What concept stocks will be affected by India’s rice export tax?
Which concept stocks will be affected by India’s imposition of rice export taxes?
According to reports, Indian food department officials recently stated that India’s rice production is showing a downward trend, which makes the Indian government likely to restrict grain exports. , which may trigger an increase in food prices in some countries. So today, the editor is here to sort out the rice export taxes levied by India. Let’s take a look!
India’s grain production has dropped significantly, and international grain prices continue to remain high
It is reported that India has The main reason for this reduction in grain production was that four states suffered from drought, which affected an area of 2.5 million hectares, resulting in a decrease in grain production of approximately 7 million to 8 million tons. As one of the world's major grain-producing areas, its rice products are exported to more than 150 countries around the world, and its trade volume accounts for 40% of global rice trade. The chairman of the Indian Rice Exporters Association predicts that white rice and brown rice affected by tariffs account for more than 60% of India's rice exports, and the export price of rice may rise from the current US$350 per ton (approximately RMB 2,423) to more than US$400.
Currently, affected by the international political situation and global extreme weather, international food prices continue to remain high. Although food prices have fallen recently due to the resumption of exports of agricultural products at Ukrainian ports, food prices remain high. Analysts believe that high energy and fertilizer prices have pushed up the cost of growing grains. At the same time, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather such as floods and droughts continues to intensify the impact on the agricultural product market. According to the latest cereal production forecast for 2022 recently released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, it has significantly lowered the production outlook. Global cereal production in 2022 is expected to drop by 38.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4%.
AVIC Securities pointed out that climate disturbances affect food supply and demand, and global ending stocks of wheat, corn and rice have decreased compared with the previous year. According to USDA's latest forecast, extreme hot weather has swept across the European Union, the United States and other places. Global corn and rice production in 2022/23 have been reduced by 6.29 million tons and 2.32 million tons respectively from the previous month's forecast. Domestically, floods in the north and drought in the south will affect corn production. The recovery in breeding profits has boosted corn feed consumption, coupled with a reduction in imports. In August, it was predicted that the domestic corn balance in 22/23 would be only 40,000 tons, a decrease of 4.79 million tons from the previous year. Expectations for a reduction in global grain production are increasing, supply and demand for some agricultural products are still tight, and grain prices may remain at a high level.
The seed industry policy is catalyzed again, focusing on industry leading targets
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced the first batch of 72 national crop germplasm resource banks (nurseries) and 19 national agricultural List of microbial germplasm resource banks, and accelerate the improvement of my country's agricultural germplasm resource protection system. In the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will organize the signing of a tripartite agreement on a national germplasm resource bank with local agricultural and rural departments to implement the tripartite responsibilities of provincial authorities, territorial governments and conservation entities. At present, relevant policies for the domestic seed industry continue to advance. At the same time, the current high international grain prices have helped boost seed demand, and the prosperity of the seed industry continues to increase.
Sinolink Securities pointed out that the seed sector generally has higher gross profit margins in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the seed sector's profits will improve. The current international situation is still unclear, and recent weather conditions may cause crop yield reductions in some areas, which may continue to push up international food prices. The importance of domestic food security continues to be emphasized. As the country strongly recommends the development of seed industry technology, the technical barriers of seed companies are expected to increase, and the implementation of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate. It is recommended to pay attention to leading seed companies with obvious advantages in genetically modified technology and core breeding advantages.
In terms of beneficiary targets, Zheshang Securities pointed out that the international grain prices in the planting chain fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the improvement of Daodaoquan and Arowana extraction; at the same time, attention should be paid to targets related to the genetically modified seed industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to Dabeinong (genetically modified traits) Rich reserves, obvious first-mover advantage), Longping Hi-tech (leading corn and rice seeds, joint-stock companies with many genetically modified traits).
Grain production concept stocks in 2022
1. Longping High-Tech: In terms of earnings per share, the company’s earnings per share from 2018 to 2021 were 0.63 yuan, -0.23 yuan, and 0.09 yuan respectively. , 0.05 yuan.
Looking back on the past 30 trading days, Longping Hi-Tech's stock price fell by 1.07%, its total market value increased by 896 million, and its current market value is 20.9 billion yuan. The stock price fell -51.23% in 2022.
2. Shennong Technology: In terms of earnings per share, the company’s earnings per share from 2018 to 2021 were 0.02 yuan, -0.32 yuan, -0.12 yuan, and -0.06 yuan respectively.
By establishing a "one-stop grain production supply chain management service" agricultural professional cooperative, hybrid rice seeds are sold to farmers and comprehensive supporting services are provided. The produced grain is then purchased by the United Rice Processing Plant. Processed into rice for external sale. Net profit in the first three quarters was 35.1498 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140.23%.
Reviewing the past 30 trading days, Shennong Technology rose 5.31%, with the highest price being 5.15 yuan, and the total trading volume was 1.029 billion lots.
3. Jinjian Rice Industry: In terms of earnings per share, the company’s earnings per share from 2018 to 2021 were -0.08 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and -0.04 yuan respectively.
In the past 30 trading days, Jinjian Rice Industry has risen on 16 days, with an overall increase of 2.42% during the period, with the highest price being 9.42 yuan and the lowest price being 8.8 yuan.
Compared with 30 trading days ago, the market value of Jinjian Rice Industry increased by 141 million yuan, an increase of 2.42%.
4. Denghai Seed Industry: In terms of earnings per share, the company’s earnings per share from 2018 to 2021 were 0.04 yuan, 0.05 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.26 yuan respectively.
However, with the advancement of the country’s “three zones” construction and the delineation of 1.04 billion acres of “two zones” (grain production functional areas and important agricultural product production protection zones), the total domestic demand for corn seeds has The quantity will become stable and there will be no room for new growth in quantity.
Denghai Seed Industry’s stock price rose 7.79% in the past 30 days, with the highest price being 22.47 yuan and the lowest price being 20.21 yuan. The current market value is 19.325 billion yuan, and the stock price will fall -18.94% in 2022.
5. Beidahuang: Beidahuang’s earnings per share, from 2018 to 2021, were 0.55 yuan, 0.48 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.48 yuan respectively.
The company is currently the largest listed company in China focusing on grain production, with significant advantages in scale, resources, technology, equipment, management, and green products.