Fact-finding of "Power Cut": Things didn't happen suddenly, and it never happened only in China.
Cao Enhui, a researcher of 21st century business herald New Energy Research Group
, and Qi Yu, a special researcher of Peng Qiang
stopped water and electricity without notice, and the elevators in the corridor stopped suddenly ... A series of sudden changes woke up the residents in Northeast China from the "freedom of using electricity" that lasted for almost ten years. The "orderly use of electricity" sweeping across many provinces in China before the winter comes has made people feel the chill in advance.
According to CCTV news, the Propaganda Department of Liaoyang Municipal Committee confirmed that a major safety accident occurred in the city on September 24th. Although this is only an extreme event in this round of power cut, it also reflects that the power supply situation is facing a more severe situation.
after the power cut in some provinces in the first half of this year, the central authorities issued signals in July and August, asking all localities to correct the "sports carbon reduction" and resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high" projects.
however, in late September, "power rationing" still spread everywhere, and some places even extended power rationing to residential electricity consumption. Although the signing meeting of medium-and long-term coal contracts in the fourth quarter of 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in Shanxi Province was held on September 29th, at present, the pressure of electricity consumption in October is still quite high.
behind these phenomena, there are many unanswered questions: how serious is the power cut across the country? Why is it intensified in the off-season of industrial production? What industries have been affected by the power rationing measures this year? Why can't the contradiction between electricity consumption be solved? .....
it is one-sided to simply attribute this round of "power cut" to "double control requirements for energy consumption" or even "limit low-end production capacity". To answer these questions, we should not only analyze the domestic and international energy supply markets, but also go deep into the industrial structure of China after the epidemic.
21st century business herald New Energy Research Group believes that to solve these problems, it is necessary to establish a safer and cleaner energy supply structure, a more market-oriented power trading system and promote a more energy-efficient industrial restructuring.
why did the "power cut" raid
1. The growth rate of power supply was insufficient
From January to August this year, domestic power demand grew rapidly, and the growth rate of domestic power production and coal supply was not as fast as that of demand.
According to the data of the National Energy Administration, from January to August this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 5.47 trillion kWh, up 13.8% year-on-year; Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry reached 3.65 trillion kWh, accounting for 66% of the total electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1%.
according to the data of the national bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, the domestic power generation was 5.39 trillion kwh, up by 11.3% year-on-year, while the growth rate of power production in August has dropped significantly. Among them, in August, thermal power increased by only .3%, hydropower decreased by 4.7%, wind power increased by 7%, and nuclear power increased by 1.2%.
The China Electric Power Enterprise Association released a report in July, pointing out that the supply and demand of electricity in the whole country were balanced in the first half of the year, but the power supply was tight in some parts of the country. In January, due to the cold wave and other weather, power shortages occurred in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and other places. In the second quarter, Mengxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi took measures to respond to demand and orderly use electricity. Among them, the power supply in Guangdong and Yunnan is particularly tight.
At that time, China Electricity Council predicted that the overall supply and demand of electricity in the country would remain balanced in the second half of the year, but the shortage of electricity supply would increase compared with the previous year.
in terms of coal-fired power, which is responsible for the stable supply of electricity, the tight supply and demand in the coal market and the soaring price restrict the supply of coal-fired power.
since the beginning of this year, due to the limited release of domestic coal production capacity and the limited increase of imported coal, the supply of coal has been continuously tight. In the second half of the year, the price of coal has been rising all the way, and the inventory of coal-fired power enterprises is low, which further increases the operating pressure of coal-fired power enterprises.
according to the data of the national bureau of statistics, the domestic raw coal production was 2.6 billion tons from January to August this year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, which was mainly driven by the high growth rate in January and February. Since March this year, the monthly production of domestic raw coal has mostly kept a downward trend year-on-year, with only a slight rebound in May and August.
At present, it is in the off-season of coal consumption in the traditional sense, but the market is extremely hot. At present, the main contract price of thermal coal futures has exceeded 13 yuan/ton, and the actual market price is about 16 yuan/ton, while the price in the same period last year was only 5-6 yuan/ton. The increase is about 3%.
the soaring coal price has pushed the thermal power plant into a loss position rapidly, and the willingness to generate electricity is insufficient. Whether through the long-term association or the initiative of enterprises to reduce prices, an unchangeable fact is that the coal circulating in the market has become less.
since this summer, the peak of electricity consumption caused by high temperature and strong export (from January to August, our total export value increased by 23.7% year-on-year) have stimulated industrial production, which has stimulated the growth of electricity demand.
2. Double control of energy consumption
It is not uncommon to limit electricity and production in many industries. For example, in the steel industry, after the rapid production in the first half of the year, under the pressure of greater output control, many steel industries began to implement the production restriction policy in July. In terms of cement building materials, due to environmental protection, energy consumption and other factors, peak-shifting production has been limited.
however, since the end of August, the national development and reform commission has named several provinces and regions whose energy consumption dual control work failed to meet the standards, and issued an early warning. Since then, areas with tight energy consumption dual control have started to limit electricity and production at the end of the third quarter, trying to sprint to meet the targets.
At present, the main industries involved in energy consumption dual control include chemical industry, steel, nonferrous metals, cement and building materials, coal and electricity, and more than a dozen provinces and regions with large energy consumption.
Figure: The completion of energy consumption control in each province in the first half of the year
According to the calculation of the research department of CICC, the provinces whose energy consumption intensity failed to meet the standard in the first half of the year accounted for about 7% of China's industrial added value, among which the provinces with red warning and yellow warning accounted for about 38% and 32% respectively.
However, "double control of energy consumption" is not the only reason for power cuts in various places. For Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, the increase of electricity consumption, the shortage of coal, the shortage of new energy generation and other factors have led to insufficient local power supply, which has led to a large-scale power cut-off and production suspension in Northeast China.
Figure: Measures for Double Control of Energy Consumption in Provinces
The heating season is about to begin. In the traditional consumption peak season, the coal market as a whole is expected to remain strong without obvious improvement in both supply and demand sides.
Power cut-off effect
From the factory shutdown to the elevator shutdown, the influence of "power cut-off" has penetrated into residents' lives from industrial production. For a time, more than 2 A-share-related listed companies were in a hurry, announcing restricted radio waves and. But what is embarrassing is that this round of power cuts once triggered a "power carnival" in the capital market.
1. The power market fluctuates violently
Due to the shortage of power supply, the electricity consumption of residents in many areas has also been affected after the implementation of power rationing and production restriction by industrial enterprises.
in the areas where the domestic energy saving situation is severe, there is a situation that the electricity consumption of air conditioners is strictly controlled and the lighting electricity consumption is required to be optimized.
in the three northeastern provinces, many places suddenly lost power without notice, and some areas even went to the point where elevators stopped, traffic lights stopped and water was cut off. In addition to the power and production restrictions of industrial enterprises, the closing time of shopping malls in some areas was advanced to 4 pm, the lighting of buildings was all closed, and the brightness of street lamps was lowered at night.
since June this year, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places have adjusted the local peak and valley electricity prices.
on the whole, however, the adjustment of peak and valley electricity prices has reduced the operating costs of power grid enterprises to some extent, and also realized the "peak shaving and valley filling" in the process of partial power use. However, for thermal power generation enterprises, the high cost brought by the high price of natural gas and coal and the adjustment of peak and valley electricity prices are still a drop in the bucket.
in the field of industrial manufacturing, large-scale power and production restrictions continue to affect many industries. Paradoxically, supply and demand are intertwined with prices, forming a strange circle to some extent.
in the photovoltaic industry, the dual control of energy consumption further aggravates the mismatch between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry and the shortage of silicon materials, which contributes to the trend of higher overall prices. Downstream demand has played a supporting role in the current high price of silicon materials, and the promotion of dual control of energy consumption has affected the output of silicon materials to a certain extent, further limiting the supply.
in the cement industry, the price of products has risen sharply in the short term due to the high coal price and the blessing of the policy of limiting production in many places. In the steel industry, since the second half of the year, under the implementation of the production restriction policy, steel prices have remained at a relatively high level; On this basis, the double control of energy consumption in many places further limits the output of steel and enhances the expectation of production reduction.
near the end of the traditional peak season, the consumption of steel market is weak, the social inventory keeps the pace of de-chemical, the overall market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the production reduction policy dominates the market. The limited production of steel enterprises directly weakened the market demand of iron ore, and the price also plummeted.
Since late July, the price of iron ore has been declining continuously. At present, the main domestic iron ore futures price has fallen below 7 yuan/ton, and reached a high of 1,358 yuan/ton in May this year.
2. The "ice and fire" in the capital market
Since the beginning of August, the A-share power sector has continued to climb, reaching a low of 1,17 on July 28th and reaching a maximum of 1,6 on September 28th. During the same period, the coal mining and processing sector also began to climb significantly. On August 3rd, the index was 1,498.48, and it reached the highest level of 2,483.68 on September 16th, and has recently dropped to around 2,1.
dozens of listed companies in various industries have announced the news of stopping production and limiting production. According to the incomplete statistics of 21st century business herald New Energy Research Group, as of September 27th, 23 listed companies have issued relevant announcements about power cut and production suspension. The Mona Lisa (2918.SZ), a ceramic manufacturer in Guangxi, was the first to be affected.
Figure: A list of some listed companies affected by double restrictions
On September 14th, Mona Lisa announced that six production lines of Guimeng Company, a holding subsidiary, with a total capacity of 15, square meters/day of building ceramics were forced to stop production, and the remaining production line (with a capacity of 25, square meters/day of building ceramics) was also in a low-load abnormal operation state and faced with the risk of stopping production; The four production lines that the company originally planned to start in the second half of the year may not be built and put into production as scheduled.
Since then, Dio Home Furnishing (2798.SZ), Chenhua (361.SZ), Sino-Agricultural Union (342.SZ), Youcai Resources (2998.SZ), Limin (2734.SZ) and Runfeng (3135)
With the continuous expansion of the scope of power rationing, as many as 1 listed companies issued a notice on limiting movie noise on September 27th. Among them, the news of the suspension of production of Taoli Bread (63866.SH) even rushed to the hot search.
According to the disclosure, nine wholly-owned subsidiaries of Taoli Bread, which are located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Tianjin and Heilongjiang, have all received the notice from the local government to limit electricity or even stop production.
according to the research report of CICC, in terms of specific industries, the industries that are greatly affected by the policy of dual control of energy consumption include but are not limited to steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and chemical fiber. The main characteristics of these industries are high power consumption and high carbon emission, and the measures taken include direct production suspension, reduction of production capacity (ranging from 2% to 9%), off-peak production, time-limited power consumption, and reduction of electricity preference.
The global "expensive winter"
This round of "power cut" is by no means confined to China. In fact, the world is welcoming an "expensive winter".
in recent years, most major economies are promoting the transformation of energy structure. However, when the work in Europe and the United States has made progress, the pain has followed.
1. The prices of coal and natural gas in Europe and America skyrocketed, and the electricity price soared
According to the data provided by Wind, the international thermal coal price has increased several times in the last year. As of September 24th, the spot prices of thermal coal in ARA Port in Europe, Richard RB in South Africa and NEWC in Australia were US$ 185.68/ton, US$ 161.15/ton and US$ 188.72/ton, respectively, increasing by 249.68%, 172.9% and 215.37% compared with a year ago.
at the same time, natural gas prices in Europe and America are constantly hitting record highs. As of September 24th, the European natural gas futures price has soared from 8 pounds per megawatt hour in May 22 to around 2 pounds, an increase of nearly 25 times. On September 27th, NYMEX1 October natural gas futures in the United States closed up 11.1% to US$ 5.76/million british thermal unit, setting a new high since February 214. ICE UK natural gas futures closed up 8.2% at 19.39P/kcal, hitting an intraday high of 193.23P, approaching the all-time high recorded on September 15th.
with the soaring prices of coal and natural gas, the electricity prices in Europe and America have also entered the fast lane of rising. According to the data of us energy information administration (EIA), as of July only, the electricity prices in Italy, Spain, Germany and France increased by 166%, 167%, 17% and 134% respectively compared with a year ago. In the same period, the electricity consumption of American residents was as high as 13.9 cents/kWh, a record high.
regarding the trend of natural gas prices, Samantha Dart, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said that if the winter in Europe is colder than expected, then Europe may need to compete with Asia for LNG supply. It is predicted that there may be a further increase at the end of this year and early next year, because the winter temperature this year is colder than before.
This in turn will affect the supply and price of oil and gas markets in Asia, including China.
2. The stability of energy structure in Europe and America is challenged
Under the global low-carbon action, thermal power is gradually abandoned in Europe, which is at the forefront of environmental protection. For example, in Spain and Britain, thermal power accounts for only 4% and 2%. This is related to the continuous promotion of energy structure transformation in Europe and America in recent years.
according to the world energy statistics yearbook published by BP, in recent two years, countries such as Europe and America have greatly improved the green degree of their energy structure. For example, in Europe, the overall power structure has formed a pattern that nuclear energy, renewable energy and natural gas power generation account for the top three. In addition, the data of us energy information administration (EIA) also shows that in 22, the proportion of renewable energy development in Europe (including Britain) (