What is the forecast of accumulated temperature in Gannan County, Qiqihar City (the third accumulated temperature zone) in 2011?
At the beginning of 2011, the Heilongjiang Provincial Meteorological Bureau organized an annual short-term climate forecast analysis meeting and an annual scenario analysis meeting, and conducted serious discussions on early climate conditions, annual climate predictions and annual scenarios. A comprehensive analysis concluded that : This year’s precipitation is normal, the temperature is slightly higher, the heat during the growing season is sufficient, and the overall meteorological conditions are better than normal but slightly worse than last year. It is a good year (compared with the average of the past five years). The main disasters that affect agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province include local drought in the west in spring and waterlogging in parts of the east, periodic low temperatures in late spring, periodic drought in summer and local floods in late summer, and early frost in autumn.
1. General trends of weather and climate
The general climate trend of the province is expected from March to October 2011: the temperature is slightly higher, the heat in the growing season is higher than normal and less than last year; precipitation is normal .
Spring: There is slightly more precipitation in most areas in spring, which is less than last year. The precipitation is mainly in late spring, including southern Daxinganling, Heihe, southern Yichun, Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Harbin, eastern Jiamusi, and Shuangyashan. The eastern part, Mudanjiang, and Jixi are about 10% higher than normal, and other areas are 10% to 20% lower than normal. The average spring temperature in most parts of the province is close to normal, with frequent cold air activities in early spring and late spring. The phased cooling process is obvious and the temperature is normal. Slightly lower; final frost normal.
Summer: Summer precipitation is normal, mainly local precipitation, and precipitation is more concentrated in late summer. Among them, southern Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe, and Jixi are about 10% more than normal. In other areas, the temperature is about 10% lower than normal; summer temperatures are slightly higher, with the province's average temperature being about 0.5°C higher than normal.
Autumn: The precipitation in most parts of the province in autumn is 10% to 20% less than in normal years; the temperature in autumn is slightly higher, with a downward trend compared with recent years. The average temperature in the province is 0.2 to 0.5°C higher than in normal years. The first frost Normally it is slightly earlier, on average 1 to 3 days earlier than normal.
2. Prediction and analysis of agricultural meteorological disasters
1. Local soil drought in the western part of the country in spring and periodic soil drought in summer. The average precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in the autumn of 2010 was 40mm, 50% less than the same period in previous years, which is not conducive to the increase of soil moisture. The results of the last moisture measurement before the freeze in 2010 (November 8) showed that the tillage layer (0-10cm) in most of the 34 counties and cities in southwest China was arid and the soil moisture was poor, among which 9 counties and cities were in severe drought. , which has an important impact on the moisture content of the soil after it thaws in spring, greatly increasing the possibility of drought in the cultivated soil in spring. As of the end of early January, Heilongjiang Province was covered with snow, and the depth of snow in major agricultural areas was more than 10cm, which is conducive to soil moisture conservation in winter. According to predictions, spring precipitation in most dry areas is about 10% more than normal, which is very important for alleviating drought conditions. More advantageous. Based on the above analysis: It is expected that the soil drought in Heilongjiang Province during the spring sowing period this year will be mainly localized, and the drought areas are mainly located in the western part of Heilongjiang Province. It is expected that some areas in Heilongjiang Province will experience periodic shortages of water in summer, so field crops are more likely to encounter periodic droughts in the seedling stage.
2. Periodic low temperature in late spring. It is predicted that the phased cooling process in Heilongjiang Province will be obvious in late spring, which will have certain adverse effects on crop sowing and emergence.
3. Short-term flooding in the east in spring and localized flooding in late summer.
4. Different degrees of local diseases or insect pests may occur.
5. Sudden disasters such as hail, heavy rain, and mudslides may occur locally.
3. Analysis of the impact of meteorological conditions on agricultural production
1. Sowing period: According to the above analysis, meteorological conditions during this spring sowing period have certain adverse effects on sowing. It is important to pay attention to the periodic low temperature in late spring, which will affect normal sowing and seedling emergence in fields in most areas, and may reduce the seedling emergence rate. Secondly, we should pay attention to the local soil drought in the west and the short-term waterlogging in some parts of the east, which will be detrimental to the timely sowing of field crops and affect the sowing quality.
2. Field growth period: This year’s meteorological conditions are relatively favorable for the growth of field crops. Precipitation is normal throughout the summer, temperatures are slightly higher, and crops can grow vigorously in most areas. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, which is mainly concentrated in midsummer, periodic droughts, floods, local pests and diseases, hail, and heavy rains are prominent, which will have certain adverse effects on the normal growth and development of local crops.
3. Grain filling and maturation period: In autumn, the temperature is slightly higher and the precipitation in most areas of the province is 10% to 20% less than normal years, which is very beneficial to the grain filling and maturation of crops. However, the first frost is 1 to 3 days earlier than normal, making it difficult for extremely late-maturing crops to mature safely.
4. Agricultural Production Suggestions
It is recommended that this year’s agricultural production deployment arrangements and disaster prevention and reduction should focus on drought resistance, waterlogging prevention and prevention of post-spring low temperatures.
1. Fully consider the heat conditions during the growth period of local crops when selecting crop varieties. Although the heat conditions this year are slightly more than normal, they are not as good as last year. Therefore, it is recommended that all regions prohibit cross-regional planting, and early, middle and Properly mix late-maturing varieties and try not to plant extremely late-maturing varieties.
2. Carefully prepare for spring plowing, select seeds, inspect and repair agricultural machinery in advance, and seize favorable weather to carry out soil preparation, harrowing, manure delivery and other agricultural activities as soon as possible.
3. It is recommended to do a good job in ensuring spring planting.
Arid areas, especially the western part of Heilongjiang Province, should focus on protecting, increasing and robbing moisture, intercepting peach blossom water, making full use of rainwater resources, and strive to sow and preserve seedlings in one go; in the eastern waterlogged areas, pay attention to drainage and plowing to disperse moisture, increase ground temperature, and strive for spring sowing. Carry out timely; at the same time, make preparations to prevent low temperatures in the later spring. If necessary, take measures such as covering and fumigation to prevent low temperatures and ensure normal sowing of crops.
4. All regions should pay close attention to weather changes, strengthen field management, scientific shoveling, and rational fertilization to ensure normal growth and development of crops.
5. Heilongjiang Province is prone to disasters such as hail, strong winds, and heavy rains in summer. Where conditions permit, preparations for hail elimination, waterlogging prevention, and periodic drought resistance should be made as early as possible, and special attention should be paid to Do a good job in preventing and controlling agricultural diseases and insect pests.