Long-term layout of stocks in 2008, when to buy? What to buy?
As of165438+1October 6, 545 listed companies in the two cities have made this year's performance forecast, of which 345 companies have pre-increased, 58 companies have turned losses, 85 companies have pre-lost, and 30 companies have pre-reduced. In addition, due to the uncertainty in the fourth quarter, there are great uncertainties in the annual performance of 27 companies.
In the above forecast, the proportion of "good news" companies such as pre-increase and loss is as high as 73.94%, while the proportion of "bad news" companies such as pre-decrease and loss is only 2 1. 10%. It can be seen that the prosperity of listed companies will remain at a high level this year, and high performance growth is still expected.
Here, the New Express analyzes the basic situation of listed companies' performance surge and the trend of the main funds in and out in detail from the five reasons that caused the listed companies' performance surge this year, so as to provide reference for investors in the layout of stock selection next year.
List of potential stocks with substantial growth in performance this year
personal reasons
Several projects of Hubei Yihua (000422) were put into production in the fourth quarter.
The electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Guan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (00083 1) has been greatly improved.
Ewushang A(00050 1) Wuhan Plaza has become a long-term profit growth point.
The second phase of Yinglite (000635) project is completed, and the future performance growth can be expected.
The two major projects of Fahua Co., Ltd. (600325) have not been settled, and the benefits have been greatly improved.
Industry boom promotion type
Mining, bank real estate and wine making are the best.
With the sharp rise in raw material prices, the upstream mining industry has benefited greatly, and the four listed companies that released annual performance forecasts have all increased significantly in advance, with no pre-loss or pre-loss.
The industry boom is closely followed by the financial and real estate industries. The performance of listed real estate enterprises has increased significantly this year. Of the 24 companies that forecast their performance, 2 1 company increased in advance, 2 companies turned losses, and only 1 company made losses in advance.
In addition, food and beverage, machinery and equipment, steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries still maintain a high degree of industry prosperity.
Driven by strong consumption growth and rising product prices, the prosperity of wine-making industry, viscose fiber plate, brand-name clothing industry, electronic device manufacturing industry and other industries is expected to continue to improve in the fourth quarter of this year, and the profits of related listed companies will also increase substantially.
LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD: Product sales+investment income growth
The consumption tide of New Year's Day and Spring Festival started ahead of schedule, and the liquor industry entered the peak season. LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD (000568) said that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for liquor sales, and leading products such as Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao Tequ are expected to have better sales performance. In terms of investment income, the company will gain an investment income of 89.68 million yuan by transferring the equity of Guotai Junan, and the investment income of Huaxi Securities will be recorded in the fourth quarter according to the proportion of the transferred equity. Based on the above reasons, it is estimated that the cumulative net profit of the company from June 5438+0 to June 5438+02 in 2007 will increase 100%- 150% year-on-year.
Jin Huan, Hubei: The price of viscose has skyrocketed this year.
Since the beginning of this year, with the rising price of viscose fiber products, the viscose fiber plate has also stepped out of a vigorous big market. The production capacity of Jin Huan (0006 15) with more than 30,000 tons is expected to increase by more than 654.38+0 billion yuan after the price of viscose fiber skyrocketed this year. Recently, the company announced that the increase in the price of viscose fiber products, the main product, and the increase in the profit of commercial housing in the second phase of the subsidiary made the company's performance in the fourth quarter increase substantially. It is estimated that the net profit in 2007 will increase by more than 65,438+0.50% year-on-year.
Guangdong Pearl: Iron ore prices have risen sharply.
The price of iron ore continues to rise, which is undoubtedly a big plus for listed companies with iron ore. Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) said that the accumulated net profit from the beginning of the year to the end of the next reporting period will increase by more than 50% compared with the same period of last year due to the sharp increase in the market price of iron ore products in the company's trading business.
Seven wolves: expanding sales network has achieved results
Under the circumstances that the prosperity of textile and garment industry is facing a test, the brand-name garment industry has stepped out of its own unique market. Seven wolves (002029) said that in 2007, it will increase its sales network expansion and product research and development, and it is estimated that its net profit in 2007 will increase by 50%-70% year-on-year. In addition, Magpie (002 154) also said that it expects the net profit in 2007 to increase by about 30%-60% year-on-year.
New capacity drive
There are surprises in the new capacity in the fourth quarter.
In the fourth quarter of this year, stocks with new production capacity were favored by the main players because of their more sustainable performance growth, especially some stocks with poor performance or even losses in the third quarter of 2007. However, the new production capacity in the fourth quarter made the company's performance turn to an inflection point. Next year, high-growth and sustainable stocks are strongly sought after by investment funds and other main forces.
Yihua, Hubei: Several projects were put into production in the fourth quarter.
Hubei Yihua (000422) announced that it expects the net profit in 2007 to increase by more than 65% year-on-year. The reason is that the acquired Hunan Jin Xin Chemical is expected to be put into production in the fourth quarter due to the transformation and expansion in the third quarter; At the same time, the 50,000-ton/year ionic membrane caustic soda project and the 65,438+100,000-ton/year polyvinyl chloride project, which broke ground last year, started smoothly in early 200710 and reached the production standards. 200,000 tons/year calcium carbide project, 200,000 tons of synthetic ammonia project and 600,000 tons of soda ash project were also put into operation at the end of 2007 10.
Yinglite: The second phase of the project will be completed within this year.
The thermoelectric device of Ningxia West PVC Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of Yinglite (000635), is running well, and the PVC production capacity has been expanded from120,000 tons to145,000 tons, and the sales price has risen sharply compared with the same period of last year. It is estimated that the net profit in 2007 will increase by 1 10% year-on-year. In addition, with the end of this year and the full commissioning of the second phase expansion project in 2008, the company's performance growth in the next two years will be further accelerated.
Century Guanghua: Acquisition of Aluminum Company
Century Guanghua (000703) still made a loss in the third quarterly report, but the pre-increased annual report increased by 1000%- 1200% year-on-year. The increase in performance is mainly due to the substantial increase in profits of aluminum company compared with the same period of last year, and the bad debt reserve formed by the acquisition of equity of aluminum company and the transfer of creditor's rights of Chengdu Jinjiang Electric Appliance Manufacturing Co., Ltd.; Among them, the transfer of Jinjiang Electric's creditor's rights has a one-time impact on the company's profits, achieving a current profit and loss of about150,000 yuan.
Wuhan Shangzhong: adding new stores and increasing profits
Wuhan Shangzhong (000785) has rapidly expanded its main business area in recent years, with a total business area of over 550,000 square meters. The company's outlets are distributed in more than 0 cities in the province/kloc-0, with 45 stores. Due to the increase in main business income caused by opening new stores this year and the increase in gross profit margin caused by strengthening internal management compared with the same period of last year, it is estimated that the net profit in 2007 will increase by 65,438+000% to 65,438+050% compared with the same period of last year.
Guan aluminum co., ltd.: electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been greatly improved
The net profit of Guan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (00083 1) increased significantly in the first three quarters compared with the same period of last year. The investment income of Shanxi Huasheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (accounting for 49% of the total shares) established by Guan Aluminum Co., Ltd. increased, and the annual performance is expected to increase by more than 600% year-on-year. In addition, after the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is improved, the company's production capacity of 30,000 tons of aluminum foil and 20,000 tons of aluminum rods is expected to be fully utilized, and the growth rate will be further accelerated in 2008.
Ke Mei shares: asset injection shows vitality.
The non-public offering of Ke Mei (600337) shares in 2007 was completed on June 24th, 2007, and Ke Mei International Furniture Tianjin Manufacturing Co., Ltd. increased the scope of consolidation of the company's accounting statements. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 2007 will increase by more than 200% compared with the same period of last year. Similar stocks include Black Cat (002068) and so on.
Project settlement growth type
Real estate stocks ushered in the peak of year-end settlement.
The agency pointed out that in the environment of RMB appreciation and inflation, the direct result is the rise and expansion of asset prices. As the main carrier of assets, real estate is directly reflected in the rise of house prices, and this trend will continue. In addition, for real estate listed companies, the performance of listed companies whose settlement of some projects peaked in the fourth quarter often experienced explosive growth. (See Schedule 3)
Vanke A: The settlement of projects in the four seasons rose sharply.
Vanke A (000002) 65438+1October 30th announced that due to the good sales situation up to now, the settable resources have increased substantially, and it is estimated that the net profit for the whole year of 2007 will increase by 100% to 150% compared with last year. Researcher Guodu Securities believes that Vanke is still the safest and most growing real estate listed company, and maintains a "strongly recommended" investment rating. At present, the total construction area of the planned project calculated by Vanke's equity is 65,438+0,865,438+0,850,000 square meters, which can meet the needs of steady expansion in 2008 and 2009.
Fahua shares: year-end settlement of two major projects
Fahua Co., Ltd. (600325) 65438+123 October announced that due to the satisfactory progress and pre-sale of the company's real estate projects, the projects that can be carried forward in 2007 are mainly Fahua New Town Phase III and Zhongshan Fahua Ecological Park Phase I. Due to the progress of the project and other reasons, the above two projects will mainly focus on the carry-forward income in the fourth quarter of 2007, and it is estimated that the net profit in 2007 will increase by 65438.
*ST Yidi: the efficiency of putting assets into production is high.
*ST Yidi (000 150) carried out a major asset restructuring, and the controlling shareholder Yihua Group put high-quality assets into the company on September 14. Guangdong Yihua Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. has achieved a net profit of 49.7409 million yuan from June to September this year. It is estimated that the net profit for the whole year of 2007 will be 1. 1 billion to1.200 million yuan.
Tianchen shares: Shanghai project will be settled at the end of the year.
The real estate project of Tianchen Co., Ltd. (600620) in Rose Square, Sichuan North Road, Shanghai entered the settlement period at the end of the year. It is estimated that the annual net profit in 2007 will increase by more than 100%. In addition, the Palm Castle Project 1 and Phase II pre-sold by Shenzhen Sanda A(000032) Real Estate Company will meet the carry-over sales conditions by the end of this year. It is estimated that the annual net profit in 2007 will increase by more than 100%. In the fourth quarter, development projects entered the settlement stage, including Marriott Wanjia (600576), Jin Feng Investment (600606), Poly Real Estate (600048), Shen (000090) and Rong Sheng Development (002 146).
Performance "rebirth" type
Reorganized stocks are a hotbed of dark horses.
Since 2007, China Shipbuilding (600 150) and Dongfang Electric (600875) have risen sharply, which fully demonstrated the charm of capital injection and reorganization of concept stocks. There are indications that the market will deepen in the future around the theme of capital injection and restructuring. Due to the completion of the share-trading reform, the interests of all kinds of shareholders are the same. This fundamental change makes major shareholders have a strong desire to improve the operating performance of listed companies through capital injection and restructuring, thus enhancing the value of equity. (See Annex 4) * Tianjin Tianbao Holdings Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder of ST Tianbao (000965), completed the asset replacement of the company on May 3 this year and injected high-quality real estate companies, promising that the net profit of listed companies in the next three years will not be less than 65.438+0 billion, 65.438+0 billion and 65.438+0.2 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit of 1 billion yuan to 1. 1 billion yuan for the whole year.
Xinhubao (600208) announced on September 14 that the board of directors reviewed and approved the proposal of injecting capital into its six real estate subsidiaries. After the completion of the reorganization, the settlement area and settlement income of each project increased significantly compared with last year. It is estimated that the earnings per share will be above 0.2267 yuan in 2007, and the net profit will increase by 70% to 90% year-on-year.
After the reorganization, Blue Star Petrochemical (000838) has transformed its main business into real estate development and sales. At the end of the reporting period, the company has completed a series of asset restructuring work, such as increasing capital and shares and purchasing assets. It is estimated that the net profit in 2007 will increase by 3,500% to 3,800% year-on-year.