The weather forecast is too inaccurate

Reason 1: She is still very young

Although the ancients already had a lot of experience in predicting weather by observing phenomena and looking for patterns, weather forecasting based on modern science is only more than 100 years old. She developed it in a simple manual workshop through simple timed observations to obtain the air pressure field, high and low pressure, and cold and warm fronts, and then made simple linear calculations. The simplification of weather changes represented by numerical forecasting The solution and computation of physical processes were only a few decades away. People have not fully grasped the internal mechanisms and laws of the occurrence and evolution of many weather phenomena. Meteorological science is still the sun at seven or eight o'clock in the morning, and it is an extremely young subject. Young people are always going to make mistakes.

Reason 2: There are countless butterfly wings

Lorenz, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, used a vivid metaphor to express his discovery: a small Butterflies flapping their wings over Brazil could cause a storm in Texas a month later. This is the famous "butterfly effect" in chaos theory, and it is also one of the earliest chaotic phenomena discovered. In front of our eyes, there seem to be "countless butterfly wings" fluttering. Regardless of the greenhouse effect caused by urban heat islands and industrial emissions, the complex topography of this planet has a decisive impact on weather changes, and vegetation, water bodies, etc. are all undergoing subtle changes, and all of this is simulating A detailed description of the operation is not possible.

Of course, we will not accommodate the inaccurate weather forecast just because we have "countless butterfly wings", just like students will not lament that the test questions are too difficult because they cannot get full marks. People who often use "chaos" to comfort themselves do not yet have the professional psychological quality to predict the weather.

Reason 3: Our eyes have blind spots

To predict the weather, we must first observe the weather. Theoretically speaking, we must be aware of every detail, and we must not miss any detail. Humans themselves do not have clairvoyance or ears. Our eyes have blind spots.

Since the advent of weather satellites, the blind spots of our eyes have been reduced and our field of vision has become wider. No matter how cunning a typhoon is, it will never fool the keen eyes of satellites. The spiral cloud shape and eye of a typhoon are clearly visible, so we can confidently issue those typhoon warnings. But no gold is pure, no one is perfect, and the same is true for weather satellites. Geostationary meteorological satellites watch weather changes intently, but their distance from the ground is 36,000 kilometers, which is relatively far away and their resolution capabilities are relatively limited. Polar-orbiting meteorological satellites have an altitude of more than 800 kilometers and are closer to the earth, but they cannot keep their eyes peeled. When observing a specific area, the cloud image is spliced ​​together. When observing a specific area, it is equivalent to the satellite having the problem of "blinking", and some weather happens in the "blink of an eye". In addition, if there is cloud cover, it will be difficult for us to observe and measure the area and intensity of vegetation, water bodies, sand and dust, etc. The clouds will conceal many secrets.

We do not have a pair of eyes that can see everything. Errors will occur when analyzing and predicting. This is inevitable.

Reason 4: The sun rises in the east and rains in the west

People often use the phrase "the sun rises in the east and rains in the west" to describe local differences in weather. In areas with complex terrain, or in seasons where strong convective weather such as storms and hailstorms are more common, the weather is often very different in a small area.

For a large mountain, the difference in temperature and precipitation between the windward and leeward slopes is very large, so the appearance of the vegetation is also very different. There is only a mountain separated, but there are two types of climate. The ancients said: When we first realize that we are separated by a mountain, the climate is very different.

Our country has a vast territory and is affected by both mid- and high-latitude continental weather systems and low-latitude oceanic weather systems. There are a variety of weather disasters, which are the most diverse and most severe. One of the most violent countries. We use one or two minutes to summarize the national weather. We can only "start from the overall situation" and describe large-scale characteristics. This will definitely delete many local specific weather phenomena and miss many weather plots. It cannot express such complexity. weather changes.

Reason 5: Misdiagnosis of difficult diseases

There are many types of diseases, and the difficulty of diagnosing and treating each disease varies. No matter how skilled the doctor is, he still misdiagnoses sometimes, and often encounters difficult and complicated diseases when taking the weather's pulse.

I clearly remember an example: a typhoon had just formed and rushed towards the southeast coast with great momentum, and we issued a warning. However, the typhoon strangely stopped moving forward and rested on the spot. But just when people breathed a sigh of relief, it shot back and aimed again at the southeastern coast. So we once again issued a typhoon warning vigilantly. However, when the warning sounded, the typhoon swaggered towards the Pacific Ocean. In the end, the typhoon gave people a false alarm. Afterwards, several colleagues concluded: This typhoon seems to have come specifically to tease us.

Even if a certain conventional weather process is not predicted to occur (called in jargon: false report), or is not predicted to occur (called in jargon: missed report), situations often occur. For a long time, in order to reduce negative social impact, some people in the industry have a "rather than leaking nothing" mentality.

Not to discuss the forecasting mentality in the industry, I personally feel that it is precisely because many extremely difficult forecasts are reported incorrectly, especially omissions, that people (including leaders) lack fair evaluation of errors, and many colleagues who are engaged in forecasting often have a The feeling of walking on thin ice, like a frightened bird. One of my leaders has a favorite saying: Ten thousand years from now, people will still be talking about the accuracy of weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are always inaccurate. I hope his words will give viewers a shot in the arm ten thousand years from now. ——The problem of weather forecasting will persist for a long time. It is indeed a difficult thing to figure out God's temper.

Reason 6: Your feelings are deceiving yourself

In the spring of 2004, an intern said to me: What will you do in the summer? This sentence made me confused. . He explained: Everyone said that in the high temperature season, it is clearly over 40 degrees, but you always report 36 or 37 degrees. You are afraid of causing panic, so you dare not or do not want to report high temperatures.

After hearing this analysis, I really feel that I have been wronged!

In the summer of 2003, there was a long-term and large-area high temperature weather in the south, and water and electricity shortages were very prominent. , Greater Shanghai has also adopted restrictive measures for night lighting. In Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang, the temperature in many areas is like a sports competition. New highs are set repeatedly, and the major "furnaces" complement each other. As a result, many viewers reported that the weather forecast deliberately suppressed the temperature results and concealed them, even raising it to the political level of "depriving the people of their right to know."

But in fact, for the high temperature weather in the summer of 2003, the meteorological department made very wonderful and conclusive forecasts. The Central Meteorological Observatory alone issued an unprecedented 31 high temperature forecasts and warnings, and for the temperature The forecast error is generally around one degree or even lower. However, why is there such a strong contrast between the scientific excitement and the public impression?

We trace back to the source that the difference between temperature and people’s physical sensations (sensory temperature) is the primary cause of complaints and doubts. .

The temperature we are talking about refers to the temperature in the blind box, which is on the lawn, 1.5 meters above the ground, ventilated, and not exposed to direct sunlight. But our body temperature is affected by many factors. The same temperature, there is a big difference between the sun and the shade; there is a big difference between wind and no wind; there is a big difference between humid and dry, and the difference in feeling is generally more than 5 degrees. Moreover, under the scorching sunshine, the ground temperature is much higher than the air temperature. When the temperature is 35 degrees, the temperature of the surface land may be 50 degrees, and the temperature of the cement or asphalt road may be 70 to 80 degrees, so walking When you are on the road, you feel that the temperature is much higher than 35 degrees, so you have doubts about the weather forecast.

In fact, in the history of weather forecasting, there has never been a situation where the temperature forecast results were subjectively and deliberately lowered in midsummer. If there is such a thing, it is completely despicable behavior that harms professional ethics, and it is intolerable for us!

Reason 7: Lack of inaccurate summary

I have read a lot of articles about There are articles and summaries about how wonderful the forecast is and how successful the analysis is, but it is rare to see analysis and comments on individual cases of forecast failure. It seems that some people are unwilling to touch the scars and do not sincerely discuss the professional atmosphere of failure. Once there is an important error in the forecast, the atmosphere will become very solemn and people will not dare to mention it for fear of hurting someone's feelings.

At the end of Beijing TV's weather forecast, there is a screen with the "Weather Forecast Satisfaction Rate for a Certain Day in a Month", where viewers rate the daily weather forecast results. I will read this message carefully every time. It is an important channel to understand the audience's attitude towards the quality of the forecast. The satisfaction rate is often very high, over 90% or even 100%. But there are also times when the satisfaction rate is very low. For example, "light rain" was forecast in Beijing on June 14 and 15, 2004, but God was unwilling to cooperate. On the 14th, there was a strong wind of level 6 and a blowing sand weather. 15 Although the sky was gloomy and the clouds were thick, it didn't rain. I passed by a swimming pool that day. The staff there recognized me and said jokingly: "The weather forecast has been so inaccurate these two days, how dare you walk on the street?" "As a result, the satisfaction rate for the weather forecast on June 14 was only 43%. Of course, everyone in the know knows that forecasting in those days is indeed very difficult. On June 16th, it seemed that God was finally moved by the persistent forecast. It rained for a day, but the highest temperature predicted was 24 degrees. In fact, the temperature in the afternoon was only 17 degrees. People wearing thin clothes were shivering from the cold. , there are many complaints, but on June 15th, the satisfaction rate for the forecast for the 16th was 81.8%. It seems that although the temperature forecast was outrageous, the rainfall was finally forecast, and everyone is still very tolerant.