Can I travel with peace of mind during the Spring Festival holiday on New Year's Day? Is the tour safe?
Since 20 10 to 20 10 and 12, the temperature in most parts of China has been continuously decreasing, and sporadic epidemics have appeared in many parts of the country.
In less than half a month, local confirmed cases and asymptomatic infection cases appeared in Jiaozhou, Shandong, Chengdu, Sichuan, Manzhouli, Dongning, Suifenhe, Turpan and other places.
Sporadic outbreaks have occurred in many places.
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China CDC, recently reminded the public in an interview with the media that where there is an epidemic, the probability of another outbreak in winter is greater than that in other places. But this does not mean that there will be no epidemics elsewhere. Outbreaks may occur in places and things involving foreigners' entry.
He emphasized that since the winter, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 has risen sharply in most overseas countries, and the number of infected people and contaminated items are increasing. There is increasing pressure on domestic anti-import, anti-humanity and anti-matter. In this global context, there are many sporadic cases in China, which is a normal phenomenon of normalization of prevention and control.
Regarding the risk of epidemic spread during the Spring Festival, Ceng Guang, a member of National Health Commission Senior Expert Group and chief scientist of China CDC, said that there was a large-scale personnel flow during the National Day this year, which was considered as a stress test. Facts have proved that as long as the prevention and control measures are appropriate, the risks can be completely controlled.
However, experts stressed that the situation during the Spring Festival is different. On the one hand, the scale of population movement during Spring Festival travel rush is much larger than that during the National Day. On the other hand, the lower the temperature in winter, the longer the virus lives. In addition, people will visit relatives and friends during festivals, and large-scale indoor gatherings will also increase the risk of epidemic spread in COVID-19, so the risk of epidemic prevention and control during the Spring Festival will definitely increase.
Ceng Guang believes that although there is a large flow of people during the Spring Festival, as long as there are no infected people in the crowd, there will be no large-scale epidemic. From this perspective, it is no problem for everyone to go home for the New Year. But this year's Spring Festival will definitely not encourage mutual visits or large-scale indoor gatherings.
Is it safe to go out on New Year's Day and Spring Festival?
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China CDC: Generally speaking, in places where epidemics have already occurred, the probability of recurrence in winter is greater than in other places.
But this does not mean that there will be no epidemics elsewhere. Outbreaks may occur in places and things involving foreigners' entry.
Why does the epidemic happen again in the epidemic area?
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China CDC: In cold winter, especially when the temperature is very low, it will be more difficult to carry out epidemiological investigation.
There are two main aspects of epidemiological investigation: one is face-to-face investigation between people, which is a classic and traditional way to ask patients and close contacts where they have been in the past and who they have contacted.
Second, people's memory may not be so complete, and they can clearly remember everything in the past, which requires modern technology, including mobile phone scanning code and other recordable action trajectory information.
Therefore, when the temperature is particularly low in winter, the functions of these new technologies, such as mobile phones, will be affected, which may have some impact on epidemiological survey data, especially the assistance of big data.