1 1.24 the conjecture of the plunge.
13 years ago, China Construction Bank and Morgan Stanley established a joint venture investment bank-CICC. From the day it was founded, this behemoth gathered a group of "economists" who sneaked back from the other side of the ocean and sent a large number of the country's core assets to Wall Street for sale at a low price. Especially since 2004, it has been non-stop and intensive.
Why do you want to sell domestic products cheaply?
Lack of money? China also has a capital market, and China is one of the few countries with high savings rate in the world. Isn't it a good policy to turn national savings into capital that can be multiplied? If the people of China have the same blessings as the American people, China Petroleum 1.3 1 yuan/share, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 1. 16 yuan/share, Bank of China 1.22 yuan/share, China Construction Bank 0.94 Hong Kong dollars/share ...
"Improve the corporate governance structure"? This kind of deception is really low. Theoretically, they show that traditional state-owned enterprises lack motivation and are inefficient. Selling shares to foreigners and letting foreigners participate in management can force managers of state-owned enterprises to strengthen enterprise management and improve economic benefits from the perspective of maximizing the interests of foreign shareholders.
However, don't ordinary people in China want to improve the efficiency of their listed companies? However, for the domestic people's enthusiasm for democratic participation in micro-enterprise management, the management has repeatedly suppressed and ruthlessly deprived small and medium-sized investors of their right to participate in enterprise management, allowing enterprise managers to monopolize and run amok, and constantly emptying enterprises. So how is the reason for "improving corporate governance structure" established?
So how to explain the seemingly stupid behavior of buying domestic products at low prices? Only privatization!
China Petroleum, like other state-owned enterprises, is issued in the United States as follows: first, a certain share of China Petroleum is handed over to an intermediary company named "Hong Kong (Central Clearing) Agency Co., Ltd." under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for safekeeping, and then Hong Kong (Central Clearing) Agency Co., Ltd. notifies a depositary bank associated with the United States to issue depositary receipts representing this share in the United States and conduct transactions on the American stock exchange or over-the-counter market.
As we all know, there is no primary market and secondary market in the American market, and there is no need to shake the number. The market price is the issue price. The United States has a market maker system, and stock prices are high and low, and large institutions can legally manipulate them. Things that fell below the issue price on the day of listing abound. In fact, after China Petroleum went public in the United States in 2000, its share price was in a long-term downturn. From 2000 to the end of 2002, the price of each depositary receipt has been hovering between 10.5 USD and 16 USD. An American depositary receipt is equivalent to our first hand, equal to 100 shares, and the corresponding RMB share price is: 0.84 yuan/share-1.28 yuan/share; We don't know who are the depository banks and market makers of China Petroleum in the United States, but what is certain is that they definitely belong to "strategic partners" such as Morgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs who have made waves in China in recent years.
China Petroleum raised $2.9 billion, listed in the United States for four years, and issued shares11900 million. In other words, the price-earnings ratio of these stocks is only 1 times, so you don't have to watch the rise and fall of the secondary market with trepidation, and the annual return on investment is 100%!
So who bought such gold shares? Are they all "the American people are the first to enjoy the fruits of China's enterprise reform"? We know that a group of people in China have long been in line with international standards. For example, Chen Xiaoying, the "Hong Kong businessman" who caused Wu Jianping, director of the State Bureau of Technical and Quality Supervision, to commit suicide, was a native of China. He went abroad in 1980s, and later came back as a "Hong Kong businessman", and his business became "foreign capital". Then gold stocks like China Petroleum are not "some China people and some".
If I can master the profit formation and distribution of China oil, I will share the reform results with Americans!
However, I can't. So who can? The core economic power at that time.
China Petroleum is not so much an enterprise as a yamen. Appointed by superior officials, monopolized by market policies, concluded by price countries, and increased or decreased by tax governments ... It can be said that those in power can't make money if they want to, but earn as much as they want; On the other hand, you can lose as much as you want, and you can't lose without losing!
Moreover, the profit distribution is not determined by the vivid chairman and general manager on the table. This is a central enterprise and a directly managed enterprise.
So even if China people and Americans share the fruits of state-owned enterprise reform, what does it have to do with privatization?
First, establish a price reference system.
People who buy these stocks at the price of 0.84- 1.28 yuan/share are definitely "value investments". If a few people and institutions hold a large amount for a long time, then the market price can be artificially controlled. The low price in the American market is equivalent to setting a price reference system for the domestic A-share market, which provides a basis for the A-share market to "return to value" from the gentleman's expected price.
On August 29th, the price of China Petroleum Depositary Receipts was US$ 65,438+029, equivalent to RMB 8.77 per share, less than 30% of the price of A shares. What is even more frightening is that the "complex international and domestic situation" is changing. On that day, the profit of China Petroleum was "manually adjusted" to a terrible state, and the price in the US market returned to 1 RMB or even lower. Where will the A-share price "return"?
Second, the same shares have the same rights. No matter how low the price is, the shares obtained in the American market have the same rights as those obtained in the expensive domestic market. To put it bluntly, simply adding A shares, H shares and American Depositary Receipts held by the same controller can gain control over listed companies.
Second, the second step of full privatization-share reform.
A pure state-owned enterprise, China Ping 'an, has transformed itself into a foreign-owned and private-owned enterprise through the dazzling shareholding system reform. This is a quiet privatization.
But after all, peace is a local state-owned enterprise in a corner, and it also plays a role in the national economy. Several buddies sat down to sign and stamp, and quietly left in private.
However, if giant enterprises such as China Petroleum and China Industrial and Commercial Bank are so "privately owned", Jiangshan may be in danger of tottering.
Under the circumstance that the management is surrounded by a group of fashionable "economists", you won't find it a wonderful idea to let the people raise the banner of marketization and solve this problem in an all-round way "fairly, justly and openly".
As a result, the stock changed to black powder.
State-owned shares and legal person shares formed by arbitrary power rather than market competition mechanism are not listed and circulated, which is not only the institutional commitment of the state to investors at the beginning of the establishment of the capital market, but also the economic basis to ensure the socialist nature of "public ownership as the main body" in the Constitution.
However, in 2005, the management suddenly turned against each other, saying that marketization made those who earned the scale of Jinshan and Hai Yin by circling money and "capital operation" "pay the price". So, Chichiwa, who bought tickets with gold ingots, and Wang Sun, who bought tickets with copper coins, all boarded the same boat in the stock market.
This not only means that the powerful class openly deprives the civilian class of the largest wealth in broad daylight, but also means that theoretically all enterprises can be owned by money and market transactions.
This is a blatant violation of the constitution by the management. Article 6 of the Constitution clearly stipulates: "In the primary stage of socialism, the state adheres to the basic economic system in which public ownership is the mainstay and various forms of ownership develop together."
Qualitative "public ownership as the main body" requires quantitative state control of how many large enterprises and the majority equity of large enterprises can be realized.
However, after searching all the documents and regulations related to the share reform, there is no provision to quantify the "right and wrong" mastered by SASAC, large and small. Even Mr. Li Rongrong, the "boss" of China people, is just like a charlatan, bluffing a few words about "SASAC will contribute to the stock market" and never promising to "hold shares undiminished".
What does this mean?
They want to sell!
Third, the third step of full privatization-golden decade
The share reform has solved the problem of "how to privatize", while "golden decade" has solved the problem of who these enterprises are sold to.
China stock market is recognized as a "policy city". To put it bluntly, the rise and fall of the stock market is a monetary phenomenon of high-level regulation. It is concluded that the formation of China bull market depends on "high-level nodding, banks releasing water, bankers booing, and supervision playing dumb".
Privatization is a national strategic issue, so people can't guess the timing of choosing share reform. A group of well-educated "economists" who "serve the people wholeheartedly" must try their best to think hard: not only to sell, but also to let everyone happily help count the banknotes.
2005 is a good day to win without fighting!
At this time, from the market level, the bear has been in the mood for 5 years; Economically, the speed of 10% has been continuous year after year; From a technical point of view, chips are still scarce during the three-year lock-up period; Psychologically, the Olympic Games is just around the corner, which is fascinating. ...
A good time to pull up and throw away!
Therefore, under the expectation that the chips will increase by 2 times, the China stock market can magically soar by 6 times! China, it's unique!
What are the parts of golden decade?
1, accounting system reform.
After the reform of the accounting system, the reorganization can be profitable: st Langsha, on September 30, 2006, had net assets -9.4 yuan/share, undistributed profits-13 yuan/share. After the reorganization, on June 30, 2007, the net assets magically became 1.34 yuan/share, and the profit even reached 5.6544.
After the reform of the accounting system, the stock can soar: the double needles of toothpaste can soar to sky-high prices in 67 yuan; The safety of selling insurance can have the "value" of 149 yuan; Jilin Aodong, who is doing medicine, can actually run to the peak of 130 yuan. ...
After the reform of the accounting system, the benefits that the real estate bubble can bring: Lujiazui, Suzhou Hi-Tech, Nanjing Hi-Tech, Waigaoqiao, New Huangpu ... have nothing to do, house prices have gone up, land prices have gone up, assets have suddenly expanded, and the value has naturally gone up.
Is our management dishonest, fearful and uneasy about the bubble? But they use the system to "turn decay into magic" and superimpose bubbles to create bigger bubbles.
2. The extraordinary development of institutional investors. It is said that funds belong to financial experts to guard against risks and stabilize the market ... In short, Public Offering of Fund is as beautiful as flowers and pure as jade, advocated by the state, called by the government and controlled by the media.
In just a few years, the wealth of 3 trillion people has been concentrated. Where is it concentrated? Concentrated in the hands of fund companies under the command of the government.
Hong Xiuquan wanted to win the world and rebelled with a pile of mud legs; Zeng Guofan wanted to be a loyal minister and organized the Xiang army to suppress it. Who is Xiang Jun? Another pile of mud legs. Zeng Guofan will not send his children and grandchildren to the battlefield. Bullying mud legs with mud legs can win or lose, but it won't hurt a hair. For thousands of years, China's ruling pattern has come down in one continuous line.
As a result, the "mud legs" scrambled to build arhats, which dwarfed other gentlemen enjoying themselves on the mountain. ..
These "Xiang Army" pyramid-shaped arhats are not afraid to pierce the sky, but also dare to dig holes to penetrate the earth. The gentleman calmly takes down the arhat and says that he will smash it-it is also a feast for the eyes to plug the loopholes with other people's children and bodies.
Therefore, the wealth of the people in the world will be pooled to form a capital force that can effectively implement the will of those in power, let it be dragged and crushed, make the "policy" more accurate and efficient, and make the profits of interest groups in the capital market more crazy and handy. This is the actual effect of developing institutional investors in an unconventional way.
3. Blue chip riots. Global stock market, blue-chip market is the mainstay of stabilizing the market. But in China stock market, there was a "blue chip riot" from July to June last year 10. China Aluminum rose from 20 to 60 in more than a month, China Ping 'an rose from 50 yuan to 150, and Kweichow Moutai rose from 140 to 300. ...
China investors are hateful because they often create "bubbles". But this time, the China stock market was pulled up from 3,500 points to 6 140 points. "I really didn't do it!" !
Then who did it? Funds, other national institutional investors, this has been made public.
Who else is involved?
As we know, at the beginning of the reform and opening up, the price was "dual-track", officials were dismissed, real estate development was booming in the medium term, and land speculation made many people in China "rich". After 998 in 2005 to 4300 on May 30, 2007, this part of the funds has doubled.
This part of the funds is huge, and there must be matching stocks in and out. Only big blue chips can further effectively consume people's Olympic expectations and golden decade dreams.
As a result, blue-chip stocks rioted!
4, value investment, property income, to prevent ups and downs.
A national strategy must have a national strategy.
State-level policy propaganda, state-level policy commitment, and state-level goal hints make the hesitant little people turn around and rush in and take over the stocks handed over by gentlemen with longing; Ordinary people who are ready to escape turn around and safely lock their stocks in the safe. "Let Comrade Lenin go first" and stand guard on the top of the high mountain!
The magnificent "golden decade" has strengthened the capital strength for people who are ready to participate in the great privatization process.
So, who will the decision-makers sell the huge state-owned assets in the stock market to?
In this ridiculous "golden decade" folly, those who benefit the most are those people!