Warning! Pig prices across the country have plummeted, grain prices and egg prices have risen simultaneously, and sheep prices are "too worrying"
At the end of the month, the agricultural product market once again ushered in a changing pattern. Live pigs turned from rising to falling, and continued to fall sharply; grain prices, corn and wheat rose hand in hand, and market enthusiasm was high; sheep prices also recovered, with some prices The price of sheep in the region is encouraging.
So what is the situation in the market? How will the market perform next? Let’s take a look:
1. Live pigs continue to fall, and meat prices rise instead of falling
In recent days, the live pig market has continued to fall. The latest quotation shows: the average price of live pigs has dropped to 13.61 yuan/jin, an average decrease of 0.22 yuan, and low-price areas such as Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, and Gansu are about to fall below the 13 yuan mark.
On October 26, in the national pig market, with the exception of Hainan Province, all other places experienced declines to varying degrees. The provinces with the highest declines were:
Zhejiang pig prices fell per catty 5 cents, the mainstream price is 14.0-14.3 yuan/jin; Fujian fell by 4 cents, 14.0-14.4 yuan/jin; Jiangxi fell 4 cents, 13.6-14.1 yuan/jin; Shaanxi fell 4 cents, 13.0-13.6 yuan/jin; Chongqing fell 0.35 yuan, the mainstream price is 13.55-14.1 yuan/jin.
The price of pigs in Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Beijing, Tianjin, Gansu and other places generally fell by 3 cents, and fell by 0.1-0.25 yuan in other regions. Please see the attached table for specific quotations:
From the perspective of the downward trend, the decline is still continuing. Regarding the reasons for this decline:
First, the main pig farmers have loosened their mentality to bear the price. In October, the pig market fluctuated frequently. After entering the second half of the year, It is obvious that the rise is weak, and some breeding entities are not willing to hold down the price. In some places, there is even panic, and they are eager to sell pigs for safety, which has led to a great increase in the pressure to sell pigs in recent days.
Second, the country has released a large amount of reserve pork. Starting from September, it has successively released reserve pork, increasing the supply capacity of the pork market, and playing a positive stabilizing role in the rise of pig prices.
Third, the consumer side is not strong. On the one hand, due to economic factors and mask factors, the income of some residents has shrunk and their purchasing power has declined; on the other hand, because the price of pork has risen higher and higher, the current mainstream retail prices in various places have The price reaches 22-25 yuan/jin, and in some places the price of ribs reaches 30 yuan/jin, making it really difficult for ordinary low-income families to buy and consume.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 35.25 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from yesterday; beef is 78.47 yuan/kg, up 1.3% from yesterday; mutton is 68.49 yuan/kg, An increase of 1.2% from yesterday; eggs are 12.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.4% from yesterday.
Fourthly, the number of live pigs in stock is not low, which will not push the price of pigs to such a high level. The price of pigs rose some time ago because some speculators engaged in secondary fattening, and the pigs that should have been supplied to the market were once again Fattening and weight gain have led to tight supply. This situation has been greatly reduced at present.
As for the market outlook, I personally believe that due to the dual impact of the falling logic of pig prices and the traditional peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, the room for a fall in pig prices should be relatively limited, but it is not easy to see a sharp rise. The high probability will be around 13.5 Fluctuate between -14.5 yuan.
2. Corn and wheat rose hand in hand
In recent days, the corn and wheat markets have both strengthened, and the market popularity has further increased.
The wheat market has seen another large-scale increase: the purchase price of Zaozhuang, a developed flour company, has increased by 1 cent, with a quoted price of 1.61 yuan/catty; the purchase price of Heze Huarui Flour Industry has increased by 1 cent, with a quoted price of 1.62 yuan/catty; Shenzhou Wu Deli rose by 0.8 points, with a quoted price of 1.625 yuan/catty; Damingwu Deli rose by 1 point, with a quoted price of 1.624/catty; Zhiqingnianye rose by 1.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.61 yuan/catty; Xingtai Baixiang Wudeli rose by 1 point, with a quoted price of 1.624 yuan/catty. The price is 1.635 yuan/jin.
Wudeli Flour Mill in Tancheng, Linyi City rose by 1 cent, with a quotation of 1.615 yuan/jin.
The market generally believes that there are several reasons for the rise in wheat prices:
First, it is the second half of wheat sales. Ordinary farmers do not have much wheat surplus in their hands, and most of it is concentrated in traders. In hands, the pace of sales directly affects the rise and fall of wheat prices.
Secondly, because the market is generally bullish on the outlook for wheat, with higher price expectations, grain holders have varying degrees of reluctance to sell, resulting in rising wheat prices.
Third, because the period from now to the Spring Festival is the peak season for flour consumption, some processing companies have increased their procurement efforts in preparation for the Spring Festival market.
It is for these reasons that wheat prices have risen steadily.
In the corn market, although the trend of corn is not as good as that of wheat, it also performs well. The corn market situation: Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade adjusted to 1.45 yuan/jin, Xiangrui Pharmaceutical adjusted to 1.405 yuan/jin, Fu The price of Kuan Bio's corn moisture ≤17% is 1.425 yuan;
Zhucheng Yuanfa has adjusted the price to 1.46 yuan per catty with moisture below 15, and the price of Rizhao Jinhe Boyuan is 1.47 yuan per catty; Henan Mengzhou Houyuan Bio The purchase price increased by 1.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.46 yuan/catty; Changqing Biotech increased by 1.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.41 yuan/catty; Liaoning Yihai Kerry rose by 1.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.34 yuan/catty; Xiaoxian Golden Corn fell by 1.5 points, with a quoted price of 1.41 yuan/catty. Yuan/jin.
The rise in the corn market is relatively moderate, mostly due to local rotation in regions, slowly pushing up corn prices.
According to normal logic, we are currently at the peak of corn market volume, and corn prices should have fallen back. So why did they rise instead of falling? Investigating the reasons, relevant experts recently gave the answer:
First, demand factors. Due to the diversification of acquisition entities and high enthusiasm for acquisitions, it mainly comes from the recovery of pig production capacity, coupled with the lower price of corn and wheat than that of wheat. 0.2 yuan or more, leading to a significant increase in demand for feed corn.
The second is the increase in production costs. The cost of corn production this year is significantly higher than the previous two years. The land rent for some farmers has reached 12,000-13,000 yuan. In addition to the cost of chemical fertilizers, agriculture, seeds, and labor Due to the price increase factors, the production cost of a pound of corn has increased by at least 3-5 cents compared with last year, causing farmers to have a certain reluctance to sell.
Third, the recent situation of China Grain Reserves auctions in some areas is relatively optimistic, with high reserve prices, high transaction rates, and high premiums, which has boosted the corn market.
As for the market outlook, with the further increase in the amount of corn on the market, the probability of a sharp rise in corn before the end of December is small, and a slight decline cannot be ruled out. However, the mid- to long-term price of corn Firmly bullish and relatively optimistic.
3. Egg prices continue to rise
Recently, egg prices have rebounded, but the scope of today's increase has narrowed, and egg prices have fallen in some areas.
The latest egg quotation: the average egg price in Northeast China is 5.30-6.27 yuan/jin, in North China it is 5.5-6.4 yuan/jin, in East China the egg price is higher, 5.87-6.8 yuan/jin; in central China it is 5.85 -6.7 yuan/jin; in the northwest region, 5.7-6.8 yuan/jin.
Looking at specific regions: Qingdao Zhengxu fell by 5 yuan, 285 yuan/45 catties; Qingdao Danmeng fell by 0.2 yuan, 6.05 yuan/catties; Zhucheng, Anqiu, Changle and other places generally fell by 5 yuan, 285 yuan/45 catties; Laiwu, Jinan, Zouping and other places fell by 5 yuan, 265 yuan/45 catties; Ningjin, Leling, Qingyun, Xinyang, Zhanhua and other places generally dropped 8 yuan, 230 yuan/40 catties; Jiangsu In some areas such as Xuzhou, Suqian and Huai'an, prices generally fell by 4 yuan, to 180 yuan/30 kilograms; in Taizhou, Haian, Yancheng and other places, prices fell by 0.15 yuan, to 6.15 yuan/jin.
Fushun, Tongliao, Benxi, Liaoyang, Haijiangcheng, Anshan, Shenyang and other places in Liaoning generally fell by 3 yuan, 178 yuan/30 catties; Zhoukou, Jiaozuo, Xinyang, Liaoyang, Xinxiang and other places in Henan generally fell by 0.2 Yuan, 5.9 yuan/jin; Nanyang, Pingdingshan, Zhumadian, Sanmenxia and other places generally fell by 0.2 yuan, 5.95 yuan/jin.
The continuous decline in egg prices should be a normal decline in the market. The reasons are:
First, the price of eggs has increased too much some time ago, and the retail price in some areas has even exceeded 7 yuan. The decline is The market’s inevitable choice.
Second, terminal consumption cannot keep up. The price of eggs is so high. Even in one of our local counties, it has reached 6.4 yuan/jin. The amount and number of people buying eggs are decreasing.
Third, after entering October, egg consumption enters the traditional off-season, which has a certain impact on egg prices.
4. Sheep prices begin to recover
In recent days, sheep prices have begun to rebound slightly, and sheep prices have begun to rise slowly in some areas, which is undoubtedly good news for sheep farmers.
The latest sheep price display:
Inner Mongolia Mo Banner 30 catties male lamb 660 yuan/catty, Hebei Qinhuangdao Han sheep female cake weighing 30 catties 450 yuan/head, male cake 600 yuan/ only; Hebei Tangxian small-tailed Han sheep skewers are 12.8 yuan/catty, fine-wool sheep skewers are 13.2 yuan/catty, and Xinmin sheep are 13.5/catty;
Heilongjiang Beian goats weighing 80 catties are 1,500 yuan/goat, and Liaoning Fuxin goats are 1500 yuan/catty. A 30-jin lamb weighs 720 yuan/cat, and a 30-jin ewe lamb costs 530 yuan/cat; 14 fattening Hu sheep in Shouxian County, Huainan, Anhui, and 10.5-11.40 yuan/catty for cull ewes; 16.0 yuan/catty for fattening sheep in Shanghe County, Jinan; Shandong Yi Shui County fattening sheep is 16.67 yuan/jin.
Judging from the above quotations, prices have indeed increased compared with August and September. Although the magnitude is not large, farmers also see hope.
Sheep prices have picked up recently. The main reason is that the weather has gradually turned colder and mutton consumption has entered the peak season. Roast mutton and mutton hotpot are popular in various places, which has a certain boost to sheep prices.
As for the next sheep price trend, I personally feel that the rebound is relatively limited, and there are many unfavorable factors:
First, because the sheep cycle has not yet arrived, and many experts predict that it will occur next year The turning point of an upward trend.
The second is that the current sheep population is relatively high, and many farmers are leaving the market one after another, putting pressure on the market.
The third is that due to the impact of the global economic recession, the mask incident, etc., income is lower than expected. , consumption power declines.
In general, sheep prices may remain strong before the Spring Festival, but there is no need to be overly optimistic.
Dear friends, the current price of pork and eggs is too high, and the price of mutton remains high. How much does it cost per pound in your place? Welcome to share it with netizens across the country for comparison and reference.