Provide solutions for real estate marketing with value-added method
Despite the threat of macro-economic and real estate dual regulation policies, our views on the future and investment value of the real estate industry will not be shaken by regulation. On the contrary, the development trend of the industry and macro-control policies give us reason to over-allocate real estate stocks and focus on industry leaders and regional leaders. Vanke A, Poly Real Estate, China Merchants Property, Jindi, OCT A and COFCO Real Estate are undoubtedly our best choices, and regional leaders such as Beicheng Construction, China Enterprises, SIIC Development, Qixia Construction and Fahua Shares are also excellent varieties that we can safely choose. Those enterprises that expand rapidly nationwide through asset injection and overall listing will also become dark horses that bring extraordinary returns to investors.
chance
As the external economy continues to be turbulent, the domestic economic prosperity is inevitably affected. A few months ago, the central bank focused on "controlling inflation", and the recent two consecutive interest rate cuts mean that the government is shifting its focus to "maintaining growth", which also indicates that China has entered the interest rate cut cycle.
The interest rate cut is indeed a substantial benefit to the real estate industry, which can reduce the financial cost of real estate enterprises and is also a manifestation of loose monetary policy, making it easier for real estate enterprises to obtain loans, reducing the burden on buyers and helping to stimulate housing consumption.
Interest rate cuts and local government rescue measures are indeed substantial benefits to the real estate industry. We don't deny this, but we believe that the fundamental reason for this round of real estate adjustment is the high housing prices. At the stage when house prices have just started to adjust, there is still a strong expectation of price reduction. None of these measures can solve this fundamental problem at present.
Judging from the relationship between real estate stocks and the market, the market fundamentals remain unchanged, and the long-term trend of real estate stocks is hard to change.
However, in the current light market, there are "expected staged opportunities" in the market. We pointed out in the strategy report in the fourth quarter that if there is a big adjustment in the real estate market, the expectation that the fundamentals have been adjusted in place will bring a big market. Judging from the current situation, the industry has not yet reached this stage. However, under the background of market downturn and macroeconomic slowdown, the expectation of government regulation and control policies or related macro-policy changes will also bring staged market.
The situation in Hong Kong shows that, driven by policy expectations, real estate stocks have the opportunity to outperform the broader market in the short term, but they need the cooperation of the broader market, and there are fewer opportunities to go against the trend. And once the policy effect disappears, it is expected to reverse, and the decline will even be greater than the broader market. Therefore, it is a prerequisite to grasp the band market and make profits in time.
Judging from the situation in Japan, due to the lack of specific data, it is impossible to examine the impact of policies on the stock market in the short term, but in the long run, continuous interest rate cuts have not prevented land prices from continuing to decline, and real estate stocks outperformed the broader market at the beginning of interest rate cuts. In addition, the cases of 1975- 1976 and 1990 show that the worst time of the industry has not yet arrived at the beginning of interest rate cut, regardless of whether the industry is in the adjustment period or the collapse period, and real estate stocks do not have the basis to outperform the broader market.
The industry will continue to adjust, and economic downside risks will emerge. Whether it is the expectation of the relaxation of industry regulation policies or the expectation of macro policies such as interest rate cuts, there will still be staged opportunities. There will be no feast in the dull market, but it is not without opportunities.
Second, "policy relaxation expectations" will bring staged opportunities.
1998 At the beginning of the year, the housing construction plan of 85,000 yuan softened, and there was a small spring in the real estate market in February and March.
In March, the one-year optimal lending rate was lowered from 10.25% to 10.23%, and further lowered to 10% in April.
Judging from the situation of the stock market, there are indeed staged opportunities.
1In May 1998, the government adopted a series of measures to rescue the market. These measures include: extending the pre-sale period of uncompleted flats from 15 months before completion to 20 months; Exempt from the lottery for luxury houses with a price exceeding120,000 yuan; Temporarily cancel the four measures restricting the resale of uncompleted flats and the speculation of corporate buyers; And simplify the mortgage plan for buying residential buildings, so that banks can know exactly how much liquidity they can get to draw up loan plans.
1June 23, 1998, the government announced nine measures to relieve the people's difficulties, including increasing the "first home loan" from 3.6 billion yuan in the fiscal year of 1998/1999 to 7.2 billion yuan, hoping to increase the number of eligible families from 6,000 to12,000; The number of places to provide "housing loans" increased from 4500 to 10000; Exempt rates in the fourth quarter of that year, and so on. The most striking thing is to stop selling land immediately for 9 months.