Information and occurrence areas of sandstorms, answers during National Day
1. Sources and paths of sand and dust
Sandstorms mainly occur in late spring and early summer. This is due to the fact that there is very little precipitation in arid areas in winter and spring, and the ground surface is abnormally dry and loose, making it resistant to rain. The wind erosion ability is very weak. When strong wind blows, a large amount of sand and dust will be swept into the air, forming a sandstorm
Sandstorm
Sandstorm.
From a global perspective, sandstorms mostly occur in inland desert areas. The main source areas are the Sahara Desert in Africa. The Midwest and Australia of North America are also one of the sources of sandstorms. From 1933 to 1937, due to severe drought, the famous bowl-shaped dust storm occurred in the central and western parts of North America. The centers of Asian sandstorm activity are mainly in the Jordanian desert, Lower Mesopotamia between Baghdad and the northern coast of the Gulf, the southern coast of Iran near Abbas, and the plains of northern Afghanistan. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia of the former Soviet Union are all areas affected by frequent sandstorms (≥15/year), but their centers are in the sandy plains between the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya River area.
Due to its unique geographical environment, the northwest region of my country is also an area where sandstorms occur frequently. The main source areas are the Gurbantunggut Desert, Taklimakan Desert, Badain Jaran Desert, Tengger Desert, and Ulan Desert. Buhe Desert and Mu Us Desert, etc.
From 1999 to the spring of 2002, there were 53 sand and dust weather events in my country (9 in 1999, 14 in 2000, 18 in 2001, and 12 in 2002), including 33 originated from the Gobi region in central and southern Mongolia. In other words, about 60% of the sand and dust that ravages our country every year comes from abroad. This is the research result announced to the media by Li Huang, deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration on July 2. He said that in the spring of 2002, 12 sand and dust weather processes occurred in northern my country. It has three characteristics: concentrated occurrence period, high intensity of occurrence, and wide range of influence. The sources of sand and dust weather affecting my country can be divided into two types: overseas and domestic. Analysis shows that: two-thirds of the sand and dust weather originates in the southern region of Mongolia, and is supplemented by sand and dust materials when passing through northern my country; the sand source within the country is only about one-third. The sand and dust weather that occurs in Central Asia (Kazakhstan) is unlikely to affect the eastern part of northwest my country and even North China. The Taklimakan Desert in southern Xinjiang is an area with high incidence of sand and dust weather in my country, but it generally does not affect the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. my country's sand and dust weather paths can be divided into northwest paths, westward paths and northerly paths: Northwest 1 path, sand and dust weather generally originates from the central and western Mongolian Plateau or the Alxa Plateau in western Inner Mongolia, mainly affecting northwest my country and North China; In the northwest 2 path, the sand and dust weather originates in southern Mongolia or central and western Inner Mongolia, mainly affecting the eastern part of Northwest China, northern North China, and most of Northeast China; in the west path, the sand and dust weather originates in the Gobi area in southwest or southern Mongolia. The desert area in western Inner Mongolia mainly affects northwest my country and northern China; in the northerly direction, sand and dust weather generally originates from the vast area south of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, mainly affecting the eastern northwest region, most of northern China, and southern northeastern China.
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2. Strong wind and dust storms in my country in recent years
According to statistics, there were 8 severe sandstorms in our country in the 1960s, 70 It happened 13 times in the 1980s, 14 times in the 1980s, and more than 20 times since the 1990s. The scope of the disaster is getting wider and wider, and the losses caused are getting heavier and heavier. The relevant situation of several major strong winds and sandstorms that have occurred in my country since the 1990s is introduced as follows: 1993: From April to early May, strong winds occurred many times in the north. From April 19 to May 8, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were successively hit by strong winds and sandstorms. Among them, from May 5 to 6, a huge sandstorm hit eastern Xinjiang, Hexi of Gansu, most of Ningxia, and western Inner Mongolia, causing serious losses. 1994: Starting on April 6, strong winds blew from Mongolia and western Inner Mongolia. Sand and dust from the Gobi desert in the northern part of the country rose with the wind and floated over the Hexi Corridor, filling the sky with loess for several days. 1995: On November 7, more than 40 counties (cities) in Shandong were hit by a storm. 35 people died, 121 people were missing, 320 people were injured, and direct economic losses were more than 1 billion yuan. 1996: From May 29th to 30th, the most serious severe sandstorm since 1965 hit the western part of the Hexi Corridor. Black winds suddenly rose, the sky and the earth closed, sand and dust filled the air, trees collapsed, people had difficulty breathing, and the most destructive The severe direct economic losses in Jiuquan area amounted to more than 200 million yuan. 1998: On April 5, the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, the southwestern part of Ningxia, and the Hexi Corridor of Gansu were hit by strong sandstorms, which affected a wide range of areas, including Beijing, Jinan, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other places. On April 19, the Tushantuo Basin in northern and eastern Xinjiang was hit by strong winds with an instantaneous wind force of magnitude 12, accompanied by sand and dust in some areas. This severe typhoon caused a large amount of property damage, with 6 people dead, 44 missing, and 256 injured. In the early morning of May 19, northern Xinjiang was suddenly hit by strong winds. The wind force in Alashankou, Tacheng and other wind outlet areas reached level 9 to 10, and the instantaneous wind speed reached 32 meters per second. The wind force in other areas generally reached level 6 to 7. Strong winds knocked down trees and cut power lines in some areas.
1999: From April 3 to 4, sustained strong winds and sandstorms occurred in Hohhot for two consecutive days. The sandstorm ranged from the western part of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to the southern part of Tongliao City in the east, with an instantaneous wind speed of 16 meters per second. The highest wind force in Dalat Banner of Yikezhao League reached level 10. 2000: From March 22 to 23, a large-scale sandstorm occurred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Some of the sand was carried over Beijing by strong winds, aggravating the level of sand blowing. On March 27, a sandstorm hit Beijing again, with instantaneous winds reaching level 8 to 9 in some areas. Seven workers who were working on the roof of a two-story building in Anxiangli Community were blown off by strong winds, and two died on the spot. Some billboards were knocked down by strong winds, injuring pedestrians and damaging vehicles. 2002: From March 18 to 21, the sand and dust weather process with the largest scope, strongest intensity, most severe impact, and longest duration since the 1990s hit more than 1.4 million square kilometers of land in northern my country, affecting the population. Reaching 130 million.
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3. What is a sandstorm?
Sandstorm is a general term for both sandstorm and duststorm. It refers to strong wind blowing a large amount of sand and dust material from the ground into the air, making the air particularly turbid and horizontal. Visible
sandstorms
severe wind and sand weather phenomena with a intensity less than 1km. A sandstorm refers to a sandstorm caused by strong winds blowing large amounts of sand into the near-surface layer; a dust storm is a storm caused by strong winds carrying large amounts of dust and other fine-grained materials into high altitudes.
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IV. Concepts, regulations and standards of sand and dust weather
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(1 ) Concept of sand and dust weather:
Sand and dust weather is divided into four categories: floating dust, blowing sand, sand storms and strong sand storms.
Floating dust: Dust and fine sand float evenly in the air, making the horizontal visibility less than 10 kilometers;
Blowing sand: The wind blows up the dust and sand on the ground, making the air thicker. Turbidity, a weather phenomenon with horizontal visibility within 1 km to 10 km;
Sandstorm: Strong winds blow up a large amount of dust and sand on the ground, making the air very turbid, and a weather phenomenon with horizontal visibility less than 1 km;
Strong sandstorm: A weather phenomenon in which strong winds blow up dust and sand on the ground, making the air blurry and turbid, and the horizontal visibility is less than 500 meters.
Satellite photos of sand and dust storms in Australia
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(2) Classification of sand and dust weather processes
Classification of sand and dust weather processes There are four categories: floating dust weather process, blowing sand weather process, sandstorm weather process and strong sandstorm weather process.
Dust weather process: During the same weather process, 5 or more national basic (accurate) stations in my country’s weather forecast area experienced floating dust weather at the same observation time;
Sand-blowing weather process: During the same weather process, 5 or more national basic (accurate) stations in my country's weather forecast area experienced sand-blowing weather at the same observation time;
Sand storm Weather process: During the same weather process, sandstorms occurred at the same observation time at three or more countries' basic (accurate) stations in my country's weather forecast area;
Strong sandstorm weather process: During the same weather process, strong sandstorms occurred at the same observation time at three or more national basic (accurate) stations in my country's weather forecast area.
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5. Causes and physical mechanisms of sandstorms
Causes of sandstorms
< p> Weather conditions that are conducive to the generation of strong winds, favorable distribution of sand and dust sources and favorable air instability conditions are the main reasons for the formation of sandstorms or strong sandstorms. Strong winds are the driving force for the generation of sandstorms, and sand and dust sources are the materials of sandstorms. Basically, unstable thermal conditions are conducive to the increase of wind and the development of strong convection, which will entrain more dust and carry it higher.In addition, there was drought and little rain in the early stage, and the weather changed. Warm and rising temperatures are the special weather and climate background for the formation of sandstorms; the development of convective cells in front of the ground cold front into clouds or squall lines is a medium- and small-scale system that is conducive to the development and intensification of sandstorms; the terrain conditions that are conducive to increased wind speed are narrow The ducting effect is one of the favorable conditions for the formation of sandstorms
The physical mechanism of sandstorm formation
In an extremely favorable large-scale environment, high-altitude dry and cold jets and strong vertical wind speed and wind shear. Under conditions of thermally unstable stratification, the formation and development of medium- and small-scale systems near the frontal area aggravates the pressure and temperature gradients before and after the frontal area, forming a huge pressure-temperature gradient before and after the frontal area and a gradient deviation wind. Under the simultaneous action of wind and water, the wind speed near the ground rises sharply, kicking up surface sand and dust, forming sandstorms or strong sandstorms.
The main hazards of sandstorms
⑴ Strong winds: carrying fine particles. Strong winds of sand and dust destroyed buildings and public facilities, causing casualties to people and animals.
⑵ Sand burial: Farmland, channels, cottages, railways, pastures, etc. are buried by a large amount of sand due to wind and sand flow, especially posing a serious threat to transportation.
⑶ Soil wind erosion: The dust source and affected area of each sandstorm will be harmed by wind erosion to varying degrees, and the depth of wind erosion can reach 1 to 10 centimeters. It is estimated that my country's annual loss of fine soil matter caused by sandstorms is as high as 106 to 107 tons, most of which have particle sizes below 10 microns, causing serious damage to the land productivity of farmland and pastures in the source areas.
⑷ Atmospheric pollution: In the source areas and affected areas of sandstorms, respirable particulate matter (TSP) in the atmosphere increases, and air pollution intensifies. Taking the "5.5" extremely severe sandstorm in 1993 as an example, the TSP concentration of outdoor air in Jinchang City, Gansu Province reached 1016 mg/m3 and indoors was 80 mg/m3, exceeding the national standard by 40 times. From March to April 2000, the Beijing area was affected by sandstorms. The air pollution index reached level 4 or above for 10 days, which also affected many cities in eastern my country. From March 24 to 30, the daily pollution index in 18 cities, including Nanjing and Hangzhou, exceeded level 4.
The harm of black wind
The harm of black wind mainly has two words, one is wind and the other is sand.
There are two dangers of strong wind: one is wind damage, and the other is land erosion.
Let’s talk about wind damage first. Strong winds damaged buildings, knocked down or uprooted trees and poles, and tore off farmers' plastic greenhouses and farmland mulch films, etc. In addition, April and May in the northwest region are the time when economic crops such as fruits, vegetables, sugar beets, and cotton emerge, grow cotyledons or true leaves, and fruit trees bloom. At this time, they are least resistant to wind and sand. At least, the leaves are covered with dust, which weakens photosynthesis, affects respiration, and reduces crop yield; at worst, the seedlings die and the flowers fall, let alone mature fruits. For example, the black wind on May 5, 1993 knocked down the stamens of 85,000 fruit trees in the northwest region, and broke or uprooted 109,400 shelterbelts and timber forests. In addition, strong winds knocked down power poles, causing water and power outages, affecting industrial and agricultural production. The power outage and water outage caused by the black wind on May 5, 1993 caused economic losses of 83 million yuan to Jinchuan Company in Jinchang City alone.
When strong winds act on loose soil in arid areas, they will remove a layer of topsoil, which is called wind erosion. For example, the average wind erosion depth of the black wind on May 5, 1993 was ten centimeters (up to 50 centimeters), which means that an average of 60 to 70 cubic meters of fertile topsoil per acre was blown away by the wind. In fact, strong winds not only blow away the fine clay and organic matter in the soil, but also accumulate the sand they brought in the soil, greatly reducing the soil fertility. In addition, strong winds and sand particles can also wear away a layer of the surface of buildings and crops, which is called abrasion, which is also a disaster.
The main harm caused by sand is sand burial. As mentioned before, in terrains such as narrow tubes, windward and ridges, due to high wind speeds, the main damage caused by wind and sand is wind erosion, while in terrains with low wind speeds such as leeward depressions, the main damage caused by wind and sand is sand burial. For example, where sand burial occurred during the black wind on May 5, 1993, the sand burial thickness averaged 20 centimeters, with the thickest point reaching 1.2 meters.
More importantly, the loss of human life. For example, in the black storm on May 5, 1993, 85 people were killed, 264 were injured, and 31 were missing. In addition, 120,000 large livestock died or were lost, 5.6 million acres of crops were damaged, more than 2,000 kilometers of water channels, the lifeline of sand-buried arid areas, were lost, and the Lanzhou-Xinjiang Railway was suspended for 31 hours. The total economic loss exceeded 540 million yuan.
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6. The hazards of sandstorm weather
Sandstorm weather is a highly disastrous weather that occurs in northwest my country and northern North China. It can It causes house collapse, traffic and power supply obstruction or interruption, fire, human and animal casualties, etc., pollutes the natural environment, destroys crop growth, and
Sandstorms
have serious consequences for the construction of the national economy and the safety of people's lives and property. losses and great harm. The main hazards of sandstorms are in the following aspects:
1. Deterioration of the ecological environment
When sandstorms occur, sand, stones and floating dust wrapped in strong winds spread everywhere, making the air in any area passing through turbid and choking. The number of eye, respiratory and other diseases has increased. For example, during the severe sandstorm that occurred in Jinchang City on May 5, 1993, the measured dust content in the outdoor air was 1016 mm/cubic centimeter, and the indoor dust content was 80 mm/cubic centimeter, exceeding the national dust content in living areas. 40 times the standard.
2. Impact on production and life
Sandstorm weather carries a large amount of sand and dust that blocks the sun and light, and the weather is gloomy, resulting in reduced solar radiation and poor visibility for several hours to more than ten hours. It is easy to make people feel depressed and reduce the efficiency of work and study. In mild cases, a large number of livestock can be infected with respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases. In severe cases, it can lead to the death of a large number of "spring fatigue" livestock and scrape away fertile farmland, seeds and seedlings. Sandstorms will also intensify wind erosion and desertification of surface soil, covering plant leaves with thick dust, affecting normal photosynthesis and causing crop yield reductions.
3. Loss of life and property
On May 5, 1993, a severe sandstorm occurred in Jinchang, Weiwu, Minqin, Baiyin and other cities in Gansu Province, affecting 2.5355 million farmland mu, 42,800 trees were lost, causing direct economic losses of 236 million yuan, 50 deaths, and 153 serious injuries. On April 12, 2000, severe sandstorms occurred in Yongchang, Jinchang, Weiwu, Minqin and other cities. According to incomplete statistics, only Jinchang and Weiwu suffered direct economic losses of 15.34 million yuan.
4. Traffic safety (traffic accidents such as airplanes and cars)
Sandstorm weather often affects traffic safety, causing planes to be unable to take off or land normally, causing damage to the glass of cars and train carriages, and causing parking problems. Luck or derailment.
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7. Causes of sandstorms
Sandstorms cause soil wind erosion
According to Xinhua News Agency Lanzhou News in China Thanks to the efforts of experts from the Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering of the Academy of Sciences, a sandstorm wind tunnel simulation experiment specially set up to explore the initiation and transmission mechanism of sand and dust materials was successfully completed recently.
Through experiments, experts have discovered that soil wind erosion is the primary link in the occurrence and development of sandstorms. Wind is the most direct driving force of soil, among which the nature of air flow, wind speed, and related conditions of wind force during soil wind erosion are the most important factors. In addition, soil moisture content is also one of the important reasons affecting soil wind erosion.
This experiment also proved that plant measures are one of the effective methods to prevent sandstorms. Experts believe that plants usually affect wind erosion in three ways: dispersing a certain amount of wind momentum on the ground and reducing the transfer between airflow and dust; and preventing the movement of soil, dust, etc.
In addition, through experiments, researchers have drawn a conclusion: the occurrence of sandstorms is not only a product of specific natural environmental conditions, but also has a corresponding relationship with human activities. Man-made overgrazing, deforestation of forest vegetation, industrial and mining transportation construction, and especially man-made excessive reclamation destroy ground vegetation, disturb the ground structure, and form large areas of desertified land, which directly accelerate the formation and development of sandstorms.
The culprit of sandstorms: atmospheric circulation
The brief scene of sandstorms in Beijing in the spring is nothing more than the 300,000-square-kilometer Loess Plateau in northern China that has grown over the past two to three million years. It is a weather process that must be experienced every year. The difference is that the wind in the latter is stronger and lasts longer (can last for several days). The source of sand and dust is not a crossroad 50 meters away, but hundreds of kilometers away in the desert and Gobi.
It’s like God is playing an incredible game: He picks up the sand and dust on the surface of the deserts and Gobi in northwest China and Central Asia and throws it toward the southeast, allowing the dust to gradually accumulate where it falls. A piece of high ground. This game started about 2.4 million years ago, and God still enjoys it (in 2002, "Nature" magazine published the latest research results of Chinese scholars, pushing the start time to 22 million years ago).
In fact, the wind is God’s hand that casts the sand.
After the Indian plate moved northward and collided with the Eurasian plate, the crust of the Indian continent was inserted under the crust of the Asian continent and held up the latter. As a result, the shallow sea in the Himalayas disappeared, the Himalayas began to form and gradually rose higher, and the Tibetan Plateau was also uplifted by the compression of the Indian plate. This process lasted for more than 60 million years, and by about 2.4 million years ago, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was more than 2,000 meters high.
The huge changes in surface morphology directly changed the pattern of atmospheric circulation. Before that, mainland China was bounded by the Pacific Ocean to the east, Siberia to the north and the Himalayas to the south were occupied by shallow seas respectively. The Mediterranean Sea to the west also stretched far into central Asia at that time, so most of the flat mainland China could get enough water. Moistened by ocean warm and humid air currents, the climate is warm and humid. Most of northwest China and the interior of Central Asia are subtropical areas, and there are no large-scale deserts and Gobis.
However, the east-west Himalayas blocked the northward movement of warm and humid air masses from the Indian Ocean. Over time, China's northwest region became increasingly dry, gradually forming large areas of desert and Gobi. This is the origin of the dust that accumulated on the Loess Plateau. The huge Tibetan Plateau stands right in the westerly wind belt of the Northern Hemisphere, and its height has continued to grow over the past 2.4 million years. The width of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau accounts for about one-third of the westerly belt, dividing the near-surface layer of the westerly belt into north and south branches. The southern branch flows eastward along the southern side of the Himalayas, and the northern branch flows eastward from the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. This high-altitude airflow exists at an altitude of 3,500-7,000 meters all year round and becomes the main driving force for transporting sand and dust. At the same time, due to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, the East Asian monsoon has also been strengthened. The winter wind blowing from the northwest to the southeast, together with the westerly jet stream, has created a Loess Plateau in northern China.
In the deserts and Gobis of northwest China and the interior of Central Asia, due to drastic changes in temperature, rocks here can break apart and disintegrate faster than elsewhere, turning into debris. Geologists measure the diameter of They are divided into: gravel (larger than 2 mm), sand (2-0.05 mm), silt sand (0.05-0.005 mm), clay (less than 0.005 mm).
Clay and silt particles can be carried to an altitude of more than 3,500 meters into the westerly belt, and are carried southeastward by the westerly jet stream before gradually falling down to the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.
For two to three million years, the process of transporting sand and soil from northwest to southeast has never stopped in this area of Asia. The area where large amounts of sand and soil fell happens to be the area where the Loess Plateau is located, including the Wutai Mountains, Taihang Mountains, etc. There are loess accumulations on the tops of many mountains in North China. Of course, the scouring effect of several large rivers in northern China, including the Yellow River, and countless valleys on the surface is exactly opposite to the accumulation of loess. Otherwise, the Loess Plateau would not be what it is now, with a thickness of no more than 409.93 meters. The North China Plain to the east of the Taihang Mountains is also a sedimentation area of sand, but it is a continuously sinking area and has developed many rivers. Therefore, the falling sand is either washed away by the rivers or is brought by the rivers. Buried.
There are hundreds of records about "rain soil", "rain loess", "rain yellow sand" and "rain haze" in ancient Chinese books. The earliest record of "rain soil" can be traced back to BC 1150: The sky is filled with yellow mist, and sand and soil fall from the sky like rain. What is recorded here is actually a sandstorm.
The rain soil is mainly located on the Loess Plateau and its vicinity. The ancients regarded such things as strange catastrophic phenomena, and believed that this was a sign of "reception from heaven and man". It is recorded in the natural history compiled by Zhang Hua of the Jin Dynasty: "During the time of Xia Jie, the Changye Palace was located in a deep valley. Men and women lived together, and they did not come out for ten days to listen to politics. The sky was full of wind and sand, and the empty valley was filled overnight."
Between 1966 and 1999, there were as many as 60 sandstorms that lasted for more than two days in our country. Academician Liu Dongsheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences believes that the Loess Plateau should be said to be a laboratory for sandstorms. This laboratory has accumulated records of sandstorms over the past millions of years. The wind and sand from the deserts and Gobi in northwestern China spread all over the sky, leaving a thin layer of loess on the Loess Plateau every year.
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8. The role of sandstorms in the ecosystem
Although sandstorms cause many hazards, the entire sandstorm process is also natural. It is an indispensable part of the ecosystem. For example, the large amount of iron carried in Australia's red sandstorms has proven to be an important source of nutrients for phytoplankton in the Antarctic sea. Phytoplankton can also consume large amounts of carbon dioxide to slow down the greenhouse effect. Harm, so the impact level of sandstorms is not all negative. Perhaps on another level, sandstorms may also be a symptom of the earth's response to environmental changes, just like when we have a cold, we cough to remove waste from the trachea. Australia has brought together many climate scientists to study how sandstorms provide nutrients to the Tasman Sea and many other effects. They found that red quartz deposits from Australian sandstorms can also be found in New Zealand, and in turn fertilize New Zealand's land; therefore, the nutrient losses caused by Australian sandstorms can lead to nutrient gains in New Zealand's land. For example, analysis of fertile soil sediments in Hawaii can also prove that many nutrients come from the distant interior of Eurasia. Because the two places are thousands of miles apart, ordinary wind cannot blow inland dust to such a far place. Therefore, it is sandstorms that carry fine but nutrient-containing dust up to an altitude of 3,000 meters, across the ocean, and then scatter them like seeds. Come down. In addition to the Hawaiian Islands, scientists have also discovered that the rainforest in the Amazon Basin, the largest green lung on earth, also benefits from sandstorms. An important source of nutrients for it is also dust in the air. The secret behind how sandstorms can turn rocks into lush greenery is that dust aerosols contain iron ions and other ingredients that help plant growth. In addition, since sandstorms are often born in dry and highly saline land, some soil particles carried by sandstorms often contain alkaline substances, which can often slow down acid rain or soil acidification in settlement areas near sandstorms. Mr. Wang Zifa from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences once said: "Sandstorms indeed reduce the acidity of acid rain. The neutralization of dust and soil particles increases the PH value of precipitation in northern China by 0.8-2.5 and in South Korea by 05.-0.8 , Japan increased by 0.2-0.5. Without the effect of sand and dust, the harm of acid rain in many northern areas would be much more serious. "Therefore, although sand and dust storms are very harmful, they are also a necessary process in the natural ecology of the earth. Sandstorms have occurred throughout human history. It’s just that we should be more active in looking for the mechanism of abnormal sandstorm frequency to truly solve the environmental hazards of abnormal climate change.