The price of pigs has soared by 35%, the price of eggs has skyrocketed, and the price of oil is about to rise again. What happened?
Introduction At the beginning of June, the weather has gradually become hotter and hotter. Recently, the domestic pig, gasoline, diesel and egg markets have also been restless, with prices fluctuating and rising! Among them, the price of gasoline and diesel has ushered in the "ninth increase" this year. In Shandong, the price of local 92-proof gasoline has risen to 8.99 yuan/L, and the price in many places in the country has exceeded 9 yuan/jin. According to the latest news, Oil prices are about to rise again! In the live pig market, pig prices have shown a slow climb. Compared with late March, this round of pig prices has increased by 35%. Farmers are gradually getting rid of losses. In the egg market, the market has been sluggish recently. However, as the domestic mask problem gradually improves, the terminal market is accelerating, and the price of eggs in the domestic production and sales market has "skyrocketed"! What happened to the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
1. Oil prices are going to rise again!
It is understood that at 24:00 on May 30, domestic refined oil prices ushered in the 10th adjustment of the year. Prices generally increased by 0.3 yuan/L, and the price of No. 92 gasoline in various domestic regions rose to "9 yuan." Times", in the past six months, the price of No. 92 gasoline has increased by more than 3 yuan/L. It is understood that a new round of price adjustment cycle is approaching, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices will usher in the 11th adjustment at 24:00 on June 14!
Currently, according to changes in international oil prices, the price increase of gasoline and diesel in this pricing cycle has reached 277 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of domestic gasoline and diesel will rise to 0.21~0.25 yuan/L, which also means Domestic 92-proof gasoline prices may generally rise into the "9-yuan era"!
2. Pig prices soared 35%!
Since March, the bottom support for pig prices has risen, and domestic pig prices have started a new round of price increases. Under the support of the generally bullish market, with the ban on live pig transportation in the Guangdong market, domestic pork prices have Reserves continue to advance, and the market is optimistic about pig prices in the third quarter. The phenomenon of restocking piglets and medium- and low-standard pigs has increased sharply. The price of live pigs has continued to strengthen. After mid-April, the market has risen sharply. However, with the poor follow-up of consumption, since May, The price of pigs is mainly fluctuating and strong, and the resistance to the market's further rise has increased sharply!
At present, the national average price of live pigs is 15.85 yuan/kg. This round of pig prices has increased cumulatively to 4.11 yuan, an increase of up to 35%! Pig prices have strengthened significantly, and farmers have gradually opened up a profit model. However, due to poor consumption, the pressure on slaughterhouses to sell white pigs has increased sharply, and losses have returned. Some slaughterhouses lose about 120 yuan per pig head. Therefore, slaughterhouses Not only has the mood of enterprises to lower prices become stronger, but their enthusiasm for purchasing has also weakened. However, due to insufficient pig circulation, pig prices are slowly climbing in a swaying manner!
According to data, on June 8, the national market pig price was stable but strong, with most areas trading sideways. In a few areas, slaughterhouse prices increased by 0.05 to 0.2 yuan/kg. ! At present, the price of Heiji Liao is trading sideways at 15.5~15.7 yuan/kg. In the southern market, except for most of East China, which is stable at 16~16.45 yuan/kg, the price difference in the Northeast, Southwest and Central China is almost flat! At present, the regional standard fat price difference has also shrunk significantly, which also means that the market's acceptance of fat pork has deteriorated, and the risk of overweight pigs being slaughtered has increased sharply!
At present, the domestic pig market continues to have a low sales situation. However, the domestic sow stock is trading sideways at a high level, and pig production capacity is still in a loose stage, while the bullish sentiment caused by human factors has intensified the market's "shortage of pigs" However, as the number of pigs pressed into slaughter in pig farms continues to increase, the sentiment for selling large-weight pigs may rebound. Especially from June to July, the risk of "small non-fee" in pig farms has increased sharply, and the consumer market lacks obvious benefits. Due to the high cost of feed, the risk of large pigs being slaughtered on the breeding side has intensified, and the market may be tempted to settle for safety. Therefore, from June to July, there is insufficient motivation for pig prices to continue to rise, and the market has the basis for a trend correction!
3. Egg production and sales surge!
Since the beginning of May, the egg market has started to fall in price. As the number of new laying hens in the market continues to increase, while the number of retired chickens decreases, as the temperature rises, it becomes more difficult to sell goods in the consumer market. The terminal market's enthusiasm for restocking has deteriorated, and egg prices in the production and marketing markets have fallen!
However, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, as the price of eggs in some production areas fell below 4 yuan/jin, and the domestic mask problem improved significantly, the demand in some consumer markets was boosted. Due to the tight supply in all aspects of production and marketing, Egg prices bucked the trend and rose, with sales areas driving production areas and prices "rising skyrocketing"!
According to data, in the Beijing market, the arrival price of eggs increased by 0.1 to 0.2 yuan/catty, and the price of Great Ocean Road eggs rose to 4.5 yuan/catty.
The market quotations in Shanghai and Guangdong are relatively strong, with the Shanghai market trading sideways at 4.29 yuan/jin! In production areas, such as Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Liaoning, Jiangsu and other places, egg prices generally rose by 0.1 yuan/jin, and high-priced egg sources in the Shandong market rose to 4.5 yuan/jin!
According to analysis by industry insiders, as the egg inventory in the sales area market gradually decreases, and the mask problem gradually improves, the terminal market’s sentiment for receiving goods becomes stronger, and traders’ enthusiasm for purchasing goods increases. Overlay, some farmers are raising prices. Emotional support, the egg market rebounded! However, as we enter the mid-summer season, the high temperature and high humidity environment is still a stumbling block for rising egg prices. With various links in production and marketing being emotionally biased towards stocking up, the room for this round of rising egg prices may be limited!
Early warning! The price of pigs has soared by 35%, the price of eggs has skyrocketed, and the price of oil is about to rise again. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author’s personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!
#Today’s National Live Pig Price#