What is Tesla's situation in China? Its sales analysis in the United States and California

Data collection of new energy vehicles in the United States is not easy. With Tesla opening a branch base in Shanghai, a branch base in Germany and an electric pickup factory in Texas in the future, the path of this competitive pattern needs us to make a comeback. In particular, California is the center to expand to the United States and Canada, and then jump step by step. So that today's financial market volatility has created a market value myth. Studying Tesla's demand in California and the United States, and then thinking about its next expansion in China, is particularly critical for us to find living space for our own brand of new energy vehicles.

Part? 1: Tesla's sales in California

Our first step is to analyze the number of registrations in California. This data can reflect the problem very well. Models? 3 is Tesla's game-changing product, from the model? Starting from 20 18 Q 1, the whole volume opens the fast lane. Due to California's new energy policy and independent subsidies, the federal tax rebate of $7,500 is for Model? 3% sales have a feeling of squeezing. When this offer ends, due to the concern of more consumers, the overall demand will be solidified and stabilized. Especially in 20 19, the registered number of Q4 plummeted from 18500 in Q3 to 1400, and the centralized delivery in June of 5438+02 made California reach a record high of 23,200 in the first quarter of this year. California's policy has reduced the number of Q2 registrations to about 9,400, which is also a helpless move.

Remarks: According to statistics, Q2? Models? The registered quantity of Y is 1900 units. What is the model? The registration number of 3 is 595 1. What is the model? The registered number of S/X is 1544 units, and the next step is to climb the mold. y .

Figure 1? Tesla's registration in California in the past four years

In fact, how many cars of Tesla -Model? 3. Model? S and Model? X California's sales accounted for a large part, about 40%, compared with right bolt? BEV's sales account for 50%.

Figure 2? The proportion of Tesla California sales in the United States

In the short term, Tesla's electric car gameplay is to continuously increase the scale, while maintaining its own basic disk, and constantly improve the product cost performance to attract more customers. As shown in the figure below, this kind of play makes Tesla's average sales in California surpass Audi's, and it is on the same level as BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Figure 3? Comparison of Tesla's sales in California and several luxury brands

In particular, with models? 3,2018 q1,BMW? The demand for i3 is basically zero, and the Bolt of dislocation competition? BEV can still keep a piece of land, model? 3 also ate some models? S/X requirements.

Figure 4? Registration of several major electric vehicles in California

Part? 2:? Tesla's sales in the entire US market

From the sales volume of the whole United States, the biggest estimation error of Q 1 is that there are 52,800 units in the United States and 36,800 units in Q2, and the quantity outside California is also developing. As shown in the figure below, the overall average level is about 37%, and Q2 has dropped below 20%.

Figure 5? Tesla's monthly sales in the United States (estimated value) and California's quarterly share

Judging from the data from all over the United States, Tesla has now surpassed Cadillac, which is comparable to Audi, and seeks to attack the stock markets of Lexus, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Figure 6? The proportion of luxury cars in the US market

Tesla gradually opened branches all over the world in order to replicate this model of urban expansion. What we can see is the gradual increase of China's market share.

Figure 7? The relationship between Tesla's three major markets

Using Tesla model? With the gradual preparation of Y production capacity, in the case of accelerating construction, the construction around Shanghai base may also be carried out at an unexpected speed. In various markets, in fact, Tesla's direct competitors are cutting-edge automobile manufacturers and traditional luxury brands. This kind of play is actually around California, around cities with restricted purchases, but the proportion of cities with restricted purchases may be higher.

I think the next essential issue is the "core city dispute". It is inevitable that electric vehicles will continue to burn money. On the one hand, on the sales server (the short board of traditional OEM), on the other hand, the suppression of our product competitiveness will last for a long time.

Table 1? China market 10 before 10 city from June to May;

Summary:

I don't think opening electric vehicles to the countryside can really solve the long-term competitive relationship with Tesla. Who can fight with Tess for a long time at close range? There may not be many survivors, but the surviving electric car players have to face the competition directly, because this core area is still in first-tier cities.

Figure | Network and related screenshots

Author's brief introduction: Zhu Yulong, senior engineer of three electric systems and automotive electronics for electric vehicles, is the author of Hardware Design of Automotive Electronics.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.