Post-seismic investigation of the 12·16 Haiyuan earthquake
After the Haiyuan earthquake, many seismologists went deep into the earthquake area, conducted on-site inspections of the Haiyuan earthquake, and obtained a large amount of precious information. The year after the Haiyuan earthquake in 1920, the then three ministries of internal affairs, education, and agriculture and commerce sent six committee members including Weng Wenhao and Xie Jiarong to the disaster area to investigate. They left Beijing on April 15, 1921, arrived in Lanzhou via Hohhot and Yinchuan, then entered the earthquake area, went to Guyuan via Huining and Jingning, and returned to Lanzhou via Pingliang and Tianshui. The investigation lasted four months. In addition to understanding the disaster situation, they also focused on scientific investigation. The information from the investigation by Weng Wenhao and six others is very valuable. Although transportation was inconvenient at that time, the scope of their investigation was limited, and they were unable to conduct on-site inspections of most places in the earthquake area. However, the large amount of first-hand information they obtained still has high scientific value to this day. This investigation by Weng Wenhao and his party can be called the first detailed scientific investigation of a major earthquake in my country's earthquake history. At the same time, j.W. Hall, U. Clormik, E. McCormik, etc. of the International Hunger Relief Association also The results of the investigation into the earthquake zone were published in the American Geographic Magazine in 1922 under the title "Where to Walk in the Mountains." This report cited a large amount of actual information about the disaster, especially a vivid description of the earthquake landslide, and attached precious photos of the earthquake damage. After liberation, my country's earthquake work has developed rapidly. In 1958, the Institute of Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences sent six comrades, including Guo Zengjian, to form an earthquake expedition team to conduct an on-site investigation of the Haiyuan earthquake. This was another large-scale investigation after Weng Wenhao and others. This expedition team traveled over mountains and ridges, across ditches and rivers for more than a month, and obtained a wealth of first-hand information. Later, seismological departments such as the Lanzhou Seismological Research Institute visited the earthquake area for inspection. Compiled and published the book "The Great Haiyuan Earthquake of 1920". In 1979, the Lanzhou Seismological Bureau Research Institute of the State Seismological Administration and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Seismological Team held the "1920 Haiyuan Earthquake Academic Symposium" in Yinchuan to discuss issues related to this earthquake. After the 1980s, research on the Haiyuan Active Fault Zone project was included. Experts from the National Institute of Geology and the Ningxia Earthquake Bureau took four years to complete and publish the scientific work "Haiyuan Fault Zone" on the basis of significant scientific research.
The Haiyuan earthquake and the Haiyuan active fault zone have aroused great interest among Chinese and foreign scientists. Relics of surface deformation such as fractures, landslides, ground fissures, and bulges and depressions caused by major earthquakes are still intact after decades of vicissitudes. In addition, relics of ancient earthquake events and tectonic activities have also been discovered in the area from Liupan Mountain to Helan Mountain. Scientists believe that Ningxia is not only a unique museum of historical earthquake relics, but also a textbook for the study of active earthquake faults. From 1981 to the present, more than 10 groups of more than 30 foreign experts from Japan, the United States, the former Soviet Union, Canada, and Thailand have come to Ningxia to engage in earthquake investigation and research. More domestic experts are coming. China Haiyuan has not only once again become a "feng shui treasure land" for the world's geoscientific circles to pay attention to and carry out earthquake research, but has also become a "window" for the world to know Ningxia and understand Ningxia!
Until the Haiyuan earthquake occurred 5 Months later, the Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Education, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce jointly dispatched six people, including Xie Jiarong and Weng Wenhao, to conduct a four-month on-site inspection in the disaster area. The report produced by this inspection plays a very important role in the history of earthquakes in China.
In addition to giving a detailed description of the earthquake, Xie Jiarong, Weng Wenhao and others also expressed many opinions on earthquake prevention and response. Weng Wenhao, China's first doctor of geology and later the president of the Executive Yuan of the Republic of China, stated in the "Petition for Opinions on the Investigation of the Gansu Earthquake" that the intensity of earthquakes is unprecedented in the world, but this Haiyuan earthquake killed many people The number is rare in other countries. In foreign earthquakes, most people are injured and few die. In the Haiyuan earthquake, there are many dead, injured and few survivors. Analyzing the reasons, he believed that it was related to the fact that most people here lived in caves on loess slopes, and even if there were houses, they were mostly made of mud.
The improvements Weng Wenhao proposed include "it is advisable to advise people to use wooden pillars and beams to support each other when building buildings, so that the common people can support them", as well as planting forests and dredging water conservancy.
Regarding earthquake research, Weng Wenhao also suggested that the Central Observatory and the Geological Survey Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce should work together to change the situation of neither specialized equipment nor specialized talents.
He also specifically mentioned the installation of the "seismograph": "Zhang Heng built the seismograph in the Han Dynasty and was the prophet of the Longxi earthquake in Chang'an. Our country was the first country to invent the seismograph. Unfortunately, no one succeeded it, and it was lost. It was used in Europe, America and Japan in modern times. The seismometer is regarded as a great improvement in ancient seismographs, which can conduct extremely precise research on wave states... This must be planned early."
And later earthquake precursors and predictions. Related is Xie Jiarong of the Geological Survey of the Ministry of Agriculture and Commerce, "Report on the Gansu Earthquake in December of the Nine Years of the Republic of China", which mentions the strange weather, ringing sounds, and expansion and contraction of wells and springs before and after the earthquake, as well as his own opinions. Reports from the governors of Dingxi, Jingning and other counties showed that there were strong winds and morning fog during the earthquake, while Ganzhou, Yumen and other counties reported strong winds and darkness the day after the earthquake, with yellow sand flying into the sky. The governor of Haiyuan County also said that he "saw a red light" during the earthquake. Xie Jiarong believes that "Dust fog or day darkness occurs during earthquakes because dust, soot, etc. fly up after shaking, or because mountains collapse and loess scatters in the air. It is not surprising that this phenomenon occurs." As for the red light phenomenon, Xie Jiarong Unable to explain it, I thought it was "probably not entirely certain."
The so-called sound refers to the sound like thunder and cannon before and after the earthquake. In some places, there is no sound during the earthquake. Xie Jiarong said that the level of the sound waves seems to be directly related to the strength of the vibration. As for the sound generation and vibration, which comes before and after, it seems not sure. He did not associate the pre-earthquake sounds with earthquake precursors.
The changes in groundwater have also received attention. Jingchuan, Dingxi, Huining and other counties reported that the wells and springs after the earthquake tasted slightly saltier than before. Ningxia, Jingning, Huanxian and other counties reported that the spring water rose from a few feet to more than ten feet after the earthquake. The spring water in Ningxia County was slightly warmer and smellier than before the earthquake. There were reports of wells and springs drying up in Tongwei and Haiyuan counties. In Longde County, wells and springs suddenly swelled before the earthquake and then recovered after the earthquake. Xie Jiarong believes that the changes in Jingquan vary depending on the topography and geology of various places, and cannot be generalized. As for whether the reports of these counties are true or simply far-fetched, it is difficult to determine. He just listed them "for future research." .
It was not until more than 30 years later that the study of these abnormal phenomena suddenly became a prominent science in China.
In the view of Guo Anning, a researcher at the Lanzhou Seismological Research Institute of the China Earthquake Administration, the Haiyuan earthquake is unique not only in its magnitude and high death toll. "The investigation by Weng Wenhao and others symbolizes the beginning of seismology in China and is a milestone. At the same time, the first shot of China's modern earthquake prediction was also fired from there." He told Nandu reporters.
The investigation by Guo Zengjian and others fired the “first shot of modern earthquake prediction”
The so-called “first shot of modern earthquake prediction” was launched in 1958 after the founding of New China. Guo Anning's father, Guo Zengjian, is one of the representatives who explores earthquake prediction.
“At that time, the First Five-Year Plan of New China had just ended, and the Soviet Union helped China with many large projects. Their experts required that the earthquake conditions in these places must be known before designing drawings and construction. . We are fully committed to this work," said Guo Zengjian, who was born in 1931 and entered the Institute of Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1953.
The Haiyuan Earthquake that occurred more than 30 years ago has become a key project of the Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The inspection team, also composed of 6 people, started from Beijing and visited Haiyuan, Guyuan and Xiji counties for more than 20 days.
Guo Zengjian said that the focus of their visit and inspection was earthquake prediction. "Why do we need to do forecasting? It has something to do with the political situation at that time, because during the Great Leap Forward, the central government proposed to 'walk on two legs', which means that both local and foreign methods must be used. Scientific research units have set ambitious goals. We proposed to do earthquakes Earthquake forecasting also involves walking on two legs, and there are some instruments for observing earthquake precursors. This is considered the foreign aspect; the local aspect is that we went to Haiyuan to investigate. What were the common people observing before the earthquake? Six of us went to conduct a comprehensive visit.”
The issue of groundwater changes was raised by local people. "They said the spring was very big before the earthquake but disappeared after the earthquake. They asked us to help find it. We couldn't find it because the strata have changed." Guo Zengjian recalled that local residents also mentioned that the temperature changes before and after the earthquake made the six of them This was also discussed at the time.
“This is the first time that China has discussed the issue of earthquake prediction on a small scale.” Guo Zengjian said that at that time, he just felt that earthquake prediction was difficult and did not hear any opposition from abroad. Moreover, Japan and the Soviet Union both said that they would do it. Earthquake prediction.
After more than 20 days of travel, Guo Zengjian and others discovered a long earthquake fault zone that Weng Wenhao and others had not discovered before. What will have a more far-reaching impact on China's earthquake undertakings in the future is that the earthquake prediction precursor system was established during this inspection.
The precursors of the Haiyuan earthquake are mainly attributed to groundwater, animals, ground sounds, ground light, weather, etc. "Future earthquake precursors will basically be of these types, except that there was an additional layer of air mist before the Haicheng earthquake." Guo Zengjian said. They ended up writing a report and engraved it in more than two dozen copies on wax paper. The first shot of China’s earthquake prediction was fired.
For a long time thereafter, the observation of earthquake precursors was quite popular in China. Many people object that earthquakes can be predicted, mainly because of the emergence of two theories: chaos theory and self-organized criticality theory. In 1999, the China Association for Science and Technology organized more than a dozen first-level associations to discuss the issue of disaster prevention. I responded to these two theories and believed that it is theoretically predictable, but we have not yet achieved it in fact. ”
China’s earthquake prediction is at an embarrassing juncture. Guo Zengjian’s son Guo Anning is also a strong advocate of earthquake prediction, but he also admitted that earthquake prediction has lost support in the international mainstream academic circles. Many so-called "earthquake precursors" do not cause earthquakes subsequently, and in other places, there are no such precursors, which makes it difficult to judge "earthquake precursors".
But he also believes that this is not a reason to block the exploration of earthquake prediction. As a researcher of earthquake systems, he obviously feels that his ideas are difficult to obtain support even within the earthquake bureau system, and even his books on earthquake prediction. No earthquake publishing house is willing to publish it.
At the Haiyuan Earthquake Academic Seminar to be held tomorrow in Haiyuan, Zhang Peizhen, director of the Institute of Geology of the China Earthquake Administration, will give an academic report on "The Development of Earthquake Science and Technology." The topic of earthquake prediction will also spark sparks again at this original starting point.
90 years have passed, and pretentious humans have become more and more powerless in the face of huge natural disasters.
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The Haiyuan earthquake may be the least-remembered disaster in the world.
Haiyuan, a remote county in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, was known to few people 90 years ago. The earthquake at the epicenter seems to be buried under the loess of the plateau, and is as unknown as Haiyuan.
However, with only a few numbers, the Haiyuan earthquake should be remembered forever - the magnitude was 8.5 on the Richter scale. magnitude, the energy released was equivalent to 11.2 Tangshan earthquakes. It was not only rare in the history of China, but also one of the largest earthquakes in the world. At that time, 96 seismic stations in the world recorded this earthquake, and the Haiyuan earthquake was also known as the earthquake. It is called the "Great Earthquake of the World".
According to the latest research results, the death toll from the Haiyuan Earthquake reached 270,000 in the vast and sparsely populated northwest area. The earthquake showed how tragic it was.
December 16, 2010, was the 90th anniversary of the earthquake. On this day, the Haiyuan Earthquake Museum was officially opened, and the dust of that unprecedented disaster was opened. , for people to pay homage and review.