Will El Nino affect the weather in winter?

Under normal circumstances, the monsoon air flow in the tropical Pacific moves from America to Asia, keeping the surface of the Pacific Ocean warm and bringing tropical rainfall around Indonesia. However, this pattern is disturbed every 2-7 years, and the wind direction and ocean current are reversed. The heat flow in the surface of the Pacific Ocean turns eastward to America, and then takes away tropical rainfall, resulting in the so-called "El Niñ o phenomenon".

This phenomenon is essentially driven by ocean dynamics, and the corresponding atmospheric change is determined by sea surface temperature (in turn, atmospheric change will strengthen the distribution pattern of ocean temperature), and the distribution of sea surface temperature is determined by ocean dynamics, so the El Niñ o phenomenon represented by the above simplified model is predictable in nature.

The whole process of El Nino is divided into occurrence period, development period, maintenance period and attenuation period, which generally lasts for about one year, and the change of atmosphere lags behind the change of seawater temperature.

El Nino phenomenon generally refers to the climate anomaly caused by the rise of surface seawater temperature in the eastern Pacific near the equator.

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