Will there be more or fewer tropical cyclones in Guangdong in 2020?

April 2020 has arrived, and our country’s weather conditions may have gradually become “complicated”, because in summer, in addition to the high temperatures we often talk about, there are also problems such as drought, heavy rainfall, and storms. development, and before talking about climate change in our country, let’s first take a look at the exponential development of marine monitoring El Niño phenomena.

According to the latest monitoring data, one of the current El Niño index areas is still in a relatively high mode, above +0.4 degrees, while still hovering on the edge of +0.5 degrees, so this directly tells One of the changes in our ocean area is that the warmer trend is relatively obvious. Of course, we are still not sure whether the El Niño phenomenon will occur this year, but the controversy has always existed. We will observe it later. When talking about this index, we mainly talk about the issue of a tropical cyclone in some areas of my country.

According to the tropical cyclone monitoring in the northwest Pacific region in 2019, a total of 29 typhoons have appeared, and 2020 has already been three months. Although many typhoon embryos have appeared, coding It has reached 93W, but no typhoon has appeared, so the impact must be non-existent. What we want to talk about next is the development of a tropical cyclone in Guangdong.

According to experts, it is expected that there may be relatively few cyclones affecting Guangdong this year. The preliminary estimate is that there will be 4-5 tropical cyclones that will land or seriously affect Guangdong, which is normal or abnormal. Few (5.3 in the same period), so the maximum is 5 cyclones. Among them, the initial stage is normal or slightly late, the final stage is normal, and 1-2 of them may be stronger.

So experts say it may be normal or low, but from our point of view, a maximum of five cyclones is still a lot. Even if it is a cyclone, its destructive power may not be low, let alone the amount predicted by experts, so everyone should be prepared in advance. As we can see from the monitoring area of ​​​​the El Niño index, in fact, the main zone of ocean temperature is still On the warmer side.

So what is the next development in the northwest Pacific? The El Niño monitoring area must be observed more. This is a rough explanation of the situation. Now we have not seen the formation and impact of typhoons. This is also a good idea. news, but the most worrying thing is the later development, because concentrated typhoon outbreaks may occur almost every year, which requires attention.

This is a trend of cyclones in Guangdong. Experts overall predict that there will be 4-5 tropical cyclones that will land or seriously affect Guangdong, that is, a maximum of 5. The rainfall problem in Guangdong may also be relatively serious in 2020. According to water conservancy experts, some small and medium-sized rivers in Guangdong may experience major floods this year, which will occur once in 20 to 50 years. Local droughts and floods coexist, and the flood and drought disaster prevention situation is severe. Be sure to prepare for floods as early as possible. That is to say, there may be a lot of rainfall in some areas, and the drought situation in some areas may be severe. It can be regarded as an unevenly distributed pattern. This is a trend development, but today's rainfall is also more obvious in Guangdong. Let's take a rough look. Condition.

The first thing I want to say is that the flood season in Guangdong this year is earlier than in previous years, and it has already experienced two rounds of heavy rainfall in March. Among them, from March 26 to 28, affected by the heavy rainfall, the Xijiang tributaries were flooded. Suijiang and Lianjiang, tributaries of Jiangsu and Beijiang rivers, had super-alert water levels at seven stations.

During the period from April 2 to April 5, Guangdong was also the center of heavy rainfall. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory’s rainfall during this period, Guangdong’s cumulative rainfall almost reached In terms of the rainfall of heavy rain or heavy rain, the range of 50 mm to 100 mm is very wide, and the range of 100 mm to 250 mm is also very large. Therefore, the next rainfall trend in Guangdong is relatively strong. Everyone should be prepared in advance. At the same time, some The area is also accompanied by severe convective weather such as thunderstorms and short-term heavy rainfall.

So pay attention to extreme weather changes. At least judging from this cumulative rainfall forecast, the rainfall in Guangdong is still relatively severe. At the same time, nationwide, "major floods" are also expected to occur this year (2020). Major floods may occur in parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Xijiang River and the Haihe River in the Pearl River Basin, and in the Songhua River and Zhejiang and Fujian regions. Regional heavy rains and floods may occur in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, Huaihe River, Liaohe River, including Taihu Lake. These are some areas clearly pointed out by the official. Check to see if your hometown is nearby. Just pay more attention.