Political questions and answers about the Olympic Games
Nowadays, China's entry into the WTO and the Olympic Games are two hot spots in China's economy and society. Comparatively speaking, our thinking about China's entry into WTO is much calmer and more detailed, and we have seen both long-term benefits and recent challenges and crises. Thinking about the Olympic Games is more about passion than rationality.
It is the knowledge of most people that hosting the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing will promote the economic and social development of China, especially the capital. However, the extent to which this promotion can be exerted depends on the subjective and objective conditions of the host country, especially the ability of decision makers and executors to seize opportunities and the level of coping with challenges. Because opportunities and challenges not only coexist, but also interact with each other, and the premise of grasping opportunities is always to clearly sort out challenges and respond scientifically.
"Olympic economy" is a vivid statement, which refers to the influence and function of hosting the Olympic Games as a new variable on the economic development of the host country and region. It can be positive or negative. In fact, before the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games, the economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host countries and regions, especially the financial impact, was basically negative. Only after the commercial operation of the last five Olympic Games, the host countries and regions have gained more and more remarkable economic benefits. The 2008 Olympic Games is the first time in the history of modern Olympic Games to be held by developing countries and countries with economies in transition, which means that we may face more difficulties and challenges if we want to start the Olympic economy and give full play to the role of the Olympic Games in promoting economic growth. Reflecting on the "Olympic economy", the following issues deserve attention:
You can't lack the premise.
"Olympic economy" is the interaction between Olympic Games and economy and society. Whether and to what extent the 2008 Olympic Games can promote the economic growth of China and Beijing is directly related to the economic development at home and abroad in the future 10. That is to say, the world economy, American economy, China economy and capital economy can't experience big fluctuations in the next 10 year, especially the American economy and China economy can't experience big recession, which is the premise and foundation. It is not rigorous and irresponsible to talk about the "Olympic economy" without this premise. However, the existing research does not pay enough attention to this premise, and it is more static and isolated research.
In fact, only by analyzing and predicting the economic development trends of these four levels as accurately as possible can we find the convergence point between the Olympic Games and economic development and maximize the effectiveness of the "Olympic economy".
The effect cannot be exaggerated.
To what extent the Beijing Olympic Games can promote economic growth, institutions and personnel at home and abroad have made some predictions. Goldman Sachs, an internationally renowned investment bank, believes that from 2002 to 2008, the Beijing Olympic Games will boost China's GDP growth by 0.3% every year; Dr. John Yang of China Academy of Social Sciences believes that it can boost GDP growth1%every year; According to the data of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the contribution rate of the Olympic Games to Beijing's economic growth in the next seven years is to increase GDP by 2.5% every year. The author believes that these research results are overestimated.
First of all, how much investment should be counted as the new investment triggered by the Olympic Games. Now it is generally said to be 280 billion. Obviously, 280 billion yuan is not exact. Because most of the infrastructure construction of 654.38+08 billion yuan is included in the Tenth Five-Year Plan of Beijing, it needs to be invested whether or not to host the Olympic Games, so it cannot be counted as Olympic investment. In other words, the total investment of 280 billion yuan should be deducted from Beijing's infrastructure investment in the next seven years (not hosting the Olympic Games), and the rest can be counted as Olympic investment.
Secondly, according to international practice, the economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host region refers to the comprehensive effect of investment flowing into the region from outside (including foreign countries and other domestic regions) in stimulating economic growth, increasing the income of local residents and expanding employment. This influence includes four aspects: direct influence, indirect influence, induced influence and total influence.
The direct impact refers to the new benefits generated by the expenses of the organizing Committee of the competition in purchasing goods and services in the region; Indirect influence refers to the new income generated by the local consumption of tourists attracted by competition; Induced influence refers to the multiplier effect of direct and indirect influence, which is generally measured by regional input-output model. For example, the Atlanta Organizing Committee used the "RIMSII" of the US Department of Commerce to calculate the induced impact of the 1996 Olympic Games; The total impact refers to the sum of the first three items.
In other words, the extent to which the Olympic Games can promote the economic growth of the capital does not depend on the adjustment of the internal stock funds in Beijing, but on the amount of incremental funds introduced from outside and the number of domestic and foreign tourists attracted. We don't know these two aspects now, so we can't simply use the budget to calculate mechanically. It is certain that the Olympic Games can promote the economic growth of the host region, but this role cannot be exaggerated at will.
Finance will not fall into the trap.
The knife cuts bread and fingers. This sentence is the most accurate way to describe the financial relationship between the Olympic Games and the host country and region. As a developing country and a country with economic transition, China will face greater financial risks when hosting the Olympic Games.
First, the management system, which does not distinguish between management and operation, puts the government in a position of unlimited responsibility. The Chinese Olympic Committee and the State Sports General Administration are two brands and a set of people; Although the Beijing Organizing Committee in 2008 is a newly established organization, its position, function, operation mode and personnel composition determine that it is not only a functional department of the government, but also a "half-city government". On the one hand, because there is no pressure of "bankruptcy", it is difficult for the government to run the Olympic Games with desperate efficiency; On the other hand, it is difficult for government agencies accustomed to how much money is given by finance to have a real sense of cost awareness and cost monitoring mechanism. The loss of efficiency and rising costs mean debts, and the debts owed by the government will naturally be paid by the finance.
Second, the "hitchhiking" behavior of relevant government departments has increased the pressure on fiscal expenditure. After the successful Olympic bid, many departments quickly formulated some Olympic action plans or programs. Although these plans are subjectively positive, they will objectively bring pressure to the central government.
Third, the weak ability of commercial development is forcing the state treasury. The commercial development of the Olympic Games is the largest, most difficult and most internationalized project in sports industry management, which is positively related to the overall development level and internationalization level of the sports industry in the host country. China's sports industry has just started, and there is a lack of senior talents familiar with the operation of international sports business. Once the commercial development of the Olympic Games fails to reach the predetermined goal, the funding gap can only be made up by finance.
Fourthly, the organization cost of the Olympic Games is soaring, which also puts great pressure on the host country's finance. In recent Olympic Games, on the one hand, business development ability is getting stronger and stronger, and business income is getting better and better; On the other hand, the organizational cost of non-competitive factors is getting higher and higher.
After the "9. 1 1" incident, the IOC's requirements for Olympic security have been significantly improved. Recently, the Bush administration added $70 million to the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, making the security premium of this Winter Olympics reach a record $3 1 10,000, of which $240 million was provided by the federal government. In 2008, we may face more and higher requirements, and the financial pressure will further increase. Therefore, the financial department should take precautions, organize relevant experts to carry out special research as soon as possible, and put forward specific methods and measures to resolve financial risks, paying special attention to solving problems from the institutional mechanism.
Domestic enterprises can't go out.
Olympic Games is the most influential marketing platform in the era of economic globalization. The Olympic Games since 1984 have brought better and better economic benefits to the host country, largely because the International Olympic Committee has followed the trend of economic globalization led by multinational corporations and developed a series of "opportunities" for marketing and communication in coordination with the global expansion of multinational corporations. The sky-high price of TV broadcasting rights and the popularity of TOP plan are the best explanations.
The internationalization and elitism of business development of the Olympic Games have brought business opportunities to first-class enterprises and helplessness to small and medium-sized enterprises. The overall international competitiveness of China enterprises is weak, and it is rare for them to rank among the top in the same industry in the world. This is also the reason why it is difficult to find China enterprises on the marketing stage of recent Olympic Games.
However, in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, domestic enterprises must not be eliminated. This is because, on the one hand, we paid a huge amount of money for hosting the Olympic Games; On the other hand, if foreign companies monopolize the Olympic business opportunities on a large scale, although we may benefit more from the book of the organizing Committee, it may not be cost-effective from the perspective of the income of the whole national economy. Apart from political and cultural considerations, China hopes to further stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand and stimulate growth by hosting the Olympic Games. To achieve this goal, we can only provide domestic enterprises with as many opportunities as possible to participate in the Olympic economy. Therefore, the current BOCOG must seriously consider a problem, that is, how to create more business opportunities for domestic enterprises under the principle of fairness, openness and justice without damaging the commercial interests of the IOC. The fundamental way to solve this problem lies in the innovation of Olympic marketing methods and means, that is, aiming at the needs and capabilities of domestic enterprises, developing a new Olympic marketing opportunities and taking the road of combining internationalization and elitism of high-end products (TOP plan, sponsors of the organizing committee, etc.). With the localization and popularization of low-end products (franchising, suppliers, etc.). ).
The sequela of the Olympic Games is inevitable.
People's views on beautiful things are always tolerant and generous. In the eyes of people who love the Olympic Games, the sequela of the Olympic Games is like the broken arm of the goddess Nass, which is not only harmony, but also a beauty of regret. So most people get used to Song Yu's achievements and forgive them.
Perhaps it is precisely because of this mentality that the sequela of the Olympic Games has become the "cycle rate" in the history of modern Olympic Games, and it is difficult for every Olympic host country to jump out. Judging from the recent five Olympic Games, whether it is the groundbreaking Los Angeles Olympic Games or the most successful Sydney Olympic Games, there have been some problems in varying degrees, such as idle stadiums, difficult sales of buildings in the Olympic Village, low utilization rate of infrastructure, and difficult return on investment. Judging from the degree of injury, the two Olympic Games held in the United States suffered less injuries, while the three Olympic Games in Seoul, Barcelona and Sydney suffered more injuries and the symptoms were more obvious. There are two main reasons for this difference: first, it is related to the overall economic development level of the host country and the perfection of the market system. The higher the level of economic development, the lighter the task of building and rebuilding stadiums and public infrastructure; The market system is perfect, and the industries and formats are complete. A large number of Olympic materials can be solved by entrusted leasing as long as they purchase the right to use, and the possibility of natural sequelae is small. Second, it is related to the degree of government participation. The higher the degree of government participation, the greater the possibility of sequelae. From this point of view, if the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is not prevented early, there may be more serious sequelae.
To prevent the sequela of the Olympic Games, we must first find the root cause. From an economic point of view, the so-called sequela of the Olympic Games essentially refers to the recession caused by excessive supply growth relative to effective demand. Therefore, in order to prevent the sequela of the Olympic Games, we must start with curbing the oversupply. First of all, all Olympic planning and construction projects should be based on the actual effective demand, and the peak demand during the Olympic Games should be leveled by restraining the demand of local residents. Secondly, in the implementation, we should adjust the three bidding concepts, with clear priorities. The status of the People's Olympics should be promoted and strengthened, the high-tech Olympics and the green Olympics should be moderate, and the implementation cost should be controlled. Thirdly, standardize government behavior, reduce unnecessary administrative intervention, and curb the "hitchhiking" behavior of relevant departments and institutions. Finally, accelerate the construction of market system, vigorously develop modern service industry, especially intermediary industry, leasing industry, network industry and modern logistics industry, so as to provide market foundation and technical means for the prevention and treatment of Olympic sequelae.
There is no doubt that China, which is growing stronger in the reform and opening up, is fully capable of hosting the most successful Olympic Games in the history of the next Olympic Games. However, when we pursue the perfect result, we have to consider the actual cost and opportunity cost. After all, we are hosting the Olympic Games under the historical conditions of the primary stage of socialism. For the people of China, there is only one answer to the most successful Olympic Games, and that is the Olympic Games that will benefit the people of the whole country.