Beijing property market: this type of house can be bought boldly; Continue to lead the future rise.
Q: Hello, Brother Jing, I work in Beijing and have no real estate. I personally settled in Haidian District collective account, and my baby also settled in Haidian collective account with me. In 2025, my baby can go to a middle school in ganjiakou with a collective account. My wife also works in ganjiakou, but her registered permanent residence is in other places. I am eligible to apply for SFSD, and I am considering giving birth to two children in the near future, which is planned to be completed in two years. The existing funds in hand are 150W, and the annual household income is about 80W. There are three houses in the second-tier cities in the south, one with a market value of 320W, one with a market value of 130W and one with a market value of 300W. Currently considering buying a house in Beijing. Please ask Brother Jing for advice on the following questions.
First, whether to wait for the two children to go to school in groups before buying a house, or to buy a house directly in the snowy area in the near future to solve the problem; Second, how will Beijing's housing prices rise in the future, and whether getting on the bus after two children will usher in another wave of rise; Third, whether all the properties in the second-tier cities in the south should be sold to replace those in Beijing, and how to balance the efficiency of school district housing, self-occupation and investment. In view of the above actual situation, there are the following plans for brother Jing to understand his recent buying mentality:
Option 1: Buy a house after having two children in a collective account (you can enter school after you settle down). The time is expected to be in 2024. When the time comes, we will consider buying a house near ganjiakou without the property of a school district (to take care of children's schooling and self-occupation, without the extra premium of a foreign school district). Consider buying a house with a total price of 800-900 and a loan of about 300. I plan to deal with one or two properties in second-tier cities, plus the funds in my hand as a down payment. What does Brother Jing recommend for such a real estate near ganjiakou?
Option 2: After the two children are born into collective households, they are expected to buy in 2024. From the perspective of pure investment, they will buy fast-growing sectors such as Chaoqing, Orson or Wangjing. Second-tier cities will handle two properties, add funds to buy houses with a total price of 800 to 900, or sell all the added funds. Considering the total price 1 200, the loan is about 300; After the purchase, the rent was changed, and the family rented a house in ganjiakou.
Option 3: Buy the school district house in Donghai directly in the near future. After the second child is born, the registered permanent residence is placed directly on the house. A two-bedroom apartment with a total price of 800-900 (rent change or self-occupation) or a three-bedroom apartment with a total price of 1.200 (self-occupation) is slightly inclined to buy a school district in ganjiakou, Haidian. My wife is close to work and my two children are close to school. Other better schemes can also be considered. What do you recommend?
Scheme 4: I am interested in and can purchase the first floor of Tianxia Talents 104 Pingsanju (40-storey) in Shijingshan, with a total price of about 800W, and I will deliver the house on August 24th. However, the baby can't live in Haidian. After the birth of the second child, the household registration can't be settled in Haidian collective households. You can buy another school district house of about 40 square meters near ganjiakou, with a total price of about 400 yuan (the full amount) for two children to go to school. After purchasing the two properties, I plan to rent them all, and rent a bigger house near ganjiakou for the family to live in. The above plan, or there is a better plan, please ask Mr. Jing to point out the maze.
A: A: Hello; Thank you for your trust! 1, since you can go to ganjiakou primary school with collective hukou in 2025; There is absolutely no need to invest in school districts; School district housing is the added value of kidnapping and extortion; Regarding the investment in school district housing, the quality of some high-quality areas is ok, and their own value is scarce, which can be considered.
If the school district changes, the value of this disk will not be transferred instantly, and the safety factor is relatively high; The rise of school districts is considerable, but the decline is also serious. At present, the premium is serious, and the most stable investment method is to avoid the school district. School district housing is a high-risk investment product. With the constant change of policies, the concept of school district housing may be cancelled at any time, which is risky.
Members of the planet generally suggest buying small ones because their children go to school, because the price of real estate is higher than that of a degree; The degree is calculated according to the suite, regardless of the size of the apartment. The house price is calculated in square meters. The value of large and small real estate schools is the same. Big property is equivalent to paying a lot of premium. Once the school district is changed, it may face huge losses. If you are willing to gamble, in the short and medium term, the profit of the school district may be crucial, but risks and opportunities coexist. A more stable way is to invest in pure houses. Although the increase is not exaggerated by the school district, there will be no fluctuation, but it will rise steadily with the value of the region.
We cannot change the existing monetary system. Using all channels and resources to buy high-quality real estate and real estate that can outperform inflation is the most effective way to "grab money", otherwise it can only be robbed again and again; In the long run, the high-quality market in the core area will continue to rise. As long as the money supply continues to increase, there will be no end to price increases;
In view of your situation, you should concentrate resources on the layout of local high-quality real estate. Under what circumstances is it suitable for foreign investment? First, local self-occupation has been completely solved, and your family, parents and in-laws have places to live, which can basically meet the needs of medical care, school and transportation. Second, the local layout has been completed, so you can go to cities at the same level to spread risks. Third, the local house tickets and loan tickets have been used up. Fourth.
3. Pure investment can be made in Chaoqing, Wangjing and Orson, mainly depending on the amount of funds. The advantage of China Shipping Talent is that it is a high-quality dish of the whole Shijingshan, and the apartment type is also very good, basically without any defects. In the future, this dish will be scarce in the whole area, so it will be very good to occupy it by yourself. From the perspective of investment, the whole area of Shijingshan has lacked industrial support since the relocation of the only Shougang, which is very deserted, leading to the lack of industry.
House prices are supported because they are located in the main overflow areas of Haidian and Xicheng; Although Shijingshan is transforming into a high-end industry, high-tech industries will be absorbed by Li Ze because Fengtai has added a Li Ze. If the future industrial transformation fails, the final positioning may be in line with Mentougou. The price of China Shipping is not cheap, but there is a certain premium in the short term. The business circle with the largest transaction volume in Shijingshan is Lu Gu, and the reason for the large transaction volume in Lu Gu is that it is located at the east gate of Shijingshan, close to Haidian, and priority can be given to those who just need to buy houses in Xicheng and Haidian. The whole business circle is relatively mature.
Lu Gu has been intercepting the entire customer base in the west of Shijingshan; The two properties with the largest transaction volume in this business circle, Ocean Landscape and Han Jing Program; At present, the average selling price of marine landscape is 68,000 square meters, the average selling price of Han Jing program is 64,000 square meters, and the average selling price of marine landscape of quality buildings in Lugu business district is 9 1000 square meters. In the future, the world market of China Shipping will mainly come from Haidian and Xicheng. If a group of customers can't accept the price and quality of ocean landscape, they may choose a sub-quality plate at the expense of distance. Therefore, this sector has certain market competitiveness.
Quotation refers to the buying price and selling price. The purchase price is the price that the developer sells to us. The real decisive battle is the second-hand housing market. In other words, if this house is really put on the second-hand market for sale, what is the first selling price and how long is the second trading cycle, which is suitable for long-term investment. After all, the quality of the property is not bad, and it is more likely to stand guard in the short term. It is recommended to read the articles in the essence column carefully. 08# Epic Inflation on the Road, Rights and Strategies of Ordinary People, 8 1# Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment; I wish all the best!
Q: Hello, Mr. Jing, who lives in Haidian Xueyuan Road with his boyfriend sfsd, is going to get married next year. At present, there are two apartments for rent under his parents' name (Zhongguancun Wife University+Qinghe One Residence), with a total market price of about 1 700 W and 200zd in hand. I want to take this interest rate cut to exchange our sfsd for two sets of new quality (preferably three rooms and two halls), which is not required by the school district. The male ticket and I will take out a loan, and each person will pay 1.5w for the monthly payment. At present, we are considering Jingshiyuan/Rongyu/Aojing Hua Ting 1400w three-bedroom apartment+Laizhen Jiayuan/Shihua Longyue/Wangjing/Yizhuang Hexi 750w two-bedroom apartment. The purpose of asset allocation is given priority to, and the location is not importuned (Zhongguancun and Wangjing work). I like Orson's surrounding environment very much.
1. I feel that the 9w+ premium offered by Laizhen and Shihua Longyue is a bit serious. I don't know if it's suitable to start, or do you have any other combinations to recommend?
2. One person can only borrow 300w W W. Is it necessary to buy two sfsd loans separately? I'm worried about the impact on the quality of life. 1400w Three bedrooms are basically above 140 flat. We may have to pay a high down payment for this repayment ability. Can you also consider putting it under your parents' name and buying it in full with two sets of places? thank
Answer: Hello, thank you for your trust! Your bottom warehouse is ok; It is recommended to use two high-quality room tickets to incite the maximum leverage to buy high-quality plates, and the increase depends on the choice; How much profit depends on your debt; The markets of Qinghe Wangjing and Shangdi are not prominent in this round, but in each round, the regional purchasing power is relatively concentrated. The normal market is about 20 in half a year. If the market is favorable, it may be above 40, and then it may be adjusted back to 10% during the cooling-off period, and the next round of market will continue to climb.
Everyone thinks that these prices are exaggerated. In fact, they have little to do with price. The main reason is that there is a sudden increase in money in the market, and these purchasing power are concentrated in these areas. These prices are scarce in areas where purchasing power is concentrated, leading to a round of increase. We just chose the right funds and took advantage of the city's economic growth and industry dividends. Investing in real estate is as simple as that. Get money, stay away from those areas that rely on speculation, insist on holding high-quality plates in high-quality lots, and give investment to time, not opportunities, and wait for printing money and releasing water.
From the perspective of profit maximization, you can choose to buy a set of leading plates with one of the room tickets,1700+200; Down payment+leverage is actually not that much, choose a three-bedroom apartment; Another kind of room ticket in the second-hand disk to choose high-quality two-bedroom or sub-new three-bedroom;
The value of Orson plate lies in the scarcity of ecological resources and belongs to stability. The increase may not be as prominent as the industrial zone, but there will be no correction. If you like the environment here, there is nothing wrong with buying it here. The value of Yizhuang is supported by industry, but it belongs to the outer ring after all. If you don't work here, there is no need to squeeze into this area.
One big and one small, Wangjing, Orson, Qinghe can do it. If I had to choose, I would choose Wangjing, Orson, or Wangjing and Chaoqing. Qinghe is not impossible to choose. You have to buy Haidian without hard indicators, so the value of Wangjing is greater than that of Xi's Erqi. Beijing is the only combination of production and residence, with international trade and convenient transportation in the south. Compared with teenagers, Wangjing was well nourished in the early stage.
It is suggested that we carefully read the articles "The Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment" and "08# epic inflation on the road, the rights and strategies of ordinary people" in the column of Planet Essence. I wish all the best!
Q: Hello! I also have a pre-marital garage (studio, currently valued at about 4.2 million, with a rent of 6800-7000/ month) in Chaoqing Runfeng Shui. /kloc-in 0/2, my husband and I bought R&F Shangyueju three rooms in Mazhuqiao (the original plan was to live by ourselves), but later the work address changed, Mazhuqiao was too far away, so we need to consider settling down and going to school when we have children.
On 202 1 Shangyueju was replaced by Dongcheng Yuanjia Apartment (with an opening price of more than 4 million yuan and a rent of 6,500-7,000 yuan/month) as the baby's residence, and the occupation pit in Dongcheng School District (I don't know whether the baby will take the highway route or the private route in the future, so I only got on the cheaper bus in Dongcheng), and her family rented a three-bedroom (self-occupied) apartment in Fanghua Yicheng.
Now that the baby is older, I decided to stay in Beijing. I plan to improve my room change at this time. At present, there are more than 4 million cash available at home. The plan is to sell the house in Feng Run and buy a house with a total price of 1 100. There are several schemes: 1, buy a three-bedroom apartment in Fanghua Yicheng, and the living environment will not change for more than 10 years, but in the future, citizens need to get on and off at a certain distance (about half an hour's drive from Dongcheng on average), and there is no particularly good private choice nearby;
2. It is convenient for the baby to go to school in the future under the transformation of the old and shabby small three-bedroom (about 80 square meters) near Cao Fang, but it is a little difficult for the individual psychology to accept the problem of parking in the old community.
3. The new house in Cuigezhuang plot of Wangjing (Xiaofeng Yue Ying and Heguang Yuefu) can be bought with four bedrooms, and the apartment type is about 1 10. The design and layout of the new house are comfortable, but the delivery will be a few years later (2024 and 2025), and the supporting facilities of Cuigezhuang plot are not perfect;
4. When the Monet Garden in Houshayu is stacked on top of each other, this choice is entirely to improve the quality of life. There is a high probability of going to private enterprises, or a very low probability of going to public enterprises, that is, squeezing into the city on weekdays and returning to Shunyi on weekends. May I ask Mr. Xia Jing how to choose these schemes? Do you have any other schemes to recommend? Thank you!
Answer: Hello, thank you for your trust! 1, scheme 1 is more efficient; The current property market is a structural rising logic; The first to rise is always some leading plates and hot spots; Beijing's market is band-type; The bull market is divided into two situations; One is short wave and the other is long wave. Short wave lasts until May Day after the Spring Festival every year. The long wave lasts from September of the previous year to May Day of the following year. This is also a real bull market; The biggest wave of increase is around the Spring Festival. Generally, each wave increases by 30%-40%; The leading plate can reach 50%; Non-leading plates can rise by 30%; Secondary board10-20; The unpopular plate and the outer suburbs are sideways or the increase is not obvious;
If you choose the old rest near Cao Fang, you will lose the increase in house prices. The current law is to meet the upward period of housing prices; First of all, the first wave is that the quality of school districts and hot spots is sub-new, the second wave is school districts+mature spillover areas (also sub-new in quality), and the third wave is school districts+hot spot core areas+spillover areas+just-needed disks. The fourth wave will turn to the unpopular plate, which is also the second new quality, which is the law of housing price rotation when the big market appears; However, there are fewer and fewer general markets at present. If the budget is enough, the quality of the core area will be as new as possible and the market will not be lost. At this stage, the investment focus of buying a house is the ability to choose financing, followed by financial technology. Whether you can maximize the benefits with limited funds is the principle of investment at this stage;
2. Let's talk about the Cuigezhuang plot again. On the surface, this plot is very good, close to Wangjing, but the supporting facilities are very poor; Or there is no match, all matches depend on Wangjing; There are two local museums, and the traffic is relatively poor at present. It's a detour from Cuigezhuang to Wangjing. The new houses in this sector need to be prepared for short-term no market; In the future, we can only wait for the improvement of supporting facilities, and there is uncertainty.
You can compare the Jiuxianqiao area on the south side; It is also an area without a business circle. Too many villages in the city are difficult to transform, and large-scale art areas occupy a lot of land resources, which leads to unreasonable commercial layout in the whole region and difficult to optimize the transformation. It is difficult to attract people from other regions to buy houses here; Although relying on Wangjing's industrial advantages, house prices have underperformed the market all the year round, and there are also urban diseases similar to Jiuxianqiao in Cuigezhuang area. Secondly, the financial attributes of new houses are relatively weak. The advantage is that there are no transaction costs, such as agency fees and taxes. The disadvantage is that the location is not ideal, the supporting facilities are immature, and there are many uncertainties in some planning and landing.
Houshayu Monet Garden belongs to consumer goods, and its investment attribute is very weak. Generally, this type of house has a very strong family background, holding high-quality lots, and buying villas is purely a holiday residence. In fact, the living experience of this kind of house is not particularly good, with high maintenance cost and low practicability.
3. Let's talk about Chaoqing first; Why the Chaoqing plate has been on the rise, and the whole Beijing husband's house products occupy half of the country, resulting in the scarcity of new products. No matter who gets on the bus or who replaces it, a large amount of demand has pushed up the new price of high-quality areas again and again. This is why all the price increases are new, and a region has enough purchasing power, but most of the residential products in the lot are old houses or old houses, and only a small number of products with new or improved quality will become the sought-after properties in this region, thus pushing up house prices again and again;
There are faults in the north of the East Third Ring Road, and there are high-quality regional Dawang Road and Shuangjing in the south. There are no high-quality business districts from Guo Mao North to Sanyuanqiao, all of which are old houses, with Chaoyang Park mansion in the east and Chaoqing in the east. The supporting facilities are mature and the quality is new. In addition, only relying on the natural advantages of Guo Mao, Chaoqing can develop into the best quality area in need of improvement, which is the natural law of this region. Unless the fault defects in northern Guo Mao are solved, Chaoqing will always be the region with the strongest purchasing power. From the principle of investment efficiency, scheme 1 is better, scheme 3 has a long redemption period, and scheme 2 and scheme 4 have weak investment attributes;
It is recommended to carefully read the article "The Core Logic and Principles of Beijing Real Estate Investment" by Planet Top, "In the next five years, put all your eggs in one basket, short miscellaneous vegetables, and only stay dominant". I wish all the best, and you can ask me any questions.
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