Excuse me, why is the first person drawing lots and the second person drawing lots equal in probability theory?

First of all, we must understand what probability is. Probability and conditional probability are different. If the person in front doesn't win, the conditional probability of the person behind will be bigger and bigger.

Calculate the probability of the nth person's lottery:

First of all, we must understand the lottery. In fact, the lottery is to distribute prizes to people, which is essentially a distribution problem. Considering the classical probability, the total number of basic events is C(N, k), that is, the combination number of k in n. ..

When the nth person draws a lottery, it can be regarded as giving the prize of K- 1 to the remaining N- 1 person, and the corresponding number of basic events is C(N- 1, K- 1), which is N- 1 in the middle.

According to the classical probability, the number of basic events/the total number of basic events corresponding to the nth individual lottery is the probability corresponding to this event, which is simplified by the combination number formula, p = k/n.

In fact, from an intuitive point of view, if this lottery is unfair, it will not be used. No matter what order, this probability should be the same, because it is essentially a distribution problem. Of course, when calculating this probability, you can't take any assumptions, such as whether others have drawn conditions, otherwise the calculated probability must be conditional.