Will the intensive launch of characteristic towns become a new ghost town?
In July last year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the Notice on Cultivating Small Towns with Characteristics, which clearly stated that by 2020, we should strive to cultivate 1000 new towns with their own characteristics and vitality. When the plan was first introduced, the urban housing market was booming, and the housing enterprises had not realized the value of the policy. However, with the gradual tightening of the real estate market, a large number of real estate enterprises began to realize the value of planning, and characteristic towns were once hot.
Today, we will talk about the special fields of real estate, the characteristic towns and the hidden risks behind them.
First, the characteristic town is in full swing
After the launch of the New Deal Plan, housing enterprises at all levels quickly found business opportunities. According to the incomplete statistics of the paper, companies including Country Garden, Huaxia Happiness, Greentown, Greenland, Sunac, OCT, Agile, Sunshine City, etc. have made new moves in characteristic towns. By May of 20 17, Country Garden has successfully laid out five technology towns, and Greenland Holdings has incorporated the characteristic towns into the development strategy of 20 17, and will select the outer suburbs of first-and second-tier key cities supported by the purchasing power spillover effect of big cities to start large-scale projects of characteristic towns. OCT also plans to build 100 small towns with China traditional folk culture characteristics, while Time Real Estate announced that it will invest 900 billion yuan to lay out 30 "future towns" projects in five years.
It can be said that after your performance, the Eight Immortals showed their magical powers, which made the real estate funds and projects originally evacuated from hot cities have a new investment direction. It is true that from the perspective of promoting economic development, developing characteristic towns is an important measure to realize urban-rural integration and rural urbanization. If it is done well, it will definitely benefit the country and the people.
I have carefully studied the development ideas of characteristic towns and think that there are two obvious development trends in their development. One trend is to undertake the development direction of suburban urbanization in Europe and America. With the rapid development of central cities in Europe and America, the real estate prices in central cities are also rising rapidly, which leads to a large number of urban residents choosing to leave the city center and move to the suburbs, thus forming a large number of suburban urban settlements around the city, and developing into characteristic towns on this basis. The other is the prevalence of cultural tourism. There used to be a large number of small towns with cultural characteristics in the vast rural areas of China, such as Zhouzhuang, Mudu, Nanxun, Zhujiajiao and Gubeikou. These ancient towns have become tourist cards for many places with their local characteristics. If such a small town can be excavated, it will not only form a new development model, but also inherit and spread traditional culture.
Judging from these two development ideas, developing characteristic towns is undoubtedly an extremely favorable development direction. The former can effectively alleviate the population pressure in the central city, which is equivalent to forming a satellite city in the central city, and can let more residents have a good living environment at a low price. The latter is the excavation and inheritance of cultural heritage and the centralized utilization of tourism resources. However, on the other hand, real estate enterprises are so big and so fast that people have to worry. Is it true that as long as real estate funds, real estate projects and real estate land are in place, the development of characteristic towns will be realized?
Second, the real estate hidden worries behind the development boom of characteristic towns
In my opinion, the rapid launch of characteristic town projects by real estate enterprises is actually a blind investment behavior in the case of asset shortage and unclear development direction of real estate enterprises, and the hidden risks of this behavior are still relatively large. For domestic real estate enterprises, some large real estate companies are fully capable of building a small town into a physical space that meets the planning requirements within two to three years, not to mention the preservation of high-rise buildings or antiques. However, it is not difficult to build a nest to attract phoenix, but how to attract phoenix, how to build a town, attract people and retain people are all big problems facing real estate enterprises.
The problems that real estate enterprises must face can be summarized as the following aspects:
The first is how to solve the problem of homogenization of thousands of towns. I don't know if you feel this way. Whether it is Wuzhen and Zhouzhuang, Mudu and Nanxun, or Zhujiajiao and Qibao Ancient Town in Shanghai, the styles are very similar. Many people think that the novelty of going to a place will fade, and some even think that it is meaningless to go to another place after going to one place. Tourist souvenirs, tourist catering, tourist accommodation and other industries associated with small towns are very similar. It is possible that you bought the same thing in small towns in Shanghai and Yunnan. Whether it is a small town developed by real estate development enterprises, it is difficult for existing famous towns to establish their own differentiated competitive advantages, especially for real estate developers.
Second, how characteristic towns can drive industrial development. There are four types of characteristic towns made by real estate enterprises, namely, industrial new towns, cultural tourism towns, modern agricultural towns and science and technology service towns. For most developers, the real estate development and construction plan of the town is very clear, but the industrial development plan of the town is generally vague. How to link urban construction with urban development, and even promote urban industrial development through urban construction, has become a huge problem faced by developers. How to prevent the town from becoming a pure real estate development project is indeed worthy of vigilance.
The third is how the characteristic towns can continue to make profits. Everyone thinks that the existing towns such as Wuzhen and Zhouzhuang are profitable, and it should not be difficult for characteristic towns to make profits. However, the ideal is full, but the reality is often very backbone. There are thousands of small towns with traditional history and culture in China, many of which have been fully developed in recent years. However, only a few people really make profits, and most of them are at a loss. It is easy to build a characteristic town, but it is difficult to make a profit. Basically, from the perspective of industrial development, it is impossible for a high-quality small town project to achieve sustained profitability without ten years of efforts. If the sustainable profit of the town cannot be realized, real estate enterprises will flock to the town today and may withdraw one after another in the future. The end result is that the local residents of the town will be harmed.
In my opinion, the formation of a town is a long-term process of economic development and cultural accumulation, which is by no means easily solved by an enterprise soon. If the business model of urban construction cannot be reasonably planned and carefully studied, the town projects that have been launched now may become new real estate ghost towns. How to avoid risks and truly achieve profitability is a test for real estate enterprises.
Viewing Jiang Han, the official account of World WeChat from an economic perspective ID: jianghanwiew