Will 2020 be a warm winter or a cold winter?

The difference between warm winter and cold winter. Warm winter refers to the period from the beginning of winter to the spring of next year when the number of days with the lowest temperature above zero is greater than the number of days below zero. Cold winter refers to the period from the beginning of winter to tomorrow's spring when the number of days with the lowest temperature below zero is greater than the number of days above zero.

China has a vast territory, a long distance between the north and the south, and a large temperature difference between the north and the south. Therefore, more than 90% of the south has warm winters, and more than 90% of the north has cold winters. Therefore, regions other than the south and north may experience warm winters or cold winters.

The primary condition for producing warm winter and cold winter is the location and distance of the sun. The more southerly the sun shines, the colder the north, the colder the north, the more cold air, the more cold air, and the weather The colder it is, the farther north the sun shines, the temperature in the north is slightly higher, the temperature in the north is slightly higher, the less cold air is produced, the less cold air is produced, and it is not cold every day. The closer the sun shines, the less the sun's heat energy is dissipated in the air, and the higher the surface temperature is. The farther the sun shines, the more the sun's heat energy is dissipated in the air, and the lower the surface temperature is.

The secondary conditions for producing warm winter and cold winter are the amount of water vapor produced on the ground and the diffusion of water vapor in the air. In winter, as the sun moves southward and the distance is remote, the amount of sun irradiation increases. There is less heat energy, the temperature is low, the temperature is low, the evaporation of water vapor is reduced, the evaporation of water vapor is reduced, the gas flow is reduced, the gas flow is reduced, the air pressure is weakened, the air pressure is weakened, the diffusion of water vapor in the air is weakened, the diffusion of water vapor in the air is weakened, Water vapor in the air falls either as rain, or as fog and snow. Rain, fog and snow can all bring cooling.

The third condition for producing warm winter and cold winter is the question of which one is stronger, the cold air in the north or the warm and humid air flow in the south. If the warm and humid air flow is strong in the south, then the weather will be warm. If it is the cold air in the north, If it is strong, the weather will be cold.

Having said the above three conditions that produce warm winter and cold winter, the first condition is that sunlight is an uncertain factor, and the second condition is that this year’s plum rain season is too long and the soil moisture is sufficient. If the soil moisture is sufficient, it will There is a continuous flow of water vapor into the air, so the probability of rain and snow in autumn and winter this year is greatly increased, and cooling is inevitable. The third condition is that the warm and humid air flow from the south cannot effectively interfere with other areas of China due to high air humidity, and the cold air from the north will cool other areas of China because cold air from abroad enters our country.

To sum up, today’s winter is a cold winter in other parts of my country except the south and north.

The probability of a warm winter in 2020 is extremely high. Although there is a La Niña phenomenon brewing, even if it occurs, it may not be able to change the situation of high temperatures. Therefore, although the La Niña phenomenon is a signal to trigger cooling, But the heat is still at its "top". The World Meteorological Organization has just issued a statement that 2020 may become the hottest year in history. At the same time, we will understand if we look at the recent climate conditions. First of all, 2020 will be about extremes. There are still many climate phenomena, especially there are many opinions about "high temperature". For example, the Arctic experienced an extreme high temperature of 38 degrees this year.

In recent days, the abnormal "sea temperature" in Japan's offshore waters has triggered heated discussions. Many people are wondering whether it is related to the brewing of the "La Niña phenomenon" in the ocean area. It is true that the La Niña phenomenon may develop this year, but it is not certain whether the recent warming of Japan's offshore waters is related to the La Niña phenomenon, but its existence will inevitably affect the climate.

Because the development of La Niña phenomenon is also a normal phenomenon under natural climate change, it does not directly explain a change in Japan’s offshore temperature. Let’s first understand the Japan’s offshore temperature. What is the abnormality? Then let’s talk about the development of the La Niña phenomenon and whether it will produce an extreme cold pattern for our country.

How “abnormal” is the temperature in Japan’s offshore waters?

According to data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the temperature in Japan's southern ocean area has recently experienced extremely "abnormal" conditions. The sea surface temperature is much higher than the normal level. Among them, southeastern Kanto, Shikoku/ The area outside the East China Sea and east of Okinawa is very obvious. According to monitoring data, these areas basically set high temperature records in August. At the strongest time, the ocean temperature in many areas exceeded 30 degrees, which was really a "sea water rolling" mode.

Judging from the average data, the southeastern Kanto region of Japan is 29.3°C (the normal value is + 1.6°C), and the areas outside Shikoku and the East China Sea are 29.8°C (the normal value is + 1.6°C). The difference between +1.7°C) and 30.7°C (normal average for eastern Okinawa) is +2.1°C (both initial values), which is the highest sea surface temperature in August since analytical values ​​began to be available in 1982 , which is also the period when the normal difference is the highest in August.

Next, a corresponding situation may occur in Japan. It is expected that the sea surface temperature will not weaken until late September, which may bring a major disaster to Japan, because a typhoon has recently passed by. It is equivalent to a "catalyst".

Is the abnormal temperature in Japan’s offshore waters related to the brewing of La Niña? Will La Niña emerge?

Obviously, there may be certain factors, but more of them are in these aspects, that is, the Pacific high pressure in the eastern/western Japan and southern Japan waters is too strong, and there are also strong Warm winds and sunlight influence, so this leads to abnormal fluctuations in Japan's offshore temperature. As for the development of La Niña phenomenon, it can indeed be shown that it is also happening now. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of La Niña phenomenon from September to November this year is expected to be 60%, so this probability is still very high.

At the same time, we have also seen a cliff-like decline in the index area in recent days. Now the lowest is in the range of -0.6 degrees to -0.8 degrees, which is enough to show that its development has been in recent times. , so the impact on this year’s climate may appear slowly, and it is basically certain that a La Niña phenomenon will occur. Of course, everyone knows that La Niña, like El Niño, is a phenomenon involving fluctuations in ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific and changes in atmospheric circulation at various levels. The La Niña phenomenon has occurred, and its cooling signal is about to appear, so our country is prone to cold winters or colder conditions.

Will my country experience severe cold weather like 2008?

What we can be sure of is that the La Niña phenomenon does have a cooling effect, but it does not mean that the same severe cold climate phenomenon as in 2008 will occur, because global warming now occupies a dominant position, and in 2020 We have also seen that high temperatures continue to rise in 2020, so even if La Niña does occur, its cooling signal will not be enough to offset the impact of human-induced climate change. Scientists have made it clear that 2020 may still be the hottest year on record. One of the warmest years.

As we all know from the abnormally high temperatures in offshore areas in August, today’s climate is still dominated by heat. With ocean temperatures so high, the impact on land areas will definitely be greater, so it is more Most of them prefer warm winters, and our country is unlikely to experience the same severe cold weather conditions as in 2008. It may be difficult for us to encounter any ice and snow patterns again. Unless there are some short-term extreme climate phenomena, this probability is still there, because they are the product of global warming.

So overall, the climate anomalies in 2020 have clearly appeared. Now it can be determined, but it is distributed in different regions, and the impact may be different. As for the development of the La Niña phenomenon, the impact it will have depends entirely on the intensity of the development of La Niña. If the latest La Niña phenomenon occurred from 2017 to 2018 year, the intensity was weak to moderate.

As for the intensity of this event in 2020, we will only know it later, but its occurrence will definitely trigger climate fluctuations in 2020. There is no guessing about this, it is a major climate change.

Hail in the spring and heavy rain in the summer. This year’s weather is so abnormal that there is a greater chance of a mild winter.

This winter’s temperature is very likely to be dominated by a warm winter, mainly due to the rise of the global atmosphere, coupled with this year’s spring drought, summer floods, and possibly cloudy days and light rains after autumn. Then the situation of warm in the south and freezing in the north will become more prominent in winter.

The climate of this earth has changed greatly. The hot season is still very high, and the cold season is still as warm as spring. The temperature of the earth is a man-made variable, so the sky is always changing. It is levying punishment on human beings and using the frequent occurrence of various natural disasters to disrupt the normal production, life and living environment of the world. It can be seen how important it is to protect the natural environment. That is everyone's responsibility to protect the natural environment.

Will 2020 be a warm winter or a cold winter? This is meteorological knowledge. As a farmer who does not understand meteorological knowledge, I like to judge climate changes based on experience.

I have been in the street stall business (setting up stalls on town streets) for more than ten years, so I have to always pay attention to weather changes so that I can close my stall in time and prevent the stalls from being exposed to the rain. My predictions are generally quite accurate.

Once, I saw a few black clouds appearing in the southwest sky, so I told the nearby stall: "The rainstorm will arrive in half an hour, so hurry up and prepare to close the stall!" The nearby stall owner looked at the sky and said: " The sun is shining, so where can the rain come from? "The result was that 31 minutes after I spoke, heavy raindrops began to fall. This incident became a legend in our streets.

We have a saying here: "Summer floods, autumn floods, winter cold." This summer, floods are everywhere. Especially in central and southern China, which has suffered unprecedented floods in a century, based on my past experience, this year’s winter will be colder than the winters in recent years (comparatively speaking). However, due to the greenhouse effect and global warming, the so-called coldness this year cannot be compared with that of 30 years ago. Compared with the past ten years, it may be the coldest year, and there may be several heavy snowfalls.

The dog days of summer are not hot, and the days of winter are not cold.

Personally, judging from the temperature conditions in Xiamen this year, Xiamen will have a warm winter this year.

First of all, as a garden city on the sea, Xiamen’s winter is just like spring. The lowest temperature is generally 10°C above zero. In Xiamen’s winter, the outdoors is full of red flowers and green grass. You can still see it in winter. When the bees come out to collect honey. There are really only two seasons in Xiamen: spring and summer.

However, according to Xiamen’s weather conditions this summer, 2020 is an extremely high temperature year. This year’s high temperature in Xiamen has set many new records. For example, before 2020, Xiamen’s high temperature in a year The number of recorded days (when the temperature exceeds 35°C, Xiamen refers to the temperature at the Dongdu National Weather Station) is 17 days. As of September 5, 2020, there have been 36 hot days in Xiamen this year, more than double the previous record. There is 1 high temperature day in May, 10 high temperature days in June, 14 high temperature days in July, 8 high temperature days in August, and 3 high temperature days in September.

For office workers in big cities, the impact of warm and cold winters is not great, but for people in rural areas, warm winters still have a great impact on crops.

We will wait and see whether 2020 will be a warm winter or a cold winter.

For unknown things, you can make predictions and reserves, but before the time comes, all you can grasp is the present.

Why do you care so much whether the winter of 2020 will be warm or cold? This issue of your self-heating law is not dependent on your will. You will naturally know it when the time comes. Now, what is the point of thinking too much about the future climate and ignoring the beauty of the present?

It should be a cold winter, earlier than in previous years!