Why is the price of 1 garlic mung bean extremely high? 2 forecast the trend of wheat price this year!
China has had a bumper harvest for five or six years in a row, and the situation of grain supply and demand has been continuously improved. In recent years, food supply exceeds demand, so the surplus between supply and demand has been improving. Therefore, the rise in food prices is not caused by problems in the relationship between supply and demand. In my opinion, the rise in food prices is mainly caused by the rise in cost prices, involving land prices, labor prices, production materials prices and so on.
In recent years, the prices of means of production have risen rapidly, and the prices of agricultural means of production such as pesticides and fertilizers have risen faster than the prices of grain.
With the development of China's economy, the demand for rural labor force in the whole domestic market has expanded in both demand and demand. In other words, under the condition of a certain labor supply, the labor price has been boosted after the expansion of labor demand. Moreover, with the development of economy, the government should also let workers participate and enjoy the benefits brought by economic development. Therefore, I expect that the recent national policy is to increase the remuneration of the labor force, which will also drive up the labor price.
Land price With the development of economy, the demand for land is increasing, so this aspect also promotes the price of land resources. In other words, if the same piece of land is not used to produce food, it will be used for other purposes, such as planting cash crops, even building fish ponds, or for non-productive purposes. Because of competition, land prices will rise. In other words, the same piece of land, not the price of agriculture, may not be lower than the price of agriculture, but certainly higher than the price of agriculture. Our country has a large population and a small population. In order to ensure food security, the state has taken a series of measures to ensure the safety of supply and demand from both production and market. Production should stimulate agricultural production more and arouse farmers' enthusiasm for grain production; On the market side, various measures, planning and regulation have been taken to rationalize the profit distribution in the agricultural product market.
Hot money speculation, mung beans, garlic, ginger, the price increase of these products is mainly caused by these factors.
First, the prices of these products were relatively low in previous years, and the information feedback to the farmer prompted him to shrink the production of these products. Everyone is shrinking at the same time, resulting in a large increase in the second year's output, a decrease in supply, and a natural increase in prices. Feedback to the next year, farmers get this information, think this is profitable, and then expand production. This kind of expansion behavior is also what everyone is doing. If the information is accurate, the government can provide accurate information about the market capacity. According to this information, farmers can master the market capacity and decide their own production behavior. According to the principle of rational behavior, there will be fluctuations. But if the information is asymmetric, it will aggravate the amplitude of this fluctuation. This is the result of information.
Secondly, in the past two years, due to the impact of natural disasters, the output of these agricultural products is also quite severe. But even if production is reduced, supply is shrinking and prices are rising, it will not be enough to reach the present situation, and the intensity will not be so great. A large part of this is the role played by hot money. The producing areas of these products are relatively concentrated, such as mung beans mainly in several provinces (regions) such as Inner Mongolia, and ginger and garlic in some places such as Shandong. The production volume is relatively concentrated and the production scope is not very large, which creates good conditions for the oligopoly of hot money. Raising funds is enough to control the relationship between supply and demand in these markets.
Moreover, because these products are minority products and do not involve the national economy and people's livelihood, the government's supervision and attention to these products is not very strong. Farmers only get information from the market after selling their products. The supply and demand of agricultural products such as mung bean, ginger and garlic are different from the market supply and demand of bulk products such as grain (soybean, wheat and corn). In the context of perfect competition, the price is completely determined by the relationship between supply and demand. For the demand side, if the demand is more popular, it will form a strong demand. Mung beans, garlic and ginger are related to the needs of thousands of households, and the demand is uncontrollable. On the supply side, there is such control ability. It controls those producing areas, not necessarily 100%. As long as most of them are controlled, the purpose of domination is achieved. There are several oligarchs on the supply and demand side, and the demand side involves the needs of thousands of households, which has formed this situation and has the ability to pull the price to the monopoly balance point.
The signal of rising food prices at home and abroad continues:
In the first half of this year, the wheat producing areas in eastern Europe suffered from high temperature and drought; Severe floods occurred in northwestern Pakistan; Affected by locusts in Australia and floods in Canada, some grain producing areas in the world have reduced production. In addition, according to the position report issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the capital inflow of wheat is more significant, while the net capital inflow of agricultural products such as beans and corn also appears, which shows that the speculative factors of international speculative capital are intensifying. The above factors have led to the skyrocketing international food prices.
Natural disasters occurred frequently in China this year, and a large area of drought in the first half of the year seriously affected grain production. The high temperature and rainy weather since the summer has adversely affected the storage, transportation and sales of grain, especially the once-in-a-century flood disaster in Jilin, a major grain-producing province, which has become a foregone conclusion and will affect the trend of domestic food prices.
At the same time, due to the impact of rising international food prices, domestic price expectations are also rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Now is the acquisition period of early indica rice, but the acquisition in grain depot area is slower than in previous years, and farmers do not buy early indica rice at the current acquisition price. Because farmers insist on waiting for grain, the pressure of rising prices in the domestic grain market is also increasing.
Since July, domestic food prices have continued to rise. According to the price monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in July, the purchase price of grain in the main producing areas and the retail price of grain in 36 large and medium-sized cities rose steadily and slightly. The average purchase price of red wheat, white wheat and mixed wheat in the main producing areas is 98.66 yuan per 50 kg (the same below), up1.21%from last month; The average purchase price of early indica rice, late indica rice and japonica rice was 109.32 yuan, up by 0.44%. The average purchase price of corn was 9 1.8 1 yuan, up 1.98% from last month.
China does not have the conditions for a sharp rise in food prices;
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sown area of grain in 20 10/0946 million hectares, an increase of 470,000 hectares compared with 2009, maintained a sustained growth trend. At the same time, in recent years, the state has continuously increased investment in farmland water conservancy infrastructure construction, scientific and technological services and pest control.
Since 2003, China's grain output has increased year after year, and the expansion of grain planting area and the improvement of yield level have supported the improvement of total grain output. In 2009, the country's total grain output reached 530.8 billion kilograms, an increase of 2,654.38 billion kilograms over the previous year, which was the first time in nearly 40 years that the output increased for six consecutive years. The improvement of grain production capacity ensures the basic supply of grain in China. Generally speaking, China is "not short of food", which is the basic premise of stabilizing domestic food prices.
As for farmers' reluctance to sell and hot money speculation, food products do not have the characteristics of relatively concentrated production areas, easy storage and easy acquisition control of small agricultural products such as garlic and mung beans, and hoarding speculation can be regarded as a short-term behavior. Therefore, with the support of grain production capacity, we don't have to worry too much about the sharp fluctuation of food prices caused by frequent new situations this year.
In addition, China's overall food dependence on foreign countries is not high. For a long time, food consumption has been through domestic supply, and the impact of rising international food prices on domestic food prices is not obvious.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in the first half of this year, China imported 845,000 tons of wheat, but this figure was very small compared with the annual wheat output of1.1100 million tons. Therefore, our wheat market can be self-sufficient and will not be impacted by external factors. In addition, our food import channels are diversified. We import more from the United States, Canada and Australia and less from Russia, so we will not be influenced by Russia.
Recently, Xu Xiaoqing, deputy director of the Rural Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that China's wheat and other crops are basically not dependent on imports, and China has abundant grain reserves, which can withstand the food crisis. China's success in surviving the 2007 world food crisis is a typical example. International grain import and export and price fluctuation are normal phenomena, so we should not pay too much attention to them.