Price reduction tide! The adjustment of soybean meal has changed, the price of wheat and eggs is weak, and the price of pigs and sheep is low! What happened?
Soybean meal market:
In the last week, the domestic soybean meal market began to pull back. The price quoted by some oil plants dropped to 500~700 yuan/ton, and the price of soybean meal dropped sharply. The fundamental reason is that after the end of June 165438+ 10, the scale of domestic soybean imports gradually increased, the operating rate of coastal oil plants increased, and the market's expectation of tight soybean meal supply gradually decreased!
However, the soybean meal market fell sharply in the short term, and the downward performance of the market gradually weakened. According to institutional data analysis, at present, the soybean meal price of mainstream oil plants in Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong coastal areas has dropped to 5080~5250 yuan/ton, and the downward trend of soybean meal shows signs of slowing down!
Personally, on the one hand, although the scale of soybean entering Hong Kong has improved, the current performance of soybean meal inventory is still low, and the performance of feed demand is relatively high. At present, there is just a demand for soybean meal in the market, and the supply gap of soybean meal still exists, which also supports the price to some extent; On the other hand, the import cost of domestic soybeans is high, and the import of soybeans by oil plants is still delayed! Therefore, based on the long-short adjustment of the market, I personally think that the spot price of soybean meal will be sideways 5000 yuan/ton in the short term!
Wheat market:
At present, the domestic wheat market is still stable and weak. However, judging from the quotations of enterprises in wheat producing areas, the wheat admission quotations of grain-using enterprises are still maintained at around 1.6 1~ 1.66 yuan/kg, and the price of wheat shows a situation of great stability and small movement, and some enterprises have reduced prices within a narrow range to collect grain!
According to the analysis of insiders, the supply pressure supporting the high price of wheat is relatively high, the number of enterprises is maintained at a low level, the surplus grain at the grassroots level is reduced, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders for shipment is not high, and the problem of domestic masks restricts the circulation of the wheat market. Frequent precipitation in the producing areas has also disrupted the rhythm of grassroots purchase and sale. Therefore, the supply is less, supporting the high price of wheat!
However, due to the recent decline in international food prices, the international wheat price has dropped by about 45% compared with the high point of the year, and the bullish sentiment in the domestic market has weakened. However, the delivery of downstream flour is slow, and it is difficult to significantly boost demand. Some dealers are limited by the problem of masks, and the operating rate of enterprises is low. Flour enterprises have insufficient motivation to raise prices, and the mood of price adjustment on demand is getting stronger. In some enterprises, the delivery of flour is slow, the price of raw grain is high, and the profit rate drops sharply.
Therefore, based on the phased long-short adjustment, due to the difficulty in boosting the downstream flour in the wheat market, the quotation of enterprises will remain weak, and the market will also wait for the benefits from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival!
Egg market:
In the domestic egg market, on June 23rd 165438+, the price of eggs fluctuated greatly, and the market price of production and sales fell within a narrow range. At present, the average price of eggs in the domestic production and marketing market is about 5.45~5.6 yuan/kg!
The key to the weak fluctuation of egg price is that the market supply pressure is not great. Due to the mask problem in some producing areas, it is more difficult to ship eggs in some producing areas, and the egg inventory in some producing areas has increased. On the demand side, at present 1 1 has come to an end, and consumption has entered a trough. Due to the lack of holiday effect factors, the downstream eggs are not shipped smoothly. Recently, pork prices fluctuated, and the performance of egg replacement consumption declined, further supporting.
However, in the short term, it is difficult to significantly increase the egg production capacity, and the inventory performance in all aspects of production and marketing is still tight, while the breeding cost is relatively high, and the bottom support of egg prices still exists. However, with the downward trend of soybean meal market, domestic feed prices may fall recently, which may support the continued weak operation of egg prices!
Pig market:
At present, domestic pig prices have stabilized sideways. 1egg price 1 1.86 yuan/kg on October 23rd, which was more than 16.3% lower than the peak in late October 10. The price of pigs has been constantly searching for the bottom, but the market has bottomed out.
Personally, at present, the pig market is booming, the pork in the market is not smooth at this stage, and the pressure of consumption restraint is still great. There are still surplus commodities in the wholesale market. Without the support of consumption, the mood of price increase is relaxed, some retail pig farms are out of stock, and the supply of pigs and pork is relatively "surplus". In the next 1~2 days, it is still difficult for pig prices to rebound.
However, after the short-term pig price fluctuated sideways, the phenomenon of sporadic bacon production in the southern market gradually increased at the end of the month, and the downstream market just needed pork or would rebound. The slaughterhouse's enthusiasm for purchasing big pigs will rebound, the operating rate will increase obviously, the domestic standard fertilizer price difference will expand again, and the price of big pigs will strengthen, which will also drive the standard pig market to soar. Estimated1end of October to early February, 1 12.
However, with the high price of pigs, the mood of selling pigs on rallies in the market has warmed up, and retail investors, secondary fattening and pig-group enterprises have concentrated on selling pigs. However, due to the high price of pork, the curing income is fleeting, and the weak demand in the market will be countered again. After the middle of 65438+February, the pig price will fluctuate downward and enter the end of 65438+February. Under the support of winter solstice and New Year's Day, the price of pigs will drop.
Fattening sheep market:
Recently, with the decline in the price of live pigs, high-priced pork is obviously loose. At present, the price of pork purchased by residents in many parts of the country has gradually dropped to 20 yuan/Jin. The price of pork in some parts of Northeast China has dropped to about 17 ~ 18 yuan/kg, which also limits the performance of consumption substitution. Due to the high price, the demand for beef and mutton will also drop.
However, due to poor demand, in the breeding market, the price of fattening sheep has also fluctuated recently. Among them, the price of mutton sheep in the mainstream market in Tangxian County, Hebei Province fell to 12.2 ~ 13.4 yuan/kg, which was about 0.7 yuan/kg lower than the previous days, while the price of mutton sheep with bird's nest in Shandong Province remained at 12.4 ~. The price of mutton in Yuncheng, Shanxi Province is around 30 kg in 680 yuan/head, and the price of mutton sheep in Huainan, Anhui Province is around 15.5 yuan/kg.
According to industry analysts, due to the great uncertainty of the consumer market, residents have been significantly affected by the mask problem in recent years, and their income level has dropped significantly. However, the price of mutton is on the high side, and residents' purchasing enthusiasm is biased. Recently, the problem of masks in China continues to ferment, and the catering industry in many places is deserted, and the farmers' market is sparsely populated and the demand is not smooth. For the fattening sheep market, it is still a weak trend! However, after entering the winter solstice solar term, as the temperature drops, the demand gradually improves, and the price may have a strong trend!
Price reduction tide! 165438+1On October 23, the callback of soybean meal was blocked, the prices of wheat and eggs were weak, and the prices of pigs and sheep were low! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!