Analyze the present situation and prospect of South China Sea issue in China.

Before the 1960s, China's sovereign rights and interests in the South China Sea were basically not seriously challenged. In the late 1960s, the United Nations organized an expedition from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea. An American scientist marveled at the rich natural resources in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, especially oil and natural gas resources, and exclaimed that this sea area is the "second bay". Since then, many neighboring countries in the East China Sea and the South China Sea have successively claimed sovereignty, especially some Southeast Asian countries, and even began to send troops to seize the islands of the Nansha Islands. By the end of August 1973, South Vietnam had occupied six islands of Nansha Islands and Xisha Islands in China. 1974 1, China People's Liberation Army responded by force, which made South Vietnam honest for some time. In the 1980s, the abundant resources in the South China Sea were coveted by more countries, and some islands and reefs were gradually occupied by countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. This "gradual" process is generally carried out through public opinion, diplomatic exploration, expelling China fishing boats and actually controlling the surrounding waters.

Up to 2000, of the 52 large islands and reefs in Nansha Islands, China only controlled 9 (including Taiping Island Reef controlled by Taiwan Province Province of China), Viet Nam occupied 29 islands and reefs in Nansha Islands, illegally occupied 9 islands and reefs, and Malaysian occupied 5 islands and reefs. According to the territorial sea, continental shelf and exclusive economic zone declared by the governments of these countries, Vietnamese invasion into the sea area within the China discontinuous line can reach more than 6,543,800 square kilometers, Philippine 4,654,380 square kilometers and Malaysian 270,000 square kilometers. Indonesia proposed to take Natuna Islands as the baseline. The 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone has also entered the China Intermittent Line. Brunei unilaterally claimed the exclusive economic zone, occupying about 3,000 square kilometers of the China Interrupted Line. By 2005, China only controlled eight islands and reefs in Nansha Islands (including Taiping Island controlled by Taiwan Province Province), and the other 44 islands and reefs were basically divided by neighboring countries. Among them, there are 29 in Vietnam, 5 in Philippines 10 and Malaysia. In addition, Viet Nam also claims sovereignty over the Xisha Islands under the actual control of China. Many smaller islands and reefs in the South China Sea are also under the control of other countries, and the "Nine-Segment Line" has existed in name only. In this way, the disputes over the South Island Reef in China mainly include the disputes between Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, China, Taiwan Province Province of China and the four countries and five parties. In the competition for the South China Sea of China, more countries are involved, including Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, China and Taiwan Province Province of China. * * * The dispute among six countries and seven parties. By 2009, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries will expand their construction on the islands and reefs they occupy, and gradually realize "normalization of garrison, permanence of fortifications and deepening of positions". They changed their policy of seizing islands and reefs, expanded the scope of "sovereignty", and turned to strengthen the "effective occupation" of Nansha Islands by paying equal attention to military control, administrative management and economic development in an attempt to legalize the "sovereignty" of Nansha Islands.

The latest oil and gas exploration shows that there are 24 oil-bearing basins in the South China Sea, and the estimated oil and gas reserves are about 42 billion tons. Among them, China's intermittent oil reserves are about 29.5 billion tons, and natural gas 10 trillion cubic meters. In July 2004, the China government approved the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, and the exploration and development mainly focused on the northern continental shelf. Most of the oil in the southern South China Sea is stored on the continental shelf of neighboring countries. If the ownership of oil resources is determined according to the principle of continental shelf, China has no advantage. According to the legal status of the discontinuous line, China can have the right to explore and develop oil and gas resources in the sea area within the discontinuous line. By 2006, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries have attracted more than 60 foreign oil companies to participate in the development of the South China Sea through international bidding, drilling more than 600 wells and extracting more than 50 million tons of oil every year, which is equivalent to the annual output of Daqing Oilfield in China. Among them, there are 18 Malaysian oilfields exploited in the China discontinuous line, and many oil and gas wells go deep into the discontinuous line 100 nautical mile. Vietnam has signed more than 30 contracts with more than 50 foreign oil companies, and the annual output of oil in the South China Sea has reached11million tons.

The South China Sea Islands and their adjacent waters are veritable cornucopia, not only rich in products, but also considerable in seabed mineral deposits. Among them, the reserves of phosphate rock reach more than 250,000 tons, exceeding the sum of the world-famous phosphate rock producing areas of Chile, Peru and Africa.

1Since June, 1997, Malaysian naval vessels have expanded their reconnaissance and patrol scope to the sea area north of 8 degrees north latitude, and air force aircraft have also frequently conducted reconnaissance and patrol on the islands and reefs and "exclusive economic zones" occupied by them. Since 1998, Malaysia's defense in the southeast of Nansha Islands has basically become a whole, which can control the area of about 1/4 of Nansha Islands.

The Philippines constantly sends more ships and planes to patrol Nansha Islands and Huangyan Island in zhongsha islands, demolishes and blows up China's sovereignty and inspection marks on uninhabited reefs, delineates "forbidden zones" for foreign fishing boats, arbitrarily detains China fishing boats operating in Nansha Islands and Huangyan Island, and sends boats to "sit on the beach" in Ren'ai Reef, Nansha Islands to actually control Huangyan Island. By 200 1, the Philippine marine corps and special operations brigade will replace the naval construction forces in the Nansha Islands, and build more radar stations, airports and other facilities on the occupied islands and reefs to ensure that reinforcements can be deployed to the scheduled islands and reefs within two hours.

Vietnam has strengthened its control over the Nansha Islands, maintained an uninterrupted military presence, frequently rounded up China's operating vessels and drove away China's scientific research vessels, and tried its best to attract the United States and some ASEAN countries to participate in the investment and development of some waters in the Nansha Islands, forming a United front that hindered China's activities in the Nansha Islands. In late March 2007, Vietnamese military and political departments sent several high-level delegations to the relevant islands and reefs in Nansha Islands for condolences and inspections. The scale and duration of personnel have exceeded those of previous years. Since then, the Vietnamese navy has stopped the survey ship "Struggle" -4, which is operating normally in China, in the waters west of Xisha Islands and south of Beibu Gulf. 165438+1October 7th, although Taiping Island has been exercised by Taiwan Province Province of China for a long time, Viet Nam protested the construction of an airport in Taiwan Province Province of China.