It makes sense丨2020 is a watershed for China’s new energy vehicle market
Recently, there has been a wave of discussion about the development of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. The reason is that the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" at the end of September. The plan adjusts the target ratio of new energy vehicle sales to overall sales in 2025 from the previous 25 to 20. Some commentators say that this is the victory of the internal combustion engine and the surrender of new energy. But on the contrary, I believe that 2020 will be a turning point and a year of momentum for the development of electric vehicles in China.
In fact, it doesn’t matter whether it is 25 or 20, more or less. What matters is the direction of development. The full text of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" further clarifies the electrification, networking, and intelligent development strategies and routes. Once the market enters the consumer-driven stage, the speed of development may exceed our imagination.
In fact, 2020 is indeed a turning point for China’s new energy vehicle market. An important landmark event is that the sales volume of Tesla Model 3 has exceeded 10,000 for several consecutive months, surpassing the same level of fuel vehicles - BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4. An electric vehicle has formed a negative impact on the same level of fuel vehicles. There has never been such a big threat.
At the same time, Tesla’s rising sales have not affected the rise of sales of Chinese new energy vehicle companies. NIO delivered 4,708 vehicles in September and 5,055 vehicles in October, an increase of more than 100% compared with the same period last year, and continues to reach new highs. Ideal delivered 3,504 vehicles in September and 3,692 vehicles in October. It took 11 months to deliver more than 20,000 vehicles. Xiaopeng delivered 3,478 vehicles in September and 3,040 vehicles in October, an increase of more than 200 compared to the same period last year.
As a result, the capital market has given NIO, Xpeng, and Ideal extremely crazy valuations. As of the close of trading on November 5, Eastern Time, NIO's market value has reached US$56.1 billion, Xpeng's market value has reached US$25.5 billion, and Ideal's market value has reached US$22.1 billion, surpassing many established traditional car companies, which is embarrassing.
The sales volume shows that new powerful car companies such as NIO, Ideal, and Xpeng have initially established a firm foothold. The market value represents the capital market's optimism and expectations for the new energy market and these three car companies. Most people did not expect that new power car companies would have such good sales performance this year, nor did they expect that the capital market would give them such high valuations.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, sales of new energy vehicles from January to September this year were 734,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. But as far as September is concerned, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 136,000 and 138,000 respectively, a month-on-month increase of 28.9 and 26.2, and a year-on-year increase of 48.0 and 67.7. Starting from July this year, new energy vehicle sales began to recover significantly. Although judging from last year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles this year will not increase much compared to last year, the sales structure has undergone qualitative changes. The number of electric vehicles purchased by individuals has increased significantly, surpassing the proportion of B-end markets such as online ride-hailing.
Since state subsidies began to decline sharply last year, the new energy vehicle market experienced a decline and consolidation in the second half of last year and the first half of this year, and has begun to enter a more healthy and benign product and market drive. stage. Therefore, 2020 is a watershed in the development of new energy in China. The new energy vehicle market has experienced ten years of encouragement and promotion from the national government, and many new energy vehicle companies have continued to innovate, and their product strength has begun to compete with fuel stations. They are on the same level and can compete with each other, and consumers began to vote with their feet and stood in the new energy vehicle camp.
Another important year for China’s electric vehicle market is 2014. On April 22 of that year, Tesla entered China and officially delivered the Model S to the first batch of users in China. It had a huge response among China's technological elite and high-income people. People did not expect that the performance of electric vehicles could beat supercars in an instant. It can be continuously upgraded online through OTA. If electric cars were only toys and luxuries for some elites at that time, now electric cars are beginning to truly enter the homes of some ordinary people. They didn’t buy it because they couldn’t figure it out, but they bought it because I liked it. This is an essential change.
The market turning point has arrived.
More and more amazing products will come to this market. Gaohe Automobile, led by Ding Lei, launched HiPhi? Volkswagen launches the ID4 this week, and Nissan launches the Ariya next year. Whether it is new forces or traditional car companies, the real competition in the electric vehicle market has begun.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.