Understand the past and present lives of the three major oils in one article
As for the affairs of the world, if they are united for a long time, they must be divided, and if they are divided for a long time, they must be united. The three main players of fats and oils, beans and brown vegetables are the same. In the past ten years, they have been divided and combined, rising and falling. Their price differences have changed with the times and moved at the right time, performing a melody of discounts and premiums, crazy and dull cadences. .
The story begins on January 9, 2006, when soybean oil was listed on the market despite long-awaited calls. Subsequently, palm oil and vegetable oil came on stage one after another, and the three main players in oil and fat began a love-hate relationship that lasted for ten years.
Attachment 1: Price trend chart of the three major oils of beans, brown vegetables and vegetables
1. Commodity futures accept new troops, soybean oil leads the market first
January 2006 On the 9th, a new member was added to the Dalian market, and the Dalian soybean oil May contract officially debuted at an opening price of 5,300 yuan/ton. From January to March, soybean oil followed a "W"-shaped shock trend. The May contract hit a low of 4,642 in April, which was also the lowest point for soybean oil in ten years.
China's rapeseed production areas are vast, stretching from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the north, to Yunnan in the south, to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the east, and to Qinghai Province in the west. Hubei Province has the largest output. There is a saying, "For Chinese rapeseed, look to Hubei, and for Hubei rapeseed, look to Jingzhou." People in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are accustomed to eating rapeseed oil, and June is the season for rapeseed in this area. Therefore, the large-scale launch of new rapeseed oil has brought some impact to the soybean oil market.
In the era of planned economy, oils and fats were supplied by voucher, with rapeseed oil costing 0.66 yuan per catty and soybean oil costing 0.61 yuan per catty. In other words, rapeseed oil was 100 yuan/ton more expensive than soybean oil at that time. In the era of market economy, after the liberalization of grain and oil prices, a large amount of imported soybean oil flooded into the domestic market, and soybeans were also imported. In addition, the State Council issued a notice to ensure the supply of grain and oil, and to reasonably increase the reserves of grain varieties and finished grains to ensure that they can be supplied at any time. Putting it on the market requires good organization of grain transportation. Railway and transportation departments must strengthen dispatch and give priority to ensuring grain and oil transportation.
China Grain Reserves and other units have auctioned off state reserves of grain and oil six times to stabilize prices, and a large amount of state reserves of crude soybean oil has flowed into the market. Due to high soybean oil prices, soybean crushing is highly profitable and the startup rate is also high. Domestic soybean oil supply has further increased. . The formation of negative news on soybean oil caused soybean oil to adjust to a low level for more than 6 months after its listing. In the second half of 2006, soybean oil spot and futures began to strengthen, especially from September to December, the monthly line continued to close positive, and the main contract was 0605 Finally closing at a high of 6812, this year, soybean oil can be said to be off to a successful start, and success is imminent. At that time, rapeseed oil had not yet been imported, domestic supply was scarce, and prices were high. Rapeseed oil was 300-600 yuan/ton higher than soybean oil.
2. Biodiesel tells a story, soybean oil runs for 15,000 yuan
The ten-year oil and fat market is a remarkable stage, with endless aftertaste, and has the significance of a textbook. In 2007, the domestic soybean oil market experienced an unprecedented "bull market"! Since April, soybean oil has been on an upward trend, with prices rising steadily and in a step-like manner. It is rare to see such a long duration. Every adjustment in the market accumulates energy for the next wave of rise, breaking through the historical high in 2004 in a short period of time, and using this as support, it continues to leap forward. By the end of the year, the spot price of domestic first-grade soybean oil had reached more than 12,000 yuan/ton, a leap of 5,300 yuan/ton, and the price difference from the second-highest level in history widened to about 4,100 yuan/ton.
Despite several national regulations, the price of soybean oil, palm oil, cotton oil and other edible oils has exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. However, the rise in soybean oil prices is still unstoppable. Near the end of the year, soybean oil prices continue to hit new highs. It can be seen that the formation of the soybean oil "bull market" in 2007 did not happen overnight, but had its inevitability and rationality. As a related variety, rapeseed oil has also risen, and the price difference between beans and vegetables has further widened.
What is the reason for this bull market? The origin of the story is still talked about today. In 2006, the international situation was turbulent and people's awareness of the energy crisis intensified, triggering the largest hype on biofuels. The incident involving British soldiers broke out in the Middle East, and tensions between the United States and Iran between the United Kingdom and Iran were once again at war, threatening the international oil supply and production order and pushing international crude oil prices to new highs. International biofuel speculation surged. After that, several international institutions reported insufficient energy supply. The analysis needs to be taken to a new level.
In October, the conflict between Turkey and Iran was about to break out, causing market participants to have great concerns about oil supply and production. As a result, the concept of biodiesel began to become a reason for the rise in oil prices, and it continued. tidy. Domestic and foreign oil futures hit record highs in succession, and continued the surge until the beginning of 2008. On March 4, 2008, crude oil rose to US$102.75, and CBOT soybean oil also had a strong trend, hitting the highest level in 33 years to US$72.69. point. On March 4, 2008, the soybean oil May contract hit a historic high of 14,896 yuan/ton, the main vegetable oil contract in May reached a maximum of 15,812 yuan/ton, and the main palm oil contract in May reached a maximum of 12,992 yuan/ton. At this time, rapeseed oil is 1,368 yuan/ton higher than soybean oil, soybean oil is 1,660 yuan/ton higher than palm oil, and the price difference between soybean and palm oil is widening. The amazing growth of soybean oil at this stage has become the most beautiful myth of oil in the past ten years!
3. The subprime mortgage crisis caused market chaos, the three armed forces plummeted, and the oil market was miserable
After entering 2008, the domestic oil market continued to rise. During the Spring Festival, a heavy snowstorm in the south triggered another round of Due to the crazy speculation, the domestic soybean oil market has soared, reaching record highs continuously, and once wrote the "bull market myth". In the madness, some commentators have already shouted the slogan of 18,000 yuan/ton for soybean oil. There was a very popular legend in the country at that time. In early 2007, a woman named Wan from Hubei entered soybean oil futures for 50,000 yuan. In the blink of an eye, by the beginning of 2008, the woman surnamed Wan had made a profit of 10 million! However, great joy brings sorrow, and good times do not last long. The sharp rise is followed by a sharp fall. Since March 4, domestic soybean oil prices have been declining.
In March, with the convening of the "Two Sessions", the government report listed "preventing structural price increases from evolving into significant inflation" as the primary task of this year's macro-control, and the CPI increase will be controlled at 4.8 About %, it instantly caused sensitive reactions to oils and fats at home and abroad, becoming a "shock bomb" that suppressed the domestic and foreign oil and fat markets. The external market also suffered from the concentrated listing of South American soybeans. The soaring domestic soybean oil prices were hit hard, and the market price plummeted. In just two weeks, the average price of soybean oil fell by 4,000-4,500 yuan/ton. Soybean oil has become an "unable to support". Adou".
The ending of the woman surnamed Wan can be imagined. Her position was forcibly closed by the exchange, and her previous profits were wiped out. Then, in October of that year, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, all oils and fats plummeted again. The main contract of soybean oil 0905 fell to 5560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of palm oil 0905 fell to 4344 yuan/ton. At this time, the price difference between soybean and palm oil At 1,216 yuan/ton, the main rapeseed oil contract in May fell to 5,548 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was only 12 yuan/ton lower than soybean oil.
In 2008, the domestic soybean oil market experienced "ice and fire" market conditions. The rise and fall of its market trends were closely related to the theme of biofuel speculation. In early 2008, international crude oil prices continued to rise, effectively breaking through the US$100/barrel mark, which brought considerable profit margins to the biofuel industry, and the development of biofuel production in various countries was in full swing.
Among them, the United States uses soybean oil as the main raw material to develop the biofuel industry. Argentina is the world's largest country that uses soybean oil to produce fuel. In 2007, it exported 319,093 tons of biodiesel, and in 2008, its output was close to 1.5 million tons. . It is the continuous rise in international crude oil prices that has provided good opportunities for the development of biofuels at home and abroad. The demand for soybean oil has increased, pushing its market to a record high. Later, international crude oil prices continued to fall, and the biofuel industry that relied on high oil prices suffered a setback. The relationship between domestic and foreign soybean oil supply and demand eased, and the market experienced a long-term rational decline.
4. Governments from various countries came together to rescue the market, and the three major oils and fats rebounded strongly
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the state used large-scale market support, purchase, storage, transportation and other regulatory measures to make China's grain and oil The market has remained basically stable, and farmers' income from growing grains has been basically guaranteed. It is reported that in 2008, China Grain Storage System sold 68.8 million tons of grain and oil to the market, ensuring an adequate supply of grain to the market. In addition, in response to the regional tight supply and demand situation, seven batches of 7.13 million tons of inter-provincial warehouse transfer plans were organized, involving all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities except Tibet and Xinjiang. Sales volume and shipment volume both set new records.
When food crises occurred in more than 40 countries around the world, and some countries even triggered social unrest, China effectively controlled and controlled the domestic soybean oil price in the first half of 2008 to achieve a disconnect with the external market, and the market The market cooled down ahead of schedule and landed smoothly. In the second half of the year, China's continuous purchase and storage actions played an effective role in supporting the market, causing the soybean oil 0905 contract to fall to a low of 5,560 yuan/ton and then start to fluctuate and recover moderately. National regulation has played an important role in ensuring that domestic soybean oil supply does not run out of stock and remains uninterrupted, buffering the excessive rise and fall in the market.
Countries around the world are making every effort to rescue the market. After the United States passed a 700 billion rescue plan, China launched a 4 trillion economic investment plan, and the European Union approved a new 2 trillion economic stimulus plan. Moreover, in order to stimulate economic development, countries The central bank has lowered deposit and loan interest rates, accelerated infrastructure construction, encouraged people to actively consume, restored confidence, and revitalized the economy. The active rescue actions of various countries have achieved obvious results, and the world economy has bottomed out and rebounded. The oil and fat market is gradually easing pressure. After the oil market plummeted, it began to slowly recover and rebounded. In February 2011, the soybean oil 1105 contract rose to a high of 10,776 yuan/ton, and the palm oil 1105 contract rose to a high of 10,410 yuan/ton. At this time, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 1105 The contract rose to 10,678 yuan/ton.
5. Rapeseed oil is all in the State Reserve, so it is a bit difficult to find it in the market.
Rapeseed oil is an important oil in the south. In June 2007, the vegetable oil contract was listed on the Zhengzhou Exchange. The Chinese government has implemented a temporary purchase and storage policy of rapeseed for five consecutive years since 2008. Looking back at history, since 2008, the temporary storage prices of rapeseed have been 2.2 yuan, 1.85 yuan, 1.95 yuan, 2.3 yuan, and 2.5 yuan per catty respectively. This has protected farmers’ enthusiasm for planting to a certain extent and delayed the increase in rapeseed planting area. A downward trend year after year. In recent years, as the government has entrusted the market to purchase rapeseed oil and supported and subsidized agriculture, the business models of large oil and fat companies have changed.
Oil and oil manufacturers purchase rapeseed on behalf of China Grain Reserves during the harvest season, and put the pressed rapeseed oil into the national reserve for China Grain Reserves. The government implements the policy of subsidizing enterprises or entrusting the market to purchase rapeseed oil, resulting in the purchase price of rapeseed oil being significantly higher than the market price. Therefore, oil and fat companies mainly sell oil to the state rather than selling it in the market. The market support policy has increased the cost of rapeseed oil storage. A large amount of rapeseed oil is concentrated in the state reserve, and rapeseed is suddenly hard to see in the market.
As a result, two phenomena occurred in the market. First, the price difference between vegetable oil and soybean oil widened rapidly. Second, imported rapeseed oil began to pour in in large quantities. The result is that the price difference between rapeseed oil, soybean oil and palm oil has widened. In 2012, the price difference between vegetable oil and soybean oil in the September futures contract widened to 1,200 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high. In the first half of this year, rapeseed oil enjoyed great success. The subsequent imports of vegetable oil and raw materials also paved the way for the price difference to narrow again in the future.
6. The whole country condemns gutter oil, and palm oil is unreasonably affected
Before, we mentioned that vegetable oil enjoyed great success in the first half of 2012, and in the second half of this year, palm oil The oil turned pale, and the pain was excruciating! It's a world of difference compared to rapeseed oil. In 2012, due to abnormal weather, speculation about U.S. soybeans was in full swing. The Midwestern region of the United States suffered a once-in-50-year drought. During this period, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the growth rate of U.S. soybeans from 65% to 31%, the lowest during the period. 29%, US beans soared to 1738.7 cents. As an oil product that is inseparable from soybean oil, the trends of soybean and brown have always been consistent. In this year, palm oil not only failed to follow the US market, but also led soybean oil to 2,200 yuan/ton.
What is the reason why palm oil is so neglected? There are two factors. First, after entering the second half of 2012, Malaysian palm oil production increased rapidly and inventory expanded. Second, there are growing calls for a crackdown on gutter oil in China. Because the acid value of palm failed to meet the standard, and it was mixed with soybean oil in the summer, it became a target of counterfeiting. In June 2012, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Inspection and Supervision of Imported Edible Oils" and it will be implemented from January 1, 2013. Targeted adjustments have been made to China's palm oil market. The notice stipulates that any palm oil that does not meet the standards will not be allowed to be imported.
At that time, most of the edible palm oil imported into the country did not meet the acid price standards, and the imported palm oil that did not meet the standards required secondary refining, which increased the difficulty and cost of shipping!
This is not the end of it. In 2012, China’s attitude towards cracking down on gutter oil was very resolute. In the summer, some traders in the south mixed palm oil with other oils and fats to reduce costs. In addition, the acid price of palm oil is not up to standard, so palm oil has been overly suppressed, and some small traders have been criminally prosecuted. People in the market are panicked and are avoiding palm oil. The sales of palm oil are even worse.
We are born from the same roots, why rush each other! Palm did not prosper in the summer peak season of 2012, and soon separated from soybean oil. The difference between spot and market prices for soybeans and palms reached as much as 2,200 yuan/ton, which is extremely rare in history. At the end of 2012, the main contract for soybean oil in May closed at 8,612 yuan/ton, the main contract for palm oil in May closed at 6,922 yuan/ton, and the main contract for vegetable oil in May closed at 9,754 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybeans and palm oil this year Expanded to the largest in history. Soybean oil was a clear winner, while palm oil was languishing in sales.
7. The market is unable to move upward, and the three major oils are busy looking for a bottom
The overall trend of the oil market in 2014 has become even heavier. To put it into context, crude oil futures fell 46% in 2014. In 2013/14, Argentina’s soybean area was 20.35 million hectares, an increase of 3.29% from 19.7 million hectares in 2012/13. Brazil’s soybean area was 29.2 million hectares, an increase of 6.18% from 27.5 million hectares in 2012/13. South America has a bumper harvest. , and the U.S. soybean planting area hit a record, the U.S. soybean once started a sharp decline that lasted for four months, falling 22% for the whole year, the U.S. soybean oil fell 17%, and the Dalian soybean oil futures fell 16.34%. Affected by the severe negative external and fundamental conditions, domestic soybean oil spot prices have suffered heavy losses, and prices have continued to hit new lows. As of December 31, the mainstream spot price of first-grade soybean oil in coastal areas dropped to 5630-5820 yuan/ton, a year-on-year plunge. The price ranges from 1,310 to 1,370 yuan/ton.
The oil and fat plummet in 2014 did not end. In 2015, oil and fat continued to decline and bottomed out. In mid-June, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and other ministries and commissions jointly issued the "About Doing a Good Job in Rapeseed Acquisition in 2015" "Work Notice", the notice pointed out that starting from 2015, local governments will be responsible for organizing various enterprises to purchase rapeseed, and Sinograin will no longer lead the acquisition, and the 7-year-old rapeseed market purchase and storage policy has come to an end.
Therefore, although domestic rapeseed production has been reduced again this year (the sown area continues to shrink and the yield per unit area is poor), without the support of temporary storage and acquisition, domestic rapeseed has no advantage in facing the competition of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil. (At that time, the price of domestic rapeseed based on imported rapeseed pressed rapeseed oil and rapeseed oil was inferred to be 1.65-1.75 yuan/jin). Commercial demand dropped sharply (enterprises were short of funds and risks were difficult to control), especially the acquisition volume of 200-type rapeseed processing enterprises. dropped sharply, and most companies are not producing normally. Although the 95-type strong-flavor companies digested most of the rapeseed throughout the year, during the period of concentrated supply, the rapeseed market was still out of balance, and prices in various production areas fell sharply. During the peak period of traditional acquisitions, In this period, the price for growers dropped to as low as 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31% from the previous year.
The domestic rapeseed oil market was affected by the overall weakness of the vegetable oil market, the sharp drop in crude oil prices, the suspension of purchasing and storage, and the selling of rapeseed oil. The price performance was weak, and the market showed bottom fluctuations throughout the year. In 2015, the three major oils were on the decline, looking for their own bottoms, and the bottoms of the three major oils were found at different times in the second half of 2015. The main low points of the three major oils, soybean oil, palm oil and vegetable oil, are 5158 yuan/ton, 3984 yuan/ton and 5480 yuan/ton respectively. After several years of ups and downs, the price difference between the three oil brothers has finally returned to normal. It can be said that the brothers have survived all the tribulations, but they met at the lowest point.
8. Malaysia’s palm oil production is tight, and the three armed forces are leading the surge
In 2016, hot money in the commodity market led by the improvement of the domestic macro environment led to the influx of commodity market sectors. The transactions were obvious, and black commodities led the upward trend of commodity prices throughout the process. Industrial products cut overcapacity and inventory reduction achieved obvious results, and the agricultural products sector benefited greatly from this.
Malaysia's palm oil production reduction and strict import entry inspection requirements have extended the inspection time from 4-5 days to more than half a month, resulting in extremely tight palm oil supply. The inventory once dropped to a historical low of about 300,000 tons, which is far lower than the same period in previous years. At a level of about 750,000 tons, the supply of palm oil in the south is close to being out of stock, which has promoted the crazy rise of palm oil and has become the "leader" in the oil industry. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil has continued to narrow to a historical low, and the spot price of the two has even At one time, it was upside down at 72 yuan/ton.
On the market, the September contract of bean palm actually had a price difference of only 200 yuan/ton. Things are changing, and this year palm oil became the boss. At the end of 2016, the closing prices of the main May contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6,980 yuan/ton, 6,202 yuan/ton, and 7,230 yuan/ton respectively. The price differences were within the normal range.
Attachment 2: Trend chart of soybean-brown price difference
9. The State Reserve sells oil to pressure the market, and rapeseed oil is no longer in the spotlight
my country’s rapeseed temporary The purchase and storage system was promulgated in 2008 and implemented the following year, but was canceled in 2015. During the period from 2009 to 2015, the rotation of state-owned rapeseed oil was carried out three times, but the transaction results were not satisfactory, resulting in a large backlog of rapeseed oil stocks. As the Central Economic Work Conference in 2016 put forward the "destocking" instruction, the State Reserve of rapeseed oil began to vigorously sell off reserves, and the starting price dropped to 5,300 yuan/ton.
From 2015 to 2016, the country began to stockpile vegetable oil. As the country began to stockpile vegetable oil again, the price of rapeseed oil was instantly brought back to its original shape, making it a prisoner. The price difference of soybean and rapeseed oil also collapsed immediately, falling from the once high price difference of 1,200 yuan/ton, until the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was as high as 200yuan/ton. Later, as the State Reserve's selling decreased, the price difference between soybeans and vegetables widened again. By the end of the year, the main contract of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was about 240 yuan/ton higher than the main contract of soybean oil.
10. The strength of oils and fats has changed over the past ten years, with ups and downs in soybeans, palm oil and vegetables
Soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil were listed in 2006 and 2007 respectively. The ten-year history of futures of the three major oils and fats , is also the most critical and exciting stage in the history of my country's oil and fat market. Fluctuations in the international political situation, disturbances in related commodities, formulation of national policies, and unpredictable weather are all affecting the price trends of the three types of oils. In the past ten years, the three brothers have been close to each other, sometimes at war with each other, sometimes in calm situations, or sometimes holding together for warmth. Although they parted ways, they still stayed together and always stood at the forefront of the oil market.
Through the analysis of three types of oils and fats in the past ten years, we have seen the inherent law of the price difference between the three oils and fats. That is, the normal price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in summer is about 600 yuan/ton, while the price difference in winter Around 1,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is normally between 300-600 yuan/ton. This is just a price difference under normal circumstances. If extreme circumstances occur, the normal relationship will soon be broken and magnified. In 2012, soybean oil was 2,200 yuan/ton higher than palm oil. By September 2016, the price difference between soybean and palm oil was 200 yuan/ton. The spot price was once upside down at 72 yuan/ton. In the past four years, the price of soybean oil had reached 2,000 yuan/ton. This is a classic example. .
The long road to Xiongguan is really like iron, but now we are crossing it from the beginning. Any trend that is divorced from reality and goes against the norm will eventually return to its normal track. After ten years of fighting, today the price difference between the three main oil companies has formed a certain fluctuation pattern. So, who will be the navigator again in the next game?
Risk warning: This article is shared by an old writer and has nothing to do with the current market, so please read it as you wish.