Analyze the reasons for the unusually cold climate in my country in the winter of 2011?

Under the background that global warming has been accepted by more and more people in recent years, the extremely cold weather since the beginning of winter in 2011 has puzzled many people.

Experts have basically agreed on the cause of this extreme cold weather. World Meteorological Organization spokesman Nallis said in Geneva on the 4th that the severe cold weather currently sweeping Europe is caused by the Siberian high-pressure air mass. He said that the Siberian high-pressure air mass prevented warm air from moving westward, causing temperatures to plummet in Europe. In the past few days, cold air from the north and warm and moist air from the Mediterranean have converged over southeastern Europe, bringing a lot of snow to the region.

Lu Longhua, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, also gave an explanation from a technical perspective: the Arctic "oscillation" index showed negative values ​​in 2011, that is, the air pressure in the Arctic is higher than that in areas outside the Arctic, and the cold in the Arctic is The air thus spreads beyond the Arctic, causing severe cold weather across Europe and East Asia.

However, meteorological experts are very different about the future direction of climate change. There are two completely different judgments about the earth "continuing to warm" and "entering the Little Ice Age". In this regard, the authoritative meteorological experts interviewed by the reporter also expressed their opinions.

Many meteorological experts such as Wang Qiyi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, believe that the current extremely cold weather in Eurasia does not mean that the global warming trend has changed. On the contrary, global warming is the underlying cause of this extreme cold weather. Wang Qiyi said that due to global warming, especially the significant warming of the Arctic, the melting of Arctic sea ice has caused an increase in the Arctic height field, which has led to the recent spread of Arctic cold air to mid- and high-latitude areas.

Wang Qiyi said that when examining the time scale of global warming, we should not just look at a few years, but at least look at the average change over 30 years. "From 1971 to 2000, we have seen that global warming is certain, with an increase of about 0.19 degrees Celsius every decade. However, the rising trajectory of temperature will not be a straight line, but will rise in waves, with occurrences in between. Occasionally, certain areas get colder for a short period of time." Experts believe that the extremely cold weather in Europe and Asia this time is an isolated and accidental phenomenon and cannot be used as a weather vane to judge long-term climate cooling.

However, due to this extremely cold weather, many members of the public still have doubts about the statement of global warming from an intuitive perspective, while some meteorological experts have proven their belief in "global change" from a professional perspective. Warmth" is not accepted.

Wang Bin, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, studied the natural changes in the global average surface temperature at two scales: 10 to 30 years and 50 to 100 years. He found that although on the surface, In recent years, global temperatures have shown an upward trend, but according to the natural law of temperature change, the trend is downward. When these two trends act at the same time, the cooling trend is slightly higher than the warming trend. "From my personal research, the temperature will go downwards in the next 50 to 100 years."

But Wang Bin does not agree with the statement that "the Little Ice Age is coming", "Our The results show that the earth's cooling rate will be very small in the next 30 years, and it is impossible to enter the Little Ice Age," he said.