Flood disaster after typhoon Sudero

First, the typhoon has a strong wind and landed head-on. "Sudero" cloud system is dense, the typhoon eye is clear and the intensity is developing rapidly. The triple jump from a strong tropical storm to a super typhoon was completed within 36 hours, and the maximum wind force near the center once exceeded 17. Affected by the east-turning airflow from the south side of the subtropical high, it moved steadily to the northwest at a speed of 20 to 25 kilometers per hour, and gradually approached Taiwan Province Island. It is estimated that the wind force will be 14 to 15 when landing on the eastern coast of Taiwan Province Province, and then land on the coast of Fujian again. When landing, the maximum wind force near the center can still reach 12 ~ 14.

Second, it has a long life cycle and great energy. On July 30th, "soudelor" was formed on the ocean surface about 4,000 kilometers southeast of Taiwan Province Island, far from the mainland. It is estimated that its life cycle will be more than 12 days. Before landing on Taiwan Province Island, it will stay at sea for as long as 9 days, and the sea temperature in the typhoon moving area will be around 30 degrees, which is beneficial to the development and maintenance of typhoon intensity, and the energy will accumulate continuously, with great destructive power.

Third, the storm increased water and the sea conditions were complicated. Affected by "soudelor", there will be a storm surge from the Yangtze River estuary to the coastal area of Fujian. It is estimated that the maximum storm surge at Minjiang Estuary in Fujian is close to 2 meters. The East China Sea, the Taiwan Province Strait and the waters near Diaoyu Island are surging, and the sea conditions are very bad. Especially when the "Sudero" center passes through the east of Taiwan Province Island, there will be wild waves of 9 to 13 meters, and there will be wild waves of 4 to 6 meters in the coastal waters of Fujian and Zhejiang, which will pose a great threat to offshore production activities.

Fourth, the rainfall intensity is large and the detention time is long. It is predicted that the heavy rainfall brought by Sudero will affect the southeast coast of China from the 7th, and there will be heavy rains in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai, and heavy rains in some areas, with the rainfall reaching100-200mm, among which there will be heavy rains of 250-400mm in the coastal areas of Fujian and southern Zhejiang, and the local rainfall may exceed 500. After landing, "Sudero" will go deep inland and move northward, which does not rule out the possibility of encountering cold air and staying for a long time.

Fifth, it has a wide range of influence and a long defensive front. It is predicted that strong winds and heavy rainfall may affect Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, Shandong, Henan, Liaoning, Jilin and other 13 provinces after Sudero landed. Among them, Fujian, Zhejiang and other provinces have heavy rains, which overlap with the areas affected by "Chanhong" and "Lotus" and the areas with heavy rainfall in the previous period. Areas affected by floods some time ago will face the threat of heavy rainfall and strong winds again. In addition, the typhoon's influence range extends from Guangdong to Jilin in the south, and the defense front is long, which increases the difficulty of defense.

All member units of the National Defense General and relevant regions attach great importance to the defense of the strong typhoon Sudero. On August 4, the National Defense General issued a notice to the relevant provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and river basin defense general in the southeast coastal and inland areas, demanding that all defense work be done in advance. The China Meteorological Bureau, the State Oceanic Administration and the Hydrology Bureau of the Ministry of Water Resources strengthened monitoring and forecasting, and timely released early warning information on typhoons, waves, rain and water conditions. The Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture, the General Staff Department of the People's Liberation Army, and the Armed Police Force made arrangements in advance for the defense of Typhoon Sudero in accordance with the division of responsibilities. Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and other provinces and cities, as well as Taihu Lake, Pearl River and other river basins, have made arrangements in advance according to the actual conditions of various places and river basins.

According to the analysis, there are six unfavorable factors in defending against the strong typhoon Sudero, which must be paid great attention to.

First, typhoons that landed in China in early August often caused serious disasters. For example, Nina No.7503, Mai Sha No.0509 and Sang Mei No.0608 all landed in the coastal areas of Zhejiang and Fujian in early August and went deep inland, causing extremely serious impacts and disasters. Among them, Nina No.7503 caused the "75.8" flood in Huaihe River. "soudelor" is very similar to them in terms of path, intensity, landing place and time. It is not ruled out that it will encounter cold air in the north. Long-term detention will bring heavy rainfall and trigger basin floods, and its influence and destructive power cannot be underestimated.

Second, while Sudero attacked the southeast coast of China, there were new tropical cyclone activities, which may also develop into TyphoonNo. 14 this year, once again forming a complicated situation in which two typhoons interacted with each other. Affected by subtropical high, continental high, cold air and double typhoons, the direction, intensity and influence of Sudero after landing are still variable, which increases the difficulty of forecasting and defense.

Third, the fishing moratorium in the South China Sea has just ended, and a large number of fishing boats go out to sea to fish. Fishing boats return to Hong Kong to take shelter from the wind.