Is the 2020 winter warning true?

Not sure.

Since 2020, we all know that there was a "weak El Niño phenomenon" at the beginning of the year, which had a very obvious impact on our country. But it ended after May, and according to new information released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the probability of La Nina occurring this year has increased to 70%, which is about three times the normal probability.

2020 will also form a pattern of "co-occurrence" of El Niño and La Niña phenomena. Let's take a look at the instructions released by the Australian Meteorological Bureau, which also said that the probability has increased to 70%, which is higher than the probability previously announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA.

Extended information:

According to experts, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are now falling and the intensity of Pacific trade winds is increasing, indicating an increase in the incidence of La Niña. When these two changes occur simultaneously, the chances of La Niña forming and lasting through spring are greatly increased.

At the same time, according to climate model data, there may be further cooling in the next few months, so it is completely correct to change the "La Nina Watch" issued on June 26 to a "La Nina Warning". Therefore, the La Niña phenomenon in 2020 will likely have a very large impact. Of course, based on our analysis based on data from NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Australian Meteorological Bureau, it is true that the La Niña phenomenon in 2020 is basically imminent. Under normal circumstances, everyone thinks that the El Niño phenomenon and the La Niña phenomenon occur once each other.

However, it needs to be reminded that this rule is no longer there. In 2019, the El Niño phenomenon appeared, and in 2020, the Time has also come up, so it doesn't always keep looping with each other, this is the general situation.

Reference material: People's Daily Online - Many places across the country have received the latest cold wave warning in the past decade