How about 202 10908 stock market analysis and 202 10909 stock market forecast?
First, the market depth view.
Reminder at noon, August CPI and money supply data will be released today! Among them, CPI directly feeds back the domestic consumption situation, while the pork market that directly affects CPI is still in the early warning of decline. The upcoming August CPI data may not be too bright.
The key point is that, although there are 50,000 tons of central frozen pork reserves in China recently, and pork may have a short-term rebound demand in the coming two-season season, considering the current consumption situation, the long-term trend of pork is still not optimistic.
Importantly, China's economy is at the end of its recovery. For example, last year, China's trade surplus was 3.7 trillion, up 27.4% year-on-year. In the first eight months of this year, the trade surplus was 2.34 trillion, up 17.8% year-on-year. If linear speculation, this year's trade surplus data may not be as good as last year.
But I think this is not the embodiment of economic downturn, but the inevitable decline after the supply and demand situation is basically effectively balanced. In this context, if the CPI data is not good, it can be directly seen that the consumer side is already in a period of significant weakness.
In addition, since last month, the upper level has repeatedly sold stocks to balance the supply and demand of the resource market, but recently, resource stocks have been rising steadily, and many targets have hit new highs one after another. If it is not affected by large-scale inflation, upstream enterprises are the first to respond to inflation, which is impossible, because it will directly increase operating costs. This top-down cost superposition will further affect consumption.
But I have great confidence in domestic macro-control! This situation is only temporary. So it is speculated that there will be many related measures to improve it in the second half of the year. Among them, the optimization of liquidity structure that I have repeatedly mentioned since the beginning of the year may appear again.
But then again, it will take a few months to improve anyway. From the point of view of the market itself, we only focus on the short-term trend. If the consumption trend is really fed back, it will at least affect the market sentiment in the short term!
In addition, the money supply data was influenced by yesterday's statement by Yang Ma, which reduced the market's loose expectations on the monetary level. Combined with the expectation of Yang Ma's return next week, there should be risk aversion in the market in the near future. At this time, it is also the reason for being bearish again at noon.
Although the result did not drop much, the Shanghai Composite Index only fell by 0.04%, and the Growth Enterprise Market only fell by 0.97%. But talking is better than nothing, just because it has fallen at this stage and will continue to rise! Therefore, I don't think A shares have been adjusted back in place, and it is impossible to be bullish tomorrow. Just look at the adjustment.
Second, give investors two more reminders.
1, not suitable for heavy positions.
It didn't fall much today, and the Shanghai Composite Index is still in a strong area above the 5th line. Next, there is the possibility of sideways shocks. However, combined with the previous point of view, I strongly remind you here that it is obviously not important! Because it seems that the market is relatively strong, but the bigger the funds, the worse. Usually it will be quietly shipped in the process of seemingly strong. Once the short-term trend turns completely, people are basically finished.
For example, this morning's stagflation of heavy volume shows that there is a large amount of money to ship, and there is an obvious sell-off in the afternoon. However, due to the strong support of the main force for big finance and agriculture, and the landing of the boots in the game circle, the NFT concept of the encryption circle has been driven by the meta-universe, so today's market will not be too ugly.
Think small, so do short-term trends! Next, no matter how the market goes, don't be heavy! At least wait for the Shanghai Composite Index to converge to the 5th day before making a decision, otherwise it will be too late once the market is stretched.
2. Northbound funds
Yesterday, Northbound Capital has been continuously subscribed for 12 days, reaching the longest continuous subscription record in the year! Therefore, after-hours remind everyone that after this phenomenon occurs, most A shares will fall first and then rise!
The last consecutive 12 day was 65438+ 10/2 1 day, and the high point of that day was 3636.24. After two days of sideways oscillation, the short-term trend continued to fluctuate for four days, with a drop of more than 5 points! After five days of sideways shocks, it gradually rose to a high level before the year!
So I also remind everyone that it depends on whether continuous purchase will be interrupted today! Although it was in the state of purchase at noon, the Shanghai Stock Connect, which was recently surrounded by large funds, has already shown the state of shipment.
As of the close, northbound funds shipped161800 million, and the continuous buying status was terminated! And judging this situation in advance is also one of the reasons why I remind everyone to be cautious in the near future! Because according to the previous data, northbound funds have a more accurate grasp of the top and bottom trend of A shares, and ordinary investors will at least not make big mistakes when holding their thighs.
Yes, the high probability will still rise in the general direction, and it is not even ruled out that it will rise to 4000 points during the year, but no matter who puts forward this view, it is probabilistic speculation! As long as it is probabilistic, it is uncertain. Who knows what will happen tomorrow? Although I often say that people should be optimistic, only optimism can lead us to continue to grow and see more scenery.
However, we should not be blindly optimistic because there is hope, regard imaginary hope as reality, and infer the process by the results. Isn't that silly? Just like a person with great talent for sports. Everyone predicts that he will become an Olympic champion in the future. As a result, he took praise as a fact and stopped trying. If you can still be an Olympic champion in this way, it is nonsense.
The key point is that when there is a callback demand in the short-term trend, the best way for ordinary investors is to keep only the bottom position and not have any other redundant positions. In this way, we can make ourselves invincible to the greatest extent, because the way to deal with the market is the most important, that is, what to do if it goes up and what to do if it falls. Not just bullish and bearish.
Just like those people in the workplace who only know how to ask all kinds of questions, but always can't give pragmatic solutions, they are doomed to failure! Because most bosses can't say it on the surface, but they have completely missed such people in their hearts, because such people can't be independent at all. So is the stock market. If you only know the ups and downs and don't know what to do, then you can only be a green "pupil" after all.