.03 yuan/jin; Jilin Songyuan Songling Grain depot: increased by 1.5 points, 20 moisture 1.2562 yuan/jin; Jilin fuel ethanol dropped 0.5 points, 1.365 yuan/ton, 30 moisture 1.0504 yuan/jin.

After the Spring Festival, the corn market has not been in good shape and has been running weakly. Compared with before the Spring Festival, the average price per ton has dropped by about 30-80 yuan. However, as we are about to enter late February, the corn market is also facing a downturn. There are some rebounding opportunities, and there are four specific logics:

First, the current market surplus is relatively limited. It is understood that the current sales progress in the main corn producing areas has exceeded 70%, and most of it is concentrated in some transportation areas. In remote areas, both ground and tide grains are running out, and the pressure on corn sales from the grassroots is gradually weakening.

The second factor is the one-time purchase and storage start-up factors of China Grain Reserves. At present, the purchase prices of grain depots that start purchase and storage are higher than the local market prices, which has a certain impact on farmers’ grain sales. The higher the price, the less likely they will sell it. The idea is relatively common.

Although there are not many places where it has been started, the significance of boosting corn prices is still far-reaching.

Third, people have high expectations for the future market, especially the reduction in corn production in 2022, coupled with the fact that there is still a certain gap in the corn market in 2023, which has led some traders and farmers to have high expectations for the market outlook and raise prices. The psychology is relatively strong.

Fourthly, the international situation is severe. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has lasted for one year has greatly affected the grain trade of the two major corn and other grain exporting countries. There is an expectation of a decline in international corn trade volume, which has a negative impact on international and domestic corn prices. It will also form a certain boosting logic.

In my personal opinion, there are expectations for a rebound in corn in the short term. However, due to the warming weather and the arrival of a small sales peak, the probability of corn prices falling back is relatively high. However, in the medium to long term, the corn market outlook is promising. , especially after May, there is a high probability that the corn market will rebound significantly, and there should be no suspense about the price returning to 1.5 yuan/jin.

4. The cattle and sheep market trend is tangled

As for the breeding industry, pig farming in 2022 will be about good times and then worries. There will be no less profit in the first three quarters and no less in the fourth quarter. Lose less money; Friends who raise cattle and sheep are still quite confused, because most farmers do not make much money, and there are also some friends who have high breeding costs and still suffer a slight loss.

In the blink of an eye, two months of 2023 have almost passed. Not only has the cattle and sheep market not turned around, but it has also continued to be sluggish. The prices of cattle and sheep have dropped compared with before the Spring Festival. Let’s take a look at the current market conditions:

p>

Let’s first take a look at the market cattle prices: Chahar Right Back Banner fattened cattle in Ulanqab City, Inner Mongolia, 15.06 yuan/jin, Ningcheng County, Chifeng City, 17 yuan/jin; Hebei fattened cattle 17-18.8 yuan; The price of beef cattle for slaughter in Wenshui County, Western Province is 17.3 yuan, and that of fattened cattle is 16.8-18.6 yuan/jin; the price of fattened cattle in Liaoning is 17-18.8 yuan/jin, and that in Yixian County is 17.5 yuan/jin; in Yitong Manchu Autonomous County, Siping City, Jilin, it is 17.22 yuan/jin. Dongfeng County, Liaoyuan City is 17.33 yuan/jin; Daqing fattened cattle in Heilongjiang is 17.5 yuan, and the average price of fattened cattle is 17.3 yuan/jin.

Let’s take a look at the market sheep prices: Hebei Tangxian Han sheep string 13.5 yuan, fine wool sheep string 13.8 yuan, Xinmin sheep 14.1 yuan; Xingtai large ewes 13.5 yuan per pound; Henan Luoyang male goat 17 yuan/ Jin; Henan Anyang rams weighing 110 Jin weigh 11 yuan/jin; Sanmenxia fattening sheep 13.5 yuan/jin; Shandong Yanwo Han sheep string 13.6 yuan/jin, fine wool sheep string 13.5 yuan/jin, Xinmin sheep 14.5 yuan/jin.

At present, the price of sheep and cattle is still at a low level. For farmers, if the cost is low, there will be some profits, and the enthusiasm of the majority of farmers will be damaged.

The reason: Mainly due to the current high breeding volume and sluggish beef and mutton consumption, it is difficult for cattle and sheep prices to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected that in the second half of the year, according to the cattle and sheep cycle forecast, it is possible Ushering in the turning point to turn upward.

After measuring, I would like to explain that although the current price of cattle and sheep is not high, the price of beef and mutton is still high, and the prices of other agricultural and sideline products such as pork and chicken are still not low. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs The latest monitoring data shows: the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.97 yuan/kg, up 1.9% from yesterday; beef 77.71 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from yesterday; mutton 68.23 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from yesterday; eggs 10.33 Yuan/kg, up 0.3% from yesterday; white strip chicken is 18.27 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from yesterday.

Dear friends, have the prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs increased in your area? How much does a pound cost in the current market? Welcome to share it with everyone for reference by friends across the country.