Why is the weather forecast sometimes inaccurate?

With the continuous improvement of atmospheric sounding methods and weather forecasting methods, the overall accuracy of weather forecasting can reach 8%, but people still feel that the weather forecast is not accurate. As for why the weather forecast is sometimes inaccurate, there are several main reasons, except that some weather phenomena, such as tornadoes, hail and thunderstorms, have a short time from generation to decline, which makes forecasters unable to make forecasts. First of all, meteorological science is a young science. Although with the development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of atmospheric detection methods in the past 1 years, human's understanding of the laws of atmospheric movement is deepening, there are still many mysteries about the atmosphere closely related to human beings that have not been known by human beings, and our understanding is far from fully understanding the objective laws of atmospheric movement. In addition, the weather is the response of multi-factor atmospheric factors, and today's forecasting tools can not truly and perfectly reflect its actual situation. Many factors that should be considered are not or cannot be considered, such as the interaction between radiation and clouds, the complex process of water vapor phase transition, and the uneven physical characteristics of the ground surface. There are hundreds of numerical forecasting models, and there are dozens of models used for operational forecasting. With the deepening of understanding, new parameters will be introduced to describe the atmospheric movement in more detail, and the atmospheric models will become more and more realistic. However, various simplifications have to be made in solving differential equations, and the accuracy and density of detection data are insufficient, which makes it difficult for the results of numerical weather forecasting to completely and objectively reflect the weather changes. At the same time, we should also clearly realize that the specific things and phenomena in nature are the same as inevitability and contingency. The purpose of people's understanding is to find "the inherent inevitability and regularity of opening up a path for themselves in contingency" Because inevitability is a definite trend in the development of things, it is inevitable under certain conditions, so it has its predictability. However, any kind of phenomenon has its uncertain factors, which is the uncertain tendency in the development of things, so it shows its unpredictability. Understanding this point is of great significance for correctly understanding and using weather forecast. With the progress of society, the development of economy and the improvement of people's quality of life, weather forecasting has attracted more and more attention from the public. People expect more accurate forecasts, so it is easier to focus on relatively few inaccurate forecasts and take more accurate forecasts for granted.