Is it OK to plant sorghum in 2022 (on the price forecast of sorghum in 2022)
Sorghum is not only an important food crop in China, but also an important raw material for traditional brewing industry, feed processing industry, renewable energy industry and health food industry in China.
Prospects of Sorghum Planting in 2022
It is possible to plant sorghum in 2022. Compared with rice, corn and soybean, sorghum is a low-yield crop. Sorghum is not like rice, corn, soybeans and so on. The country has bought it at the bottom.
There is no need to worry that there will be no market for corn as a staple food after it is planted, and the country will have a guaranteed purchase. So what are the factors that affect the market price of sorghum in 2022?
Sorghum planting area
In recent years, with the increasing demand of domestic consumers for sorghum, the planting area of sorghum has been expanding, from 470,000 hectares in 2065,438+06 to 6,654,380 hectares in 2065,438+08. 202 1, affected by the high price of sorghum, it is estimated that the planting area of sorghum will reach 840,000 hectares.
It is understood that the income of sorghum planting in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia and Jianping, Liaoning Province is not as good as that of corn and millet. It is estimated that the theoretical planting income of red sorghum in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia is 6 10 yuan/mu, down 36.32% year-on-year. Affected by this, the sorghum planting area will be less than 202 1 year in 2022.
But in 202 1/22, the yield of waxy sorghum coarse grains is better, and Liaoning and Chifeng, Inner Mongolia will increase the planting area of waxy sorghum. It is estimated that the area planted with sorghum will decrease by 4.76% to 800,000 hectares in 2022.
Sorghum yield
In 20 18, China's sorghum output reached 2,909,400 tons, an increase of 18.03% compared with 2,464,900 tons in 20 17. China Commercial Industry Research Institute predicts that the total sorghum output will reach 4.08 million tons in 20021year, up by 17% year-on-year.
On the one hand, the continuous dry weather during the growing period leads to a decline in output, an increase in sorghum prices and an increase in farmers' planting income. During the spring sowing period of 202 1, farmers were more active in seed preparation and planting, which replaced the planting area of mung bean and millet.
On the other hand, at 202 1, the rainfall was normal during the sowing and emergence of sorghum in the main producing areas of Northeast China and North China, and the emergence rate was over 90%, so the soil moisture was good.
During the growing period, there was abundant rain, and the yield of red sorghum in Baicheng, Jilin and Xing 'an League, Inner Mongolia increased. Large-scale planting of waxy sorghum base has increased the yield, with the national average yield reaching 808 kg/mu, with an increase of 33. 1 1% year-on-year.
Downstream application market of sorghum
The downstream of sorghum in China is mainly divided into seed and edible, brewing and feed industries. Among them, the consumption in feed field is the most, accounting for 75.5%; Followed by food consumption, accounting for12.6%; Sorghum for brewing is only 10.8%.
In recent years, the research on deep processing of sorghum at home and abroad has developed rapidly. In addition to the traditional uses as staple food, brewing liquor, beer and feed, various processing uses of sorghum are also being explored.
For example, sweet sorghum stalks are used to make wine, forage sorghum is used to make silage and green fodder, and sorghum is used to produce alcohol. Using sorghum shell to extract pigment and sorghum seed to extract starch to produce sorghum bread, sorghum snacks and so on, the prospect of sorghum deep processing is getting better and better.