What is the biggest business opportunity in China at present?
The 11th Five-Year Plan has important turning points for China’s future economic development and will outline new development ideas and approaches for China’s economy during the 11th Five-Year Plan. These “new” policies will drive a series of policy changes, and the new orientations of these policies will bring good opportunities to related industries.
Judging from the content of the "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommendations") passed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, the ten During the First Five-Year Plan period, China showed many new highlights and contained new business opportunities in five aspects of development: consumer market, industrial upgrading, independent innovation strategy, regional development, and new rural construction.
The running of the "consumption carriage" implies new business opportunities
The "Recommendations" emphasize that economic growth and people's living standards improve simultaneously, which means that China's economy has experienced export-led and investment-led growth. , during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, we began to focus on strengthening the "third carriage" of economic growth - the driving force of consumption, and began to expand domestic demand as the basic foothold and long-term strategic policy of economic development. Economic growth has gradually shifted from being mainly driven by investment and exports to being driven by both consumption and investment, driven by both domestic and external demand. Consumption is undoubtedly the most important driving force for China's economic growth in the future.
China’s consumer goods market will usher in a new round of comprehensive launch. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's income distribution system is facing a major turning point. Social distribution is tilted towards low- and middle-income groups. The government will not only adjust the structure of national fiscal expenditures from a macro policy perspective, but will also further reduce the gap between rich and poor through tax reform. The increase in group social welfare will significantly increase their consumption capacity, and the poor's higher marginal propensity to consume will accelerate the recovery process of the consumer goods market. The explosive growth in demand for basic consumer goods, the growth in investment and consumption in rural areas in the central, western and northeastern regions, the growth in demand for various fashions from new consumer groups and the middle class, and the accelerated reform process of medical care, education, and elderly care will create a huge domestic consumer market in China. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumption growth rate will increase significantly on the current basis, creating an industrial development cluster with the most competitive advantages and certainty in the country.
Industries related to household consumption will gain rapid development opportunities. The renewal of residents' consumption concepts and the rapid upgrading of consumption structure have promoted the rapid growth of tourism, high-end and high-tech consumer goods, as well as information and international cultural consumption. In the next five years, housing, automobiles, education and tourism will become the focus of Chinese residents' consumption expenditure.
The gradual recovery of the domestic consumer market will provide opportunities for two types of enterprises: First, shark-type enterprises, which continue to acquire and merge to increase industry concentration and achieve "monopolies" in some basic consumer goods, channels, logistics networks and other markets; "; The second is the eagle-type enterprise, which relies on its brand and high-end route to avoid extensive price wars and vicious competition, and obtain excess profits on some quality-sensitive consumer goods, luxury consumer goods, and seasonal consumer goods.
The gradual recovery of the domestic consumer market has brought great development opportunities to the service industry. In the process of comprehensive expansion of economic development focus from east to west, consumption upgrading in large and medium-sized cities will evolve into service upgrading. By then, in addition to consumer services (finance, medical facilities, hotel tourism, etc.) will usher in faster development , productive services (finance, data, design, transportation and other production-related services) will also be launched quickly.
Industrial upgrading implies new business opportunities
The "Recommendations" emphasize that China's economy will gradually transform from the traditional extensive growth mode of high consumption, high pollution and low efficiency to one of low consumption, low emission and high efficiency. Transform from an efficient and intensive growth model to a circular economy based on effective use of resources and environmental protection. It means that China's future industrial development will be resource-saving and environmentally friendly, and will pay more attention to structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, accelerate the development of a low-energy consumption, low-emission economy, and strictly limit high energy consumption, high water consumption, high pollution and waste resource industry development.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, in a new round of industrial structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, the development orientation of the three industries of new energy, environmental protection and equipment will undergo eye-catching changes. The comprehensive utilization of new energy and resources will be encouraged. Policies, environmental protection industry policies, and equipment industry support policies will also be the most eye-catching new trends in industrial policies in the new era. It is foreseeable that new energy, environmental protection, equipment manufacturing, etc. are likely to become key industries supported by the state.
New energy: The "Recommendations" emphasize the creation of a resource-saving society and an environment-friendly society, and follow the path of sustainable development that is economical, clean and safe.
This will put energy conservation and development of new energy on the agenda again. The increase in energy prices and the suppression of energy waste will provide opportunities for products and industries related to energy conservation, new energy, alternative energy and energy development. Investment in solar energy, nuclear energy, wind energy and other industries will be greatly accelerated, and the industry prospects deserve attention.
Environmental protection industry: The environmental protection industry as a whole will face great development opportunities. The circular economy objectively requires resource conservation and environmental protection. Therefore, an increase in the prices of various resources (water, heat, oil, gas) will be an inevitable trend. The development of low-energy-consuming, low-pollution machinery and equipment (including personal consumer goods such as automobiles) will be better. investment opportunities.
Equipment and equipment industry: Changes in the economic growth model will put forward higher requirements for the related equipment industry and put forward new demands for the development of the special equipment industry. In energy conservation, environmental protection, infrastructure construction and national defense and military industries, etc. New equipment in this field will have more preferential policies and development opportunities. Beneficial industries will also include power grid equipment, railway equipment; clean and efficient power generation equipment, offshore oil engineering equipment, CNC machine tools, new textile machinery and other fields.
The independent innovation strategy contains new business opportunities
The "Recommendations" propose that strengthening independent innovation capabilities should be regarded as the strategic basis for the development of science and technology and the central link in adjusting the industrial structure and transforming the growth mode. Improve original innovation capabilities, integrated innovation capabilities, and the ability to introduce, digest, absorb and re-innovate. Establish a technological innovation system with enterprises as the main body, market as the guide, and integrating industry, academia and research, and form a basic institutional structure for independent innovation. Previously, independent innovation was written into the communiqué of the Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for the first time as a national strategy - the Communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee. China’s special emphasis on independent innovation means that independent innovation will be elevated from concept to operational level and deployed and implemented as an important strategy for economic and social development. Independent innovation will become a new strategy for China to become a powerful country. China will set off a wave of independent innovation.
The "Recommendations" clearly state that enterprises are the main body of the technological innovation system, and independent innovation activities of enterprises will become the focus of industrial policy support during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. In the future, enterprises will directly become the main body of research and development, changing the past practice of the government always allocating R&D funds to research institutes of universities and colleges.
China currently has a serious overcapacity problem, and 1/3 of it is the production capacity of backward technology. Using information technology to improve traditional industries is currently the most important task. Advantageous enterprises with technological innovation capabilities, high-end service industries with high knowledge and technology content, modern industries that participate in international competition and have technological comparative advantages in related fields, innovative downstream industries with equipment and components that have import substitution effects, etc., are all It may become a focus of future investment. In industries such as machinery and equipment industry, cement, electrolytic aluminum, etc., which appear to be low-level repetitive constructions, if some companies start to develop independent innovation capabilities or new technologies, they can also bring opportunities. In addition, there is significant room for innovation and progress in fields such as medicine, electronics, and IT, and key investments with strategic and economic significance are worthy of attention.
Regional development implies new business opportunities
The "Recommendations" propose that regional planning, urban planning and land use planning should be coordinated. Clarify the functional positioning of different regions, formulate corresponding policies and evaluation indicators, and gradually form a regional development pattern with unique characteristics. For the first time, China has placed regional planning with the development of economic zones in a prominent and important position, which means that after 26 years of development of the local government-led economic model, China's economic spatial pattern will move toward market-led regional economic development. Taking substantial steps, China has truly begun to move from a provincial economy to a regional economic development stage. Regional economic integration will become one of the pillars driving China's new round of reform and opening up.
Regional planning is a binding spatial plan targeting areas with close economic ties across administrative regions. By coordinating regional economic development, the administrative blockade will be broken and obstacles will be removed for the eventual formation of a unified regional market or even a national unified market. This will create opportunities for cross-regional expansion and development of the industry.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, there will be three new key regional developments worthy of attention:
The first is Tianjin Binhai New Area. The "Recommendations" propose to "promote the development and opening up of areas with better conditions such as Tianjin Binhai New Area and drive regional economic development." It means that the development and opening up of Tianjin Binhai New Area will be included in the overall layout of national development. Tianjin Binhai New Area will become Tianjin's largest economic growth point and a powerful engine for regional economic development, showing huge potential and broad development space.
The second is the west coast of the Taiwan Strait. The "Recommendations" propose to "support the economic development of the west coast of the Taiwan Strait and other areas where Taiwanese business investment is relatively concentrated." "West Coast of the Strait" was written into the "Proposals". This was also the first time that "West Coast of the Straits" was written into a central document and became a highlight of the "Proposals". This means that the status of Fujian, located on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait, in the overall situation has been greatly improved. Supporting the development of the west coast of the Taiwan Strait provides Fujian with a new development opportunity and development platform, which is conducive to promoting cross-strait economic and technological exchanges and cooperation.
The third is the Chengdu-Chongqing region. According to Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, in mid-September, in the national 11th Five-Year Plan, the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Chengdu-Chongqing region and the old industrial bases in Northeast China will become the focus of regional planning. Including the Chengdu-Chongqing region in the 11th Five-Year Plan is obviously an important step in accelerating the development of the western region and coordinating regional development. The Chengdu-Chongqing region will gain good development opportunities.
The construction of new rural areas contains new business opportunities
The "Recommendations" propose that building a new socialist countryside is a major historical task in China's modernization process. This means that China's rural construction has ushered in the third major adjustment since the reform and opening up after the implementation of the household responsibility system in the late 1970s and the rural tax and fee reform in 2003. The new socialist countryside has become China's rural areas in the new era. direction of construction.
Compared with the one-way policies in the past, new rural construction is a systematic and comprehensive policy. The connotation of new countryside itself contains new business opportunities. The connotation of new countryside includes at least five aspects, namely new buildings, new facilities, new environment, new farmers, and new fashions. Among them, "new facilities" means improving infrastructure, including roads, water and electricity, broadcasting, communications, and telecommunications.
To build a new socialist countryside, it is expected that the state will take more new measures to further increase support for agriculture, such as through financial subsidies, urban support and other "external force" methods to solve agricultural problems. Companies with higher agricultural industrialization may have opportunities for rapid development and are worth looking forward to. In addition, by focusing on solving the core issue of farmers' income and vigorously supporting rural development and increasing farmers' income, farmers' income is likely to maintain rapid growth, and the rural consumer market is expected to become a new growth highlight. This will be of great benefit to releasing the remaining production capacity of some industrial industries, and also provides an opportunity and starting point for the transformation to a consumption-based economic growth model.
China proposes that "industry feeds agriculture, and cities support rural areas", which indicates the two leading directions of China's industrial development in the future: First, investment in infrastructure construction, mainly in the central and western regions, northeastern and rural areas, will become The target of key national financial support; second, the issues related to agriculture, rural areas and farmers are crucial to the overall economic situation, which means that agriculture-related manufacturing industry clusters, as well as basic consumption industry clusters related to farmers’ income, will likely gain rapid development opportunities during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. .