Prediction of glutinous rice market in 2022 (is it expected that the price of glutinous rice will rise? )
Prediction of glutinous rice price in 2022
At the beginning of the domestic epidemic in 2020, glutinous rice rose to a historical high of more than 2 yuan/kg for the first time, and huge benefits drove all localities to expand the planting area of glutinous rice.
Especially in Northeast China, taking Jiansanjiang as an example. According to incomplete statistics, the whole planting area of glutinous rice in Sanjiang in 20 19 was only about 300,000 mu. In 2020, it will be about 1.5 million mu, but this year, it will be 202 1, and this figure will rise to an astonishing nearly 3 million mu, far exceeding 20 18.
Under the background of supply exceeding demand, from the middle and late of 10 to the beginning of 10, some traders began to stock up due to the domestic epidemic and the listing price of glutinous rice hit a low of 20 18 this year.
Therefore, the price of glutinous rice rose briefly, but after that, the purchase and sale of glutinous rice began to weaken and the price began to fall all the way.
Based on various market conditions, the glutinous rice market may continue to rise in 2022. However, the overall price of glutinous rice is relatively low, with occasional slight increase, but the increase is also very limited. (only from the analysis point of view, the actual local market situation shall prevail)
Current price situation of glutinous rice
By the end of 65438+February 24th, the ex-factory price of japonica rice in Sanjiang and Jiamusi in Northeast China had dropped to 1.65- 1.7 yuan/kg, and the logistics gradually eased. The ex-factory price of japonica rice and glutinous rice is 1. 15 yuan/kg, priced according to quality, compared with 1.5 in the same period last year.
The mainstream ex-factory price of Anhui japonica rice and glutinous rice is 1.88- 1.93 yuan/kg, and the mainstream ex-factory price of dry japonica rice and glutinous rice is 1.4 yuan/kg. The price is determined by quality.
At present, the sale of glutinous rice by local farmers in southern Anhui and Jiangsu has basically ended, and most of the grain sources are concentrated in drying factories, processing enterprises and traders.
Local farmers in northern Anhui sell 20-30% glutinous rice, and processing enterprises mainly sell it while collecting it; Glutinous rice in the east of Jiamusi in Northeast China was affected by early snowfall and epidemic prevention and control.
For some time, the transportation of glutinous rice has been seriously hindered. At present, farmers sell 30-40% of their grain. Due to the substantial increase in planting area and large output base in Northeast China this year, the situation of overstocked grain sources is even more severe.
Analysis on the current low demand trend of glutinous rice market
At present, the demand of glutinous rice market is obviously depressed, and the influencing factors are mainly based on the following two aspects:
1, COVID-19 influence
Influence of normalization of epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19. China is a major producer and consumer of glutinous rice, which is mainly used to make zongzi, eight-treasure porridge and various desserts.
2. International environmental impact
Secondly, glutinous rice is also the main raw material for brewing mash. Due to the prevention and control measures of COVID-19 epidemic in China, the market demand for glutinous rice products has dropped significantly.
3. Psychological expectation
Psychological expectation that supply exceeds demand. Under the market expectation of obvious oversupply, the glutinous rice industry chain has reduced bulk purchases from top to bottom, with a strong wait-and-see attitude of selling and receiving, and low inventory operation has become the norm.