It's good news again. Pig prices are on fire in an all-round way, forming a "smile curve" at the bottom of the pig market.
Looking at the rising pig prices in the north and south, many farmers' heavy mood has been alleviated, and their tight cheeks have also smiled. Here comes the problem. What is the reason for the current increase in pig prices? One is that the price of pigs has fallen to a new low, and the willingness to raise prices at the breeding end has increased; The other is that the price of pork is cheaper than these lettuce, and the consumption side has picked up.
Another is that the recent rain and snow weather, epidemic control and other factors have affected the transportation and superposition of pigs and pigs with white stripes, and the domestic logistics and transportation costs have risen. The ex-factory price of white pigs in some slaughterhouses rose by 500 yuan/ton on average. Supported by the strong price of pigs with white stripes, the phenomenon of raising the price of pigs in slaughterhouses has become prominent, and the increase in pig prices in the domestic pig market has rebounded, which has led to a "contrarian increase" in pig prices in many places in the domestic market.
According to Weather Network, from 24th to 27th, affected by cold and warm air, there will be a new round of large-scale rain and snow cooling weather in the central and eastern regions. Some areas in Gansu, eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places have small to medium snow or sleet, local heavy snow, small to moderate rain in most parts of North China and South China, heavy rain in parts of South China, and the temperature drops by 4 ~ 6℃ from west to east. Local drop 10℃ or above. Meteorologists have warned that there have been frequent rains in South China and other places recently, the roads are slippery and the visibility is declining. Please pay attention to traffic safety when traveling, and everyone needs to take precautions.
According to the analysis of insiders, although the current pig price shows a contrarian reversal and the pig price forms a "smile curve", it is still necessary to be alert to a risk. Because the upward trend of pig prices is affected by many uncontrollable factors, after all, in rainy and snowy weather, it is difficult for farmers to maintain a normal rhythm of slaughter in order to prevent the epidemic from escalating, which also aggravates the tight market supply. This reduction in slaughter at the breeding end is not a real "decline" in pig productivity.
From the perspective of market supply and demand fundamentals, because the inertia of live pigs is still increasing, and the consumer market is still at a low point in the year, the price difference between North and South is insufficient, and the market lacks the enthusiasm for dispatching. With the sharp rise in pig prices, the cautious mood of some traders has become stronger, and the support for the rise in pig prices has gradually weakened. This round of pig price increase may be a "flash in the pan", leaving few opportunities for farmers to sell. It is suggested that farmers should arrange slaughter planning reasonably and not blindly.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, there were 449 million live pigs in China at the end of last year, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
These pigs will be put on the market from June to June in 65438. It is estimated that the market volume of live pigs and pork supply will be at a high level in the first half of this year. At the same time, since June last year, the prices of feed raw materials, especially corn and soybean meal, have risen sharply, which has had a great impact on the cost of pig breeding, which has caused no small cost pressure on both retail farmers and large-scale breeding enterprises, but at the consumption end. There is no substantial favorable opportunity. It is expected that the downward trend of pig prices will continue for some time. It is hoped that the majority of farmers will keep a close eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, and step on the right rhythm to survive the relatively difficult stage of pig production and operation in the near future.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 25% and fell by 1, and the rising areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas. The overall hog market is almost in a "comprehensive rise" trend.
# Pig price #
(Source: Pig Price System)
On the whole, compared with yesterday, today's pig market is "higher", and the price of pigs in many places is "from 5 to 6". However, the main reason for the increase in pig prices has not changed significantly on the consumer side. On the contrary, the consumer market continues to be sluggish, but due to the spread of cases in many places in China and the rain and snow weather, the number of live pigs sold has decreased significantly, making it more difficult to purchase live pigs. Therefore, slaughterhouses passively raise prices to collect pigs, and it is more difficult to market pig prices.
Judging from the wholesale prices of white striped pigs in Beijing and Shanghai, the prices of white striped pigs in Beijing and Shanghai are on the rise, and the prices of white striped pigs in Beijing market are rising by 0.5 yuan/kg, showing good market trading enthusiasm; The average transaction price in Shanghai market is rising, and the average price in some markets is rising 1. 10-2.40 yuan/kg. This market is greatly influenced by the local COVID-19, and many markets have stopped trading.
The ex-factory price of white bars in northern producing areas rose by 200-600 yuan/ton. After the price increase, the enthusiasm of traders for receiving goods was obviously weakened, and the increase of some enterprises was basically in the thunder and rain.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises began to show some differentiation. The procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises in Northeast China has weakened, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers has increased, and the number of slaughter enterprises has increased. The procurement difficulty of pigs in slaughter enterprises in other regions still exists. Most pig prices of breeding groups have risen, while some pig farms in the north have weakened, some high-priced pig enterprises have surged back, while pig prices of southern pig enterprises have continued to rise, and the number of pigs listed by leading enterprises on behalf of the region has increased.
Market trend of live pig prices tomorrow: combined with the recent comprehensive factors of the live pig market, it is expected that the live pig prices will continue to show a "large-scale increase" trend tomorrow, but the overall increase will be weakened.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics. We can not only raise pigs, but also sell pigs, because we are apprentices who can raise pigs, and we are masters who can sell pigs.