What do you think of this economic winter?
It's not enough to be afraid of cold weather, just wear warm clothes. However, the cold winter of the economic situation has come before the weather. The cold hit the body and many people were already shivering.
This winter is global, sweeping the world, and no one can escape when human beings have not yet achieved interstellar navigation.
The trend of globalization, which has lasted for decades, shows signs of interruption. The engine of world economic growth has stalled, and it is possible to turn from an open economy to a closed economy.
The Russian-Ukrainian war led to the deterioration of the global geopolitical situation, the sudden shortage of energy supply and the skyrocketing price of upstream resources, which led to serious inflation. The CPI in Europe and America keeps rising, and people can hardly afford to add gas. When winter comes, how to keep warm for the winter has become the number one problem. Some people can't afford natural gas and even hoard firewood.
Pay cuts, unemployment, store closures, stock market crashes, funds falling below the net value, the closure of bond exchanges, and the default of urban investment bonds are all the results of the cold winter infiltrating into every pore.
At the annual meeting of Tencent at the end of 20021,Ma took the initiative to mention winter: "We found that from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the whole industry was in fierce participation and competition. As a result, in just one or two months, the cold winter suddenly came. Just like the temperature has dropped, I am still wearing short sleeves and I am unprepared. "
Ren Zheng Fei published an internal open letter this year. He believes that "the global economy will continue to decline" and that "survival should be the most important program, marginal businesses will be fully contracted and closed, and the cold will be passed on to everyone".
Although Lao Ren wrote Winter in Huawei in 2003, many people think that he is too alarmist. But this time, winter really came.
This round of economic recession goes hand in hand with inflation, which is rare in history and extremely difficult to deal with.
Accustomed to the warm spring in bloom and the crowing, people are almost unarmed and naked in the face of unexpected winter. Without effective measures, there is no doubt that they will freeze to death in the cold wind.
Don't believe chicken soup like "If winter comes, can spring be far behind" or Ma Yun really said "Today is cruel, tomorrow is even more cruel, and the day after tomorrow is beautiful, but most people will die tomorrow night and won't see the sun the day after tomorrow."
If you can't make it through winter, spring has nothing to do with you
In the winter of global economy, every group should have a strategy to keep out the cold, and if the strategy is proper, it can persist in the final victory.
1, state-owned enterprises
Shoulder your special mission, since resources are given by the state, licenses are issued by the state, and status is given by the state, then when the country is in economic difficulties, it is necessary to make contributions.
State-owned enterprises are owned by the state and owned by the people. Don't always think about your own land, make less luxury chandeliers and overpriced Maotai, and help more needy groups. Always make the right friends, make the right people, and have a high political consciousness.
Don't go your own way and let private enterprises have no way out. It's okay to make money by yourself, but leave some for other subjects. A diversified society will prosper, and it will be enough for the cake to grow bigger, otherwise the state-owned enterprises will have to eat chaff and swallow vegetables.
2. Large private enterprises
There are too many examples in front, so don't be crazy when you are proud. You think Lao Tzu is the best in the world and can do anything. How many so-called private enterprise giants are not supported by banks? As soon as the capital chain is tightened, it is worse than putting a rope on le neck. Without any leverage, how much food do you have, how cool leveraged mergers and acquisitions are, and how miserable landslides and bloody collapses are.
The pace of acquisition has stopped, the scale expansion has slowed down, financing is unreliable, and self-hematopoiesis is fundamental. Ren said that we should pay attention to profit and cash flow. Who dares to say that private enterprises are better than Ren? In the past, the trick of staking the land at all costs and then taking it to the capital market to fool investors could not be played. This is the right way to put money in your pocket.
Otherwise, once the crisis breaks out, there are many examples where the family business that has worked hard for half a lifetime is sold cheaply in an instant.
3. Small and medium-sized private enterprises
Don't dream of entering Forbes and Hurun list all day, and steadily stabilize the basic disk. Standing firm in adversity is more important than anything else. Speaking of economic depression, it is not shameful to retreat and hibernate. Borrow less and don't touch the folk usury.
Really not good. Cut it, the marketing investment will be reduced, the R&D investment will be guaranteed, the internal strength will be improved during contraction, and the winner will be waiting for the opportunity to skyrocket.
Of course, listing is the purpose, but survival is the foundation. Someone said they would invest in you. You can be cautious and happy, but you can't be too serious, so as not to get money and spend money that you shouldn't spend.
Special reminder, don't do unpaid wages because of economic difficulties. It's not worth getting yourself into legal disputes for a little petty profit. Small enterprises have weak risk tolerance, and a lawsuit may destroy an enterprise. In today's increasingly perfect legal supervision, obeying the law and standardizing management is the first rule for small and medium-sized enterprises.
4. Investors
Two squeezed investors are not good at financing and investment. Owners who hold huge amounts of money should not cast nets everywhere. The liquidation period is closer, which is better than being sued by LP for fund losses. Novices who haven't got the money, stop staring at LP's money bag. Many LP families have no surplus grain, and rich LP people have no confidence. It is basically impossible to engage in a blind fund pool.
Change careers as soon as possible, or go to work in the head fund, or go to a listed company to mix a secretary or general manager. After the registration system, the door to listing is a little bigger than before.
As for the investment direction, the farther away from consumption, the better. What catering, snacks, milk tea, clothing, hotels, these industries bear the brunt of the economic recession.
We should be close to the country and look at high-end equipment, military industry, new energy, domestic substitution, specialization and novelty, all of which are supported by national policies and orders. Compared with the people, the country still has more grain and grass in its hands. When doing business, people should go high and seek wealth.
5. High net worth individuals
Here refers to people who have accumulated wealth and have little work to do at ordinary times. The safest thing to say is this group of people, who have prepared all the food in advance.
However, if you are not a fish, you know the pain of fish. Rich people also have the sufferings of rich people. Do you think that some properties in your hand have great discount value compared with previous years? Stock funds, are you afraid to watch? I was thinking that I almost fell off the sky list, and now I can't see the taillights.
However, you still have to invest in assets, copy them if they fall badly, and wait for the next cycle if they are trapped. It is better to cut the leeks of the rich than to cut the leeks of the retail investors. After all, the marginal effect of wealth of the rich is relatively low.
In this world, the low-key should be low-key, and don't think that you can be willful if you have money. Wealth comes from society and will eventually return to society. People just keep it for a while.
When everyone's life is hard, are you still extravagant? Not afraid of jealousy? In case of emergency, the existing wealth may not guarantee your life.
Never have an improper idea of tax avoidance. The focus in the future is to check this group of people. It is necessary to cut costs. I used to go skiing in St Moritz, but now I can go to Yabuli, and spending money at home can be regarded as supporting the country to tide over the difficulties. While doing a good job in inheriting family fortune, it is especially beneficial for the rich to give some charity, accumulate some good news and ease social contradictions.
6. Migrant workers
Although this mountain is as high as that one. There are basically no mountains now, both inside and outside the city are similar. If you have a stable job, you should be grateful and work hard. Don't put too much hope on annual salary increase and year-end bonus. The boss took the risk and guaranteed your basic salary, which is also good. You force him, he becomes a migrant worker, and you don't even have this salary.
Charge more in your spare time, master several skilled sideline skills, and be a wily rabbit with three caves. Don't take successful courses, read more professional books.
Save more, invest less, and don't buy stocks. Don't pay attention to those investments that claim to earn more than 5% interest. Investment properties in non-first-tier cities should be realized as soon as possible, and impulsive consumption is refused, and overdraft and loan consumption are not allowed. Moonlight is equivalent to streaking on a snowy day and will soon freeze to death. Winter won't pass so quickly.
Going to work honestly, not cheating, and thanking fate before going to work every day can balance the mentality and ease the mood.
7. People in the system
These years have been very hard, and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation is combined with various assessments. After all, one country is relatively stable. However, the times are different, the industrial upgrading is accelerated, and the land finance is exhausted. Life in a small place will become more and more difficult, and the system is not a safe.
Don't leave the system easily to start a business. Although the income within the system is not high, it is better than stability. Individual places are in arrears with wages, but they will not be in arrears.
Usually strengthen your self-cultivation, accumulate good reputation, don't do anything out of line, listen to the organization and command, as long as you have patience, it's your turn to go up.
Try to avoid things that may cause contradictions, and a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall; It is good to support enterprises as much as possible. Without corporate tax payment, there would be no fiscal revenue. It is good for the government and enterprises to establish good relations, whether public or private.
8. Intermediary services such as finance, lawyers, accountants and real estate.
Thank god, you are employed by a client. It's not easy to afford such an intermediary customer these days. Seriously responsible for the things entrusted by customers, not fooling customers, not talking about agency fees, and giving customers profits is also a way to maintain their own business.
Be diligent in your legs and go out to run more; Sweet mouth, do a good job in personal relationship with customers, maybe one day you will go to work in someone else's enterprise.
9, individual industrial and commercial households
Be careful, be careful, be careful again, and don't open a shop unless you have to. It may open today and close tomorrow, which is a risk that small self-employed people can't afford.
When the consumer industry is cold, the self-employed will have no good business. Do what you can, do business without borrowing money, leave enough food for half a year, and be prepared to make no money for half a year no matter what you do.
10, students and fresh graduates
Stop complaining about online courses. If you take it, others will take it. Why can you still get grades? It's not an online class, it's people. If you stay at home, you should read more books, not only textbooks, but also extracurricular books. When you step into the society, you will find that you have more things outside the classroom.
The number of college graduates is increasing year by year, but the number of bosses is decreasing year by year. Take the exam if you can, and go to graduate school if you have good family conditions.
Don't be picky about fresh graduates who have no resources at home. A job is better than nothing. It is most important to accumulate experience first. The first job is not necessarily the job that you will always do in the future. Don't always wait for something better. When the waves come up, you will become waves before being photographed on the beach.
1 1, retirees
There's not much you can do. The most important thing is to keep healthy. The economic situation will affect the fiscal revenue. More and more people retire, fewer and fewer people pay, and the pressure of medical insurance and social security is increasing. If you are in good health, you will not drag your child down for the winter and avoid increasing the medical burden.
12, shareholder
It is said that Newton turned to be a physicist after failing in stock trading, and Churchill turned to be prime minister after losing money in stock trading.
Put down the stock and become a Buddha.