Interpretation of the development potential of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration

Interpretation of the development potential of the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration

In February 2017, the "Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration Development Plan" was officially released. The main content is "One Bay" - Beibu Gulf, "Beibu Gulf" "Two axes" - the development axis of Nanqin and North Defense and the urban development axis of Zhanmaoyang, "one core" - the core of Nanning City, and "two poles" - the two growth poles of Haikou and Zhanjiang, to jointly build urban agglomerations. So what is the development potential of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration? Let’s find out together! Interpretation of the development potential of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration 1

01

From a population perspective, the whole country is now In the process of urbanization, the most fundamental process of urbanization is population urbanization. Population urbanization includes two methods. The first is urban expansion that brings surrounding rural land and population into cities, and the other is rural population moving to cities for employment. converted into urban population. In comparison, the second way is better.

Looking at the urbanization process of the six cities in the Beibu Gulf, there are two methods, but obviously, the most important method is the first method, because there are no large industries in these cities to attract skilled workers. and highly qualified personnel. At present, basically all cities still use a "hard expansion" method, that is, to expand the scale of the city, continuously acquire land around the city, and develop the real estate industry to expand the scale of the city, rather than expanding according to the urbanized population. This kind of urbanization is very easy to generate "bubbles". In fact, apart from the cities in the Beibu Gulf, one or two cities in Guangxi have more serious urbanization bubbles, and the bubbles have begun to burst.

In the process of urbanization, urban planning and management must also follow up. At present, the level of urban planning, urban construction and urban management in several cities in the Beibu Gulf is still at the level of the last century. Even Nanning, the largest city, still has deficiencies in many places. For example, Nanning still has few flat and intact roads. The main roads also reflect the serious shortcomings of Nanning City in the urbanization process. Several other cities are even weaker than Nanning in terms of planning, urban construction and management levels. From the appearance, the urban image of the three coastal cities in Guangxi is not as good as that of the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and a county in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region.

02

Of course, this situation has certain historical reasons, and more importantly, it is the driving force of economic development-industry. From the current situation of various cities in the Beibu Gulf It seems that its industrial foundation is too weak.

The industrial status of Beibu Gulf, especially the manufacturing base, is very weak. The main industries are largely based on real estate and infrastructure industries. The real estate industry and infrastructure industry have a certain role in promoting the economy in the short term, but to a large extent it is an internal circular economy with many bubbles and cannot achieve sustainable development. Due to well-known historical reasons, the cities in the Beibu Gulf do not have large-scale advanced manufacturing industries. They only have some branch enterprises or bases set up here by large state-owned monopoly companies. Most of them are the most primitive industrial types.

At present, due to the lack of industrial support, except for Nanning, the cities in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are unable to form a certain urban scale and structure. In 2015, the GDP of the three coastal cities in the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi ranked among the 14 cities in Guangxi. Qinzhou ranked 7th (94.4 billion), Beihai ranked 8th (89.2 billion), and Fangchenggang ranked 11th (62.1 billion). The combined GDP of the three coastal cities was Under the GDP of Liuzhou City, this economic level is also at the lower-middle level in Guangxi.

It has been nearly ten years since the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone was implemented in 2007. During these ten years, the lessons learned from the construction of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are greater than the experience, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, foreign investment Entry is quite limited, and state-owned monopoly companies are basically the main ones; second, urban planning, construction and management are backward; third, the administrative capabilities of government staff are relatively low, and there is a lack of high-quality and high-tech talents in the entire region; fourth, a large number of The land in the development zone is idle; fifth, it is difficult for a large number of new urbanized people to find employment; sixth, ores are mined indiscriminately in the name of economic development in many coastal areas; seventh, pyramid schemes are very active in the name of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone development.

In the ten years since the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has been developed, the most dynamic industry is real estate. However, judging from the current situation, if there is no industry to absorb employees, the rigid demand for real estate will decrease, and the real estate bubble will become more and more serious. If the real estate bubble collapses, the real estate bubble may collapse. In fact, the bubble has already appeared, and "ghost towns" have begun to appear in some communities. We must be vigilant about this situation.

03

If there is a general lack of industrial support in urban agglomerations, and if the city scale and urban planning and management level are generally low, it can be driven by a core city to form a "one belt and many" The process of urban agglomeration construction. From the "planning" and reality point of view, this core city is of course Nanning.

However, can Nanning City be able to assume the responsibility of the "core city" of this urban agglomeration?

For a long time after liberation, Guangxi had two industrial centers, namely Liuzhou and Nanning and Liuzhou mainly focus on heavy industry, while Nanning mainly focuses on light industry (it must be noted that many people have always believed that Liuzhou is the industrial center of Guangxi, which is actually wrong. Compared with Liuzhou, Nanning has many large state-owned enterprises). After the reform and opening up, due to the shortcomings of state-owned enterprises, many large state-owned enterprises were eliminated in the wave of market economy. After the industrial reshuffle and enterprise reorganization in Liuzhou in the 1990s, although a large number of enterprises closed down, there were also cases in the short term. Serious problems, but after entering the 21st century, heavy industries based on steel, heavy machinery and automobiles have gradually formed and have certain strength.

In contrast, enterprises in Nanning have basically disappeared in the market competition, such as Nanning Cannery (the largest fruit cannery in the country), Nanning Cotton Spinning Factory (the largest in South China), Nanning Bus Factory, Nanning Pharmaceutical factory, Nanning chemical factory, etc. Many companies eventually went bankrupt in Nanning, and few large local companies emerged after that. Nanning had to pin its hopes on attracting foreign investment. It once shouted the slogan of "headquarters economy," but in the past ten years, it has not seen many. The headquarters of large enterprises are stationed in Nanning. Generally speaking, only some highly labor-intensive processing industries have settled in, and the current economic effects are not obvious. Therefore, Nanning's lack of industries, especially manufacturing and high-tech industries, must be related to the industrial environment.

Although Nanning’s urban scale continues to expand, according to Nanning’s current development speed, in the next ten to fifteen years, Nanning’s urban scale will be difficult to reach the current scale of Chengdu, and it does not yet have an urban agglomeration. conditions in core cities.

On the other hand, due to the lack of industry in the city, the commercial deficit is large. Due to its political status, the main high-income people in Guangxi outside Nanning are concentrated in Nanning, bringing a large amount of consumer capital and raising the overall price. The high consumer prices in Nanning have caused Nanning's commercial consumption level to move closer to first-tier cities, which is very inappropriate.

To add, some people like to point out that Nanning’s “primacy” is lagging behind, saying that Guangxi’s investment in Nanning’s economy and city is still not high enough and that its “primacy” is lagging behind. It must be noted that many people misunderstand the meaning of "primacy". In fact, "primacy" is the population ratio between the provincial capital city and the second largest city in the province. In all coastal provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hebei and Liaoning, the provincial capital's city primacy is lower than that of Nanning, indicating that Nanning's population has seriously expanded; secondly, from the perspective of the ratio of urban construction investment and urban GDP, Nanning It's actually quite high.

In short, judging from the current development scale, management and planning level and industrial foundation of several cities in Guangxi Beibu Gulf, Guangxi Beibu Gulf region has not yet reached the strength and foundation to build a large urban agglomeration.

04

There is another important content in the "Plan", namely the Guangdong and Hainan parts. In the "Plan", the Guangdong part includes the three cities of Zhanjiang, Maoming, and Yangjiang, and Hainan includes Haikou, Danzhou City, Dongfang City, Chengmai County, Lingao County, and Changjiang County, which is the western coastal area of ​​Hainan Island.

The "Planning" is compiled by Guangxi. It can be seen that Guangxi is the center of the whole text, while Guangdong and Hainan feel like "free rides". Guangdong is originally a major economic province, but since Zhanjiang, Maoming, and Yangjiang are not in the core economic development area of ​​Guangdong, its economy has always been relatively backward. However, now that the development of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone is close to saturation, Guangdong has begun to develop the economic resources of the Leizhou Peninsula. Zhanjiang and other three cities have begun to develop rapidly.

Although the "plan" is to build urban agglomerations and economic zones across three provinces, in terms of government attention and response, Zhanjiang, Maoming, and Yangjiang are not as active as Guangxi.

Is there competition in economic construction between provinces? The answer is yes. Although the goal of economic development is mutual development, there will always be competition. The two provinces of Guangdong and Guangxi are geographically adjacent and share the same culture, but their economic values ​​differ by nearly 5 times and their trade differs by 30 times. To some extent, this is also the reason for competition.

In this "planning", it is estimated that Zhanjiang will find it difficult to accept the status of "central city" rather than "core city" given by the Beibu Gulf planning. There are several main reasons. First, Zhanjiang is a coastal city with large ports and coastal industrial bases, but Nanning does not; second, Zhanjiang has a good economic foundation. In 2016, the GDP of Zhanjiang city exceeded the combined GDP of the three coastal cities in Guangxi; third, Zhanjiang has a good economic foundation. It is supported by Guangdong's strong economic, technical and intellectual backing; fourth, Zhanjiang has a long history of foreign trade (the "Pearl of the Orient" by the French) and is well-known. Under such circumstances, Zhanjiang probably has little interest in becoming a "subsidiary" to Nanning, and "planning" is not a guideline for action and cannot limit the development methods of each city. Therefore, from the perspective of competition and administrative management, as well as from the results of Guangdong-Guangxi cooperation during the construction of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, Guangdong cities such as Zhanjiang, Maoming, and Yangjiang are obviously "free rides" on this "plan". It is optional and will not be developed according to its goals.

From a geographical point of view, in fact, Zhanjiang, Yangjiang and Maoming City in Guangdong are not in the Beibu Gulf area, and even Haikou is not in the Beibu Gulf area. There are also certain difficulties in geographical and economic integration collaboration.

The Hainan part of the "plan" is also likely to put some pressure on the construction of the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. Because the west coast of Hainan Island included in the "plan" has a greater advantage than the coastal cities of Guangxi in terms of economic zone construction, because in terms of processing international resources, the ports of Danzhou and Dongfang City in Hainan are closer to the international waters. Its seaport is more open. Judging from the current economic development results of Danzhou Binhai New Area, its efficiency is even higher than that of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. At present, its main weakness is that it has no direct connection with the mainland. If the Qiongzhou Strait Cross-Sea Bridge can be built to directly connect Hainan to the mainland, the integration process and level of Hainan and Zhanjiang will be better than the urban integration process of Guangxi Beibu Gulf, that is, Hainan will form a city with Zhanjiang, Maoming and Yangjiang. Group and Economic Zone, Guangxi Beibu Gulf is excluded.

There are certain difficulties in realizing the planned cross-provincial Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration.

05

So, are the once "China-ASEAN Economic Zone" and "Beibu Gulf Economic Zone" just floating clouds? In the past 10 years, the economic development of the Beibu Gulf has encountered What's the problem?

James McGill Buchanan, the 1986 Nobel Prize winner in economics, created the public choice theory. The theory is generally very complex, but in the end it is a very The obvious conclusion is that government officials and government behavioral capabilities will ultimately determine economic development.

This really pokes a sore spot in Guangxi’s economic and social development. Guangxi is rich in resources and has a superior geographical location. Why it has not been able to develop is something that the country often worries about.

What is lacking most in Guangxi’s economic development? Talent. In fact, Guangxi has no shortage of talents. Guangxi exports a large number of highly intelligent talents to prestigious universities outside the province every year. When the state allocated work from the 1980s to the early 1990s, it also accepted a large number of talents. From the mid-1990s to 2005, The past ten years have been the most serious brain drain in Guangxi. After the 21st century, Guangxi has adopted national policies and Guangxi's implementation of preferential policies to attract a large number of selected students to enter the government. The goal is to try to improve the quality of government personnel at all levels in Guangxi. However, judging from the current results, there is still a certain distance from the target. First, there is a shortage of personnel, especially in county-level government departments, where high-quality talents are still lacking; second, there is no mechanism to utilize talents, and many talents cannot play their role; finally, talents are assimilated and weakened by the original official environment.

06

Economic development is often based on points, and this "point" is often a brand new economic zone. Everyone knows the experience of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. It is an economic point that forms a line with Guangzhou City, eventually forming the Pearl River Delta international-level city cluster.

Why can’t we learn from Shenzhen’s development experience?

The only problem in Guangxi's economic development is that the economic policy is unstable, development has no focus, and the situation is serious. Including the implementation process of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, there is no focus, which is one of the reasons for the weak development of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.

Therefore, can Guangxi consider establishing a new economic development point similar to a special economic zone in the coastal area of ​​Guangxi? This area should not be affected by historical factors. Through the construction of new economic points, firstly, the development model serves as a demonstration and reference for the development of other places in Guangxi; secondly, it drives the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and urban agglomeration; thirdly, it serves as a window for Guangxi’s industry to the outside world; fourthly, it cultivates high-quality government staff. Of course, there are many more functions, too many to list here one by one.

Generally speaking, in order to realize the overall economic and social development of Guangxi in the future, the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration development plan is a good opportunity, and Guangxi should fully seize this major opportunity. Interpretation of the Development Potential of the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration Part 2

The urban agglomeration is the highest structural organizational form in the mature stage of urban development. It is a huge, geographically concentrated agglomeration of several cities centered on large cities. Multi-core, multi-level urban clusters are a combination of metropolitan areas. Urban agglomerations have the function of gathering and diffusing the flow of various production factors. They have become the most dynamic and potential areas in the economic development pattern today and in the future, and are the growth pole of the productivity layout. The Guangxi Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration includes the six cities of Nanning, Beihai, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Yulin and Chongzuo.

In addition, in 2014, the Development and Reform Commission of the Autonomous Region has officially issued the "Regional Integrated Development Plan for Nanning, Beihai, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Yulin, Chongzuo, and Baise City." The "Plan" calls for building regional modern trade and logistics bases, advanced manufacturing bases, characteristic agricultural bases and information exchange centers in seven cities with the North and South Qinfeng as the core and radiating to drive Yu Chongbai, and build the seven cities into nationally important The Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration is a new strategic fulcrum for the opening up and development of southwest and central-south my country and a new highland for international regional economic cooperation facing ASEAN.

In other words, Nanning, Beihai, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Yulin, Chongzuo, and Baise will soon be connected into a closely related city network. They will be the areas with the greatest potential for future economic development in Guangxi.

As a key national development area, with the construction of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the six cities of Nanning, Beihai, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Yulin, and Chongzuo have become new economic growth poles in Guangxi and even the country. On May 3, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document on its official website stating that the planning of urban agglomerations such as the Beibu Gulf has been included in the annual work schedule, and the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration will be basically completed by 2020.

It can be seen that Fangchenggang, as one of the important cities in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, will surely rise vigorously in this opportunity. Fangchenggang's infrastructure construction, industrial development layout, market construction, as well as urban-rural coordination and urban-rural construction, environmental protection and ecological construction, social development and social security system, etc., will all receive fresh blood through this urban agglomeration construction, and gradually realize the same city. Integrated and taking off, Fangchenggang will surely enter a new era of modern cities.

First of all, it occupies an excellent geographical location.

It is located in the core of Fangchenggang City and close to the logistics port. The location advantage is very obvious. It can be said to be a "fengshui treasure land". After the construction of the Beibu Gulf Economic Cluster, the modern trade logistics base and transportation network will be increasingly improved, and quality life will be within reach.

Secondly, enjoy the fruits of industrial development

It is adjacent to Qisha Industrial Zone, a 100-billion-yuan industrial park in Fangcheng Port, and Qisha Industrial Zone relies on the construction of the Beibu Gulf Economic Cluster to achieve industrial development. The layout will be further improved and perfected. As a key investment attraction project in Fangchengang City, with the continuous upgrading of urban industry and urban infrastructure, industry drives the real estate market, and real estate appreciation is inevitable.

Third, urban and rural development brings together tens of millions of tourists

The construction and development of the Beibu Gulf Economic Group will drive more people to gather in Fangchenggang, a coastal tourist city, and as the largest community in Fangchenggang , with the unique advantages of leisure vacation and livability, it must be the first choice for tourists.

Fourth, commercial development has been upgraded again

As an important gateway for Guangxi to build the “Belt and Road Initiative”, Fangcheng Port will usher in historic development with the construction of the Beibu Gulf Economic Cluster. opportunity.

Large commercial communities will also enjoy opportunities for commercial development, with shops, hotels, large supermarkets, and the future of urban prosperity is unlimited.

In summary, as a livable coastal city, if the urban construction of Fangchenggang is further improved and improved, then modern urban construction will be imperative. If you choose to invest and live in Fangchenggang, you can enjoy this Bonus, this will be a solid choice with huge room for appreciation. ;