About the economic trend in the next two years?
The report is optimistic about the prospect of maintaining high growth in the stock market this year. The report points out that the increasingly serious structural problems in China's economic growth are accumulating, including the imbalance of expenditure structure, income structure, industrial structure, regional structure and input-output structure. Whether these problems can be solved safely will directly affect whether the medium and long-term high-speed growth trend can be maintained. It is predicted that after 2008, the economic effects of the Olympic Games will be weakened, the global economy will move towards moderate adjustment, and China's economy will also decline steadily.
According to the report, the risks faced by global economic growth will increase in the next two years, including: oil price shock, financial market crisis, weak dollar, global warming, worsening environmental pollution, major epidemics, widening gap between the rich and the poor, etc. As the engine of the world economy, with the crisis caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble gradually amplifying the transmission effect, the possibility of economic recession will increase in the next 1-2 years, and it will be difficult for countries around the world to be immune. However, the report believes that the global economy will not fall into the Great Depression, mainly because emerging markets are playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing global economic and financial growth, and the global economic growth momentum has not completely disappeared.
In the next two years, China's economy will slow down in step with the world.
China Bank Institute of International Finance Chen Weidong Wang Jiaqiang
At present, global economy and finance are facing a series of complex changes, and economic, political and social factors are intertwined. In the next 2-3 years, the global economy will face the possibility of periodic adjustment, which will have a great impact on China's economic development, and China's sustained high economic growth has also accumulated some structural problems. After 2008, under the influence of internal and external factors, China's economic growth will slow down synchronously with the world, but its structure will be more reasonable and its development will be more stable.
1. The global economy will enter a cyclical adjustment in the next two years.
Since the trough of 200 1, the global economy has been growing strongly for six years. In 2007, the growth cycles of major developed countries began to mismatch, which objectively improved the flexibility of the global economy. The steady growth of Europe and Japan in the first quarter effectively eased the impact of the economic slowdown in the United States; In the third quarter, the European and Japanese economies began to slow down, while the American economy grew strongly. Emerging economies, including China, are decoupled from a single developed economy, and the speed, quality and efficiency are improving, and the financial system is more stable. With the recent decline of American real estate market, global financial market fluctuation and the rise of trade protectionism, will the global economy continue to grow at a high speed? This problem has attracted more and more attention. We believe that under the major risk challenges such as economic imbalance, excess liquidity, geopolitical conflicts, soaring oil prices, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, developed economies may not reproduce the good fortune of 2007 in the next two years, thus entering the stage of periodic adjustment, but they will still not fall into the Great Depression. The main reasons include that emerging markets are playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing global economic and financial growth, and the global economic growth momentum has not completely disappeared.
First of all, from the perspective of economic development cycle, global economic growth will usher in an inflection point. The so-called economic cycle refers to a phenomenon that economic expansion and economic contraction cycle alternately. Economists have put forward dozens of theoretical explanations for the causes of economic cycles, such as pure money cycle and over-investment cycle, and divided economic cycles of different lengths and types. Among them, Schumpeter's "innovation" economic cycle is typical, which is more in line with the reality of global economic growth. That is, technological invention and institutional innovation make economic growth fluctuate in a long period of about 50 years. Each long period includes six medium periods of about 9- 10 years, and each medium period includes three short periods of about 3-4 years on average. According to this method, since the second half of18th century, the global economy has experienced a long economic cycle brought by five innovative factors: industrial revolution, steam power revolution, electric power revolution, Ford mass production revolution and information technology revolution.
The latest long cycle began in the mid-1980s. The information technology revolution characterized by digitalization and networking greatly shortened the cycle of product design, development and use, and promoted the rapid development of economic and financial globalization. The global mode of production represented by "multinational companies" has greatly improved the global output level and economic growth rate. From the perspective of time span, the long cycle of the current global economy began with 1983 and continued to expand for nearly 25 years. If it evolves in a long-term law, around 2009 may be the beginning of this round of long-term global economy. The long cycle of this round consists of several mid-cycles of 9- 10 years, and the latest mid-cycle starting from 200 1 may last until around 2009.
In a word, the data observed by human society for hundreds of years show that the economic cycle exists objectively, and it is inevitable to fall into adjustment after long-term strong expansion. With the deepening of globalization, the synchronization of global economic cycle fluctuations is increasing. Therefore, it is entirely possible to adjust the global economy moderately in the next two years only from the general operating law of the economic cycle.
Second, this round of global economic growth cycle has its objective reasons. The mid-cycle of the global economy began with a short recession of 200 1, followed by an accelerated growth in 2002-2004, a slight decline in 2005 (a short period of ***4 years), and accelerated again in 2006. According to the forecast data of IMF, World Bank and other international organizations for the next two years, although it has slowed down in 2008, it will continue to expand strongly (short period ***3 years).
This round of strong expansion cycle of the global economy presents important characteristics such as universal global growth, global economic imbalance, low inflation and high growth, and serious asset bubble, which is very different from the past. The reasons mainly include:
Global low interest rate policy. 200 1 In response to the economic recession, the United States once lowered its benchmark interest rate to a historical low of 1%; Japan has implemented the zero interest rate policy for more than six years; Interest rates in other regions are also at historically low levels. Low interest rates have stimulated high global liquidity, and the ratio of M2 to GDP of major economies in the world has generally increased by 2-3 times. Abundant liquidity has greatly promoted the expansion of financial markets and the growth of investment and consumption.
Promote economic and financial globalization. With the integration of China, Russian, Indian and other large emerging economies into the process of global integration, the globalization of world economy and finance has reached an unprecedented level. If the degree of globalization is measured by the ratio of international trade volume, total foreign assets, total foreign liabilities and gross domestic product, this ratio has increased by about three times since the 1970s. At the same time, the optimal allocation of resources and manpower in the world has reduced the threat of global inflation and increased the limit of global production capacity.
The information technology revolution continues to play a role. The long-term technical driving force of this round is the information technology revolution. The global information network has promoted the process of economic globalization and greatly changed people's lifestyles. The cycle of technological innovation has been shortened continuously, which has promoted the upgrading of consumer product structure.
Relatively stable political and social environment. The current economic cycle, which started at 200 1, has generally maintained a relatively stable economic development environment and provided indispensable conditions for the strong growth of the global economy.
Third, the current global economic growth faces many major risks and problems.
At present, the global economy is facing many risk challenges, and four factors affect the prospects of economic growth.
(1) Economic factors
Although the disorderly adjustment of global imbalances and the upgrading of trade protection have a great impact, it is unlikely to happen at present. At present, the biggest threat is the recession of the global real estate market and the impact of oil prices, so it is very important to prepare for the impact of the two.
First, let's look at the decline of the American real estate market. Observing the characteristics of American economic growth cycle after 9. 1 1 incident, the real estate market is a key. Its basic development is as follows: ① The bursting of the Internet bubble was triggered by the "9. 1 1" fuse, the American economy declined →→→→→ the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, optimistic expectations rebounded, excess liquidity → the explosion of housing mortgage loans → the real estate bubble blew up → the positive wealth effect drove the strong growth of consumption →→→→→→ the company's profits soared, which promoted the expansion of the stock market. The demand for housing loans declined, and house prices began to fall-→⑦ The investment in housing construction declined, and the subprime mortgage problem surfaced-→⑧ The stock market and derivatives market were in turmoil-→⑨ The credit crunch and wealth effect impacted, and investment and consumption were affected-→⑩ The American economy slowed down, and then it spread to the whole world.
In 2007, the U.S. economy will keep slowing down, but the possibility of falling into recession in the next 1-2 years will increase, because the crisis caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble has just begun, and its transmission effect will reach its maximum in 1-2 years. As the engine of the world economy, the depressed housing market in the United States led to the economic downturn. In the case of a slowdown in the American economy, other regions may be able to decouple from the United States, but if the American economy falls into recession, it will be difficult for countries around the world to be immune.
Second, look at the impact of oil prices. Oil is the most important energy source in the world. In the context of the economic slowdown in the United States, oil prices have climbed to historical highs. There are four main reasons for the continuous rise of oil prices: First, the energy demand has certain rigidity. Second, oil exporting countries have formed alliances for their own interests, and may raise prices by limiting production at any time, so the prospect of oil supply is pessimistic. Third, geopolitical conflicts and financial factors are pushing up oil prices at any time. Fourth, it is driven by financial factors. Global excess liquidity and derivative financial instruments have participated in the speculation of oil prices; In addition, the depreciation trend of the US dollar continues, and the oil price denominated in US dollars will continue to rise.
In 2006-2007, the rise in oil prices did not seem to have a substantial impact on the global economy. However, oil prices may remain at a high level in the future, and high oil prices remain a major risk to global economic growth. In fact, one source of global inflationary pressure is the transmission effect of high oil prices, and its basic ways are: high oil prices → alternative energy development → rising corn prices → rising food and meat prices → rising living costs → rising labor costs → rising labor and raw material costs push up the prices of other commodities. The impact of high oil prices on global economic growth: first, rising oil prices and declining consumer demand will bring trouble to oil-related industries such as automobiles and chemicals; Second, the inflationary pressure brought by high oil prices makes central banks unable to relax monetary policy even when the economy is in trouble, and economic growth is shrouded in the shadow of "stagflation"; Third, high oil prices may trigger more intense energy conflicts, and some big countries will launch war machines at any time, thus threatening the basic environment for economic growth.
(2) Financial factors
At present, the global excess liquidity may turn, the price bubbles of financial assets such as stocks and derivatives are expanding, and the dollar is facing a depreciation crisis. These factors are closely related to each other, and the change of one factor may trigger the linkage reaction of other factors. We believe that the financial crisis caused by the deep adjustment of the financial market bubble and the crisis of the international monetary system caused by the sharp depreciation of the US dollar may be the most prominent risks.
The stock market bubble is the result of global excess liquidity. However, the sudden global liquidity crunch may happen at any time, and the most crucial thing is market confidence. It is entirely possible that market confidence will reverse and the global stock market bubble will burst. The global financial derivatives have developed rapidly, but the transparency and supervision are seriously lagging behind, which has aroused great concern in some countries. The risk amplification effect of financial derivatives brings greater management pressure to traders and regulators.
The continuous decline of the US dollar exchange rate since 2000 has aroused widespread concern. If the fundamentals of the US economy continue to decline or even decline in the next 1-2 years, the pace of the dollar crisis will approach. The decline of the dollar will intensify, and funds will flow out of the dollar assets; However, when the dollar rebounds sharply again, the impact on the global financial market will probably be far greater than the subprime mortgage storm.
(3) Political and social factors
Political and social factors that may have a serious impact on the global economy include: world war, geopolitical conflict, civil war, corruption in transition countries, sudden change of a few regimes, international terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and social unrest caused by the gap between the rich and the poor. Among these factors, the most influential are war and social unrest.
At present, some geopolitical conflicts that the international community is most worried about include: First, considering the strategy of competing for oil resources, the United States may launch a war against Iran in the name of preventing the expansion of nuclear weapons, thus pushing up international oil prices and hitting the world hard. The second is the strategic conflict between the United States and Russia. Some experts even believe that there will be a war between the United States and Russia in 20 15 years. In short, with the global competition for oil and resources in the future, global geopolitical conflicts will be a sword hanging over the global economy.
Social unrest caused by the gap between the rich and the poor will also lead to the stagnation of a country's economic growth and even lead to military conflicts between countries. The long-term turmoil in Africa is a typical example. The vast number of developing countries have a large population and low per capita income. During the period of high economic growth, the gap between the rich and the poor has been temporarily alleviated. However, if the global economy falls into recession and the social economy stagnates, the risk of social unrest will greatly increase.
(4) Climate and environmental factors
Climatic and environmental factors mainly refer to some unexpected factors that people can't control in the short term. At present, climate change is the most global, and natural disasters and infectious diseases caused by climate change and environmental pollution are also increasing, posing challenges to future economic growth.
Take climate change as an example. In the past century, global warming has had and will continue to have a great impact on natural ecosystems and human socio-economic systems, and has become one of the most severe challenges facing human sustainable development. It is estimated that in the face of frequent natural disasters and endless laws and regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions, most industries in the world must consider investing huge extra costs for this. Among these industries, agriculture and tourism are the hardest hit areas in the face of bad weather changes; Banks and insurance industry will also suffer serious losses; The tax increase policy is bound to further increase the energy price and increase the production cost of enterprises. Future climate change will have a greater impact on the global economy.
Fourth, the global economy may undergo moderate adjustment in the next two years.
Faced with the threat of the above-mentioned risk factors, there are different views on when the current economic expansion cycle will end, or when it may fall into recession in the next five years. Optimists believe that global economic integration and information technology revolution have prolonged this round of economic expansion cycle, and with the maturity of macro-management policies, the global economy has considerable flexibility; Pessimists believe that this economic cycle, stimulated by monetary expansion, will fall into recession with the global excess liquidity, the bursting of asset bubbles and the adjustment of global imbalances.
To grasp the future trend of the global economy, we should focus on three aspects: first, what will happen to the various driving factors that promote this round of economic growth, and whether their driving role will be limited; Second, among the risk factors facing the global economy, which may occur and how big the specific impact is; Third, countries will not actually sit idly by and ignore the crisis, and possible countermeasures will play a great role.
We believe that the unfavorable factors of global economic growth in the next two years include: first, the possibility of economic cyclical adjustment increases, and the fuse of recession will probably be the subprime mortgage crisis. Second, the risks faced by economic growth have increased.
At the same time, the global economy will also face some favorable factors in the next two years, including: first, global policy coordination can reduce the loss of the crisis to some extent. With various organizations and research institutions constantly issuing warnings, the governments of major countries are actually soberly adjusting their policies. Although these actions cannot fundamentally eliminate risks, they can reduce the possibility of risks to a certain extent and minimize the loss after the occurrence of risk factors. Second, the driving force of global economic growth has not disappeared, including: the situation of global excess liquidity has not been completely reversed, globalization has further developed through regional economic cooperation, the driving force of information technology revolution is still obvious, and the political and social environment is relatively stable. Third, the global emerging market economies are growing in scale, with high growth rate, improving growth quality and steadily improving financial system, which play a more important role in promoting global economic growth and financial stability and become the backbone of avoiding global recession.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the global economy can still maintain a high growth rate in 2007. In 2008-20 10, the global economy may fall into moderate adjustment, but it will not go into full-scale recession or great depression. In this context, global integration may be affected by economic slowdown and financial market fluctuations; The growth rate of international investment and international trade may slow down.
Third, we should attach great importance to it.
Problems in China's Economic Growth
At present, the most important thing is that with the increasing integration of China into the global economy, the increasingly serious structural problems in China's economic growth are accumulating. Whether these problems can be solved steadily will directly affect whether the medium and long-term high-speed growth trend can be maintained.
1. Expenditure structure: high investment, high export and low consumption.
Under the background of limited domestic demand, the output generated by high investment in China can only be largely digested through exports, which makes the consumption rate in China drop to the lowest level in history, and the domestic consumption demand has been depressed for a long time. Compared with other countries, China's current investment rate is obviously high, and its consumption rate is obviously low. The risk of this expenditure structure is that once the external demand drops sharply, it will inevitably lead to a large number of overcapacity, and the profits of enterprises will fall until they face the risk of bankruptcy, which will lead to increased unemployment and economic recession.
Since 2006, the income level of residents has been greatly improved, which has led to the warming of automobile and housing consumption and the improvement of consumption expenditure structure; The high investment momentum has been restrained to some extent, but the rebound pressure still exists; At the same time, export growth is still very fast, and the excessive growth of trade surplus has become an important reason to promote excess liquidity at present. If the production cost in China rises gradually and the international strategy of multinational companies changes, China's economy, especially industrial production, will become more fragile.
2. Income structure: the income growth of the government and enterprises is relatively high, and the income of residents is relatively low.
Under the background of China's rapid economic growth, the wage growth level of Chinese workers is relatively fast. According to statistics, the wage increase in China in the past 15 years was the fastest in the world. Nevertheless, since the current economic cycle, China's tax revenue and corporate profits have increased substantially, and the income growth of residents is still far lower than that of the government and enterprises.
Under this income distribution structure, high investment led by government and enterprise investment has sufficient financial support. However, under the new system, China's medical care and social security have not yet been established. Affected by the wealth effect and future income expectations, residents' consumption expenditure may further decline.
3. Industrial structure: the proportion of the secondary industry is rising, and the tertiary industry is underdeveloped.
The proportion of China's primary industry in GDP continues to decline, which is the inevitable result of the development of industrialization. The tertiary industry has not been fully developed for a long time, which is far from the global average. In 2006, the proportion of tertiary industry in China was only 39.4%. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's commodity trade, the proportion of the secondary industry has continued to rise, reaching nearly 50% in 2006. On the whole, China's industrial structure is still unreasonable, and the trend of heavy industrialization is obvious, which shows that China is still in a low position in the global industrial chain. Excessive industrialization will adversely affect the development of knowledge economy and technological innovation, because knowledge economy depends more on the activity and development of the tertiary industry.
In fact, due to the differences in resource endowments and international division of labor, the structure of global economic growth is bound to be different, but China is one of the few countries with a low proportion of tertiary industry in the world. In terms of industrial structure, developed countries generally focus on the tertiary industry, and the low value-added links of manufacturing industries are largely transferred to developing countries. Among the developing China countries, East Asian countries have undertaken a large number of manufacturing divisions, while the Middle East, Africa and Russia have made great progress in primary product mining and other industries mainly relying on their own resource conditions. At present, the added value of the tertiary industry in developed countries accounts for more than 70% of the gross national product, and the average level in developing countries is about 50%.
4. Regional structure: the eastern region is developing rapidly, while the central and western regions are backward; The gap between urban and rural development has widened.
The development of the eastern region first promoted the economic development of China, but maintaining this pattern for a long time also brought about the imbalance of regional development. From 1978 to 2006, the proportion of China's eastern GDP increased from 5 1.2% to 60%, the central GDP decreased from 29.6% to 23%, and the western GDP decreased from 19.2% to 17%. Strategies such as the large-scale development of the western region failed to effectively improve the economic development of the western region, and the strategy of the rise of the central region started late, which also led to the lowest GDP ratio in the central region.
At the same time, the gap between urban and rural development in China has widened. Since the mid-1980s, the income gap between urban and rural residents in China has been expanding continuously, and by 2006, the gap has reached 3.3 to 1. According to the estimation of Asian Development Bank, China's Gini coefficient has risen from 0.407 in 1993 to 0.47 in 2004, which is close to the level of Latin America and exceeds the international warning line. The risks of unbalanced development of regional structure and unbalanced distribution of residents' income can not be ignored, because it not only affects the growth of domestic consumption demand, but also may cause social instability and pose a threat to economic development.
5. Input-output structure: high consumption and low value-added output coexist.
China has the advantage of low labor cost and lacks technological innovation. China has become a global processing and manufacturing power, resulting in excessive consumption of resources and energy. Moreover, in order to maintain the long-term low-cost advantage of products and cut costs, production enterprises have insufficient investment in environmental governance, labor welfare, safety protection, product quality testing, intellectual property research and development, which is not conducive to long-term development.
The per capita possession of energy resources in China is far below the world average, and the per capita remaining recoverable reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are only 58.6%, 7.69% and 7.05% of the world average respectively. However, China's energy consumption is far higher than the world level. In 2005, GDP accounted for only 5.0% of the world, and the consumption of crude oil, raw coal, iron ore, steel and cement accounted for 7.4%, 465, 438+0%, 30%, 27% and 40% of the world respectively. The energy consumption per unit GDP is about 7.20 times that of Japan, 3.52 times that of the United States, 1. 18 times that of India and 3.28 times that of the whole world.
Due to the low value-added chain in the global industrial division of labor, most of the production profits are actually taken away by international capital and patented technology, leaving local residents with low labor remuneration, low consumption and slow improvement of living environment, resulting in serious social welfare losses. Under the growth mode of high input-low added value output-low consumption, economic development will be more and more restricted by resources and environment, thus restricting long-term sustainable development.
Second, China's economic cycle has changed from frequent fluctuations to steady growth.
Since 1949, China's economic cycle has been characterized by periodic changes. Before 1978, it fluctuated frequently and fluctuated greatly; After 1978, economic growth experienced a very long period; From 65438 to 0997, economic growth entered a sustained and stable period of high growth. Compared with before the reform and opening-up, China's economic cycle presents brand-new characteristics, including the fluctuation path moving up, the band lengthening and the amplitude decreasing. Especially after 1997, it experienced a long period of accelerated economic growth, accompanied by a low level of inflation, which is rare in the economic history of New China and even compared with other countries at the same time.
The reasons behind China's unique economic cycle and economic growth model include:
First, China has many important conditions, such as a large working population, abundant natural resources, active opening to the outside world, political stability and the rise of the middle class, all of which are the basis for achieving rapid and stable economic growth.
Second, high savings, low labor costs, active introduction of foreign capital, opening to the outside world and China's accession to the WTO have effectively guaranteed China's high-investment capital source and high-output consumer market.
Third, China's market economy system, which is dominated by the government and public ownership economy, ensures that the macro-control means are more mature and effective while exerting efficiency, and can timely iron out the signs of overheating or supercooling in the economy.
Fourthly, China has implemented successful reform measures. Gradual and sustained economic reform measures have greatly released the long-suppressed growth potential, and the institutional dividend has been fully tapped; Active and steady financial reform and opening-up measures have effectively resolved the impact of external financial risks.
Fifth, China pursues a foreign policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, peaceful coexistence, building a harmonious world and keeping a low profile, thus creating an international environment conducive to China's economic development.
In a word, the internal buffer mechanism or self-regulation mechanism supporting China's ultra-long-term economic growth is strengthening, and the mechanism for resisting external shocks is constantly improving, thus effectively overcoming the impact of external shocks such as major floods and epidemics, the Asian financial crisis, and the 9. 1 1 incident, and making remarkable achievements.
After sustained and long-term high-speed growth, what is the prospect of China's economic cycle? Under three circumstances, China's economy faces downside cyclical risks in the short term, and even the risk of a hard landing: First, runaway inflation leads to a sudden braking of macro policies; Second, the global economic collapse led to a serious decline in China's exports; Third, the production capacity continues to grow at a rate higher than the total demand, and then there is deflation caused by overcapacity. Therefore, if China's macroeconomic policy can minimize the possibility of the above three situations, it can extend this round of economic growth cycle. Based on the basic conditions of China's economic growth and the current stage of development, it will maintain a high-speed growth in the next two years, but the growth rate will tend to decline.
First of all, global economic collapse is unlikely, and moderate adjustment is not enough to lead to a serious decline in China's exports. At the same time, inflation is a short-term structural problem to a certain extent, and China already has huge production capacity, which is an important condition for controlling inflation. As long as the current monetary policy effectively regulates inflation expectations, inflation is not the biggest threat.
Second, China's domestic demand continues to expand, and its economic growth model tends to be reasonable. In the next few years, China's domestic consumption will enter a period of high growth, and the aging population will not hinder China's economic growth in the next 10 year, unless the unexpected recession of the US economy leads to a decline in external demand. At the same time, urbanization continues to develop, and the future economic growth will not only come from the contribution of the middle class, but also from the increase of investment and consumption in the process of urbanization.
Third, promote reform, education and technology. At present, China is undergoing many economic and social reforms. As long as the reform can continue, China's economy will continue to grow. In addition, the factors supporting economic growth are education and science and technology, and the government has invested a lot of energy in education research and development. The long-term growth potential of an economy depends on its own technological innovation ability. At present, China's technological innovation potential is far from being tapped, and China's advantage of relying on technology introduction is far from being fully exerted. China is fully capable of tapping its potential and maintaining rapid growth in the next few years or longer.
Four. Outlook for the next two years:
China's economic slowdown keeps pace with the world.
In short, the global economy is facing the risk of cyclical adjustment, which will have a certain * * * shock effect with China's economy. At the same time, behind the sustained high economic growth of China in the past 30 years, a series of structural problems have accumulated, which are extremely unfavorable to the sustainable economic and social development of China in the long run. At present, various contradictions and pressures in China's economic and social fields are also the synthesis of the above problems. These structural problems are formed after long-term accumulation under the evolution of China's special national conditions and international division of labor system, which challenges the future development of China's economy.
The current government is fully aware of the seriousness of structural problems, actively and steadily deepening reform and opening up, and has made many important plans and decisions. For example, expanding domestic demand, strengthening investment and development in the central and western regions, collecting various resource taxes, reducing export tax rebates, and vigorously promoting energy conservation and consumption reduction; Increase investment in education, social security, scientific research and other undertakings, accelerate the construction and improvement of the capital market, and guide the allocation of funds and resources; Accelerate the coordination of various macro policies and move towards a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy. This is the new situation and changes that are taking place in China's economy and society at present, and it is also a favorable factor for the long-term development of social economy. As long as China can steadily push forward the reform and opening up, maintain a stable domestic social situation and create a good international environment, China's economy can maintain a relatively high growth in the future.
Recently, the international economy is changing, which has not had a significant impact on China's economy. After 2007, the stock market continued to improve, and the wealth effect promoted the sustained growth of consumption. The 2008 Olympic Games has brought greater pulling effect, so the growth rate will continue to be high in 2007 and 2008. Moreover, with the comprehensive influence of the Olympic Games in politics, economy and society, China's economic growth rate will decrease steadily, its quality and structure will be improved, and it will move towards a more balanced growth mode, laying the foundation for sound and rapid economic development in the next 20 years. After 2008, the economic effects of the Olympic Games weakened, the global economy moved towards moderate adjustment, and China's economy also declined steadily.
The advantages of Dongguan, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are
1, unique geographical advantage, close to Hong Kong.
2. The traffic environment is very good, and the sea, land and air arteries.
3. Perfect industrial structure
4, a large number of low-cost labor.
5. The private economy has developed very rapidly.
6. The characteristic industries have high level and great advantages.
You know, the advantage of Shenzhen lies in the support of national policies and the gathering of talents.
The obvious advantages of Chengdu are the western development and the past third-line economy (national key enterprises such as national defense and heavy industry). Chengdu lacks obvious economic development advantages!