How was the pseudoscience "earthquake cloud" popularized in those days?
The "earthquake cloud" has always existed among the people, but it was later carried forward as a "theory", which was greatly contributed by the mayor of Japan, Tazaburo Kenta.
Kenta Tazaburo used to be the mayor of Naraichi. It should be emphasized that he has no professional background in geology or meteorology.
Kenta Tazaburo (the picture comes from his book Earthquake Cloud)
Since the 194s, Kenta Tazaburo began to popularize the "earthquake cloud theory". He said, "On June 26th, the 23rd year of Showa, an abnormal cloud appeared over Naraichi, which was like a long black snake in color and shape and spanned the east-west direction. I made a sensation when I predicted that there would be an earthquake. Two days later, a major earthquake occurred in Fukui, 16 kilometers from Nara. "
(Note: At 5: 14 p.m. on June 28th, 1948, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck Ping Ye, Fukui, Japan, killing 3,895 people. Fukui was almost devastated. )
The ruins after the Fukui earthquake (the picture comes from the Internet)
Tetsuzaburo named this kind of cloud as an earthquake cloud, and said that two days before the Tangshan earthquake in China, an earthquake cloud appeared in Kyushu.
"Like splitting the sky in two" earthquake clouds (picture from the Internet)
Kaneda Tazaburo used the method of observing earthquake clouds to predict earthquakes for more than 3 years, claiming to have predicted three earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in Japan in 1948 and two earthquakes in 1979.
in the 198s, he co-wrote the book Earthquake Clouds with Dajue Zhenguo of Kyushu University and Lu Dajiong of Institute of Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, which was published in China in 1981.
the 198s was the golden age of "earthquake cloud" in China. At that time, China had just finished a crazy age, and the scientific community was in a hurry; The fear and grief left by the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 in China are too deep, and the whole country is eager to find a way to predict the earthquake.
Tangshan earthquake in p>1976 (picture from the Internet)
Therefore, the "earthquake cloud theory" was widely circulated in China, and even stepped into the scientific community in China. In 1981, Lu Dajiong published the paper "Observation of Earthquake Clouds" in Science Bulletin, and in 1982, he published the book "Earthquake Signs and Clouds".
The enthusiasm of the people is even higher. The Japanese have established the "Earthquake Prediction Club", and China has also established the "China Earthquake Prediction and Clouds Research Association".
However, the "earthquake cloud theory" has never been accepted by the mainstream scientific community. With the development of scientific cognition, professionals in geology or meteorology have either euphemistically or directly refuted it.
the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has clearly stated that the appearance of some form of cloud before the earthquake is not necessarily related to the earthquake. China Meteorological Bureau once said that "there is no sufficient fact to prove that there is an inherent correlation between earthquakes and weather, and there is no evidence to predict earthquakes through satellite cloud images". The "earthquake cloud theory" gradually disappeared from serious journals and publications.
But the "earthquake cloud" still has a vast and deep soil among the people. So far, many people still believe that earthquakes can be predicted by looking at clouds, and some folk "earthquake cloud experts" are still unswervingly publishing their own news of predicting earthquakes by looking at clouds, and have a certain number of believers.
what is an "earthquake cloud"?
in 198s, some published "research on seismic clouds" thought that there were three types of seismic clouds: banded, radial and interference fringe, and attached photos.
Looking back today, we can still recognize these "earthquake clouds" despite their age and blurred photos. In fact, there are corresponding species and genera in the scientific classification of clouds, and they are very common.
For example, "banded seismic clouds" are actually stratocumulus lenticularis or lenticular cumulus clouds.
The "banded seismic cloud" photographed in that year (Preliminary Discussion on Seismic Cloud, Nature Magazine, 1986)
Another example is the "radial seismic cloud", which is actually a convergent cumulus cloud.
The "radial seismic cloud" photographed in that year (Preliminary Discussion on Seismic Cloud, Nature Magazine, 1986)
Another example is the "interference stripe seismic cloud", which is actually a wavy high-level cloud.
The "interference stripe seismic cloud" photographed in those years (Preliminary Discussion on Seismic Cloud, Nature Magazine, 1986)
If the "seismic cloud research" in the 198s tried to restrict and separate the "seismic cloud" by some scientific methods, now, when the "seismic cloud" has completely withdrawn from the scientific community, the current folk "seismic cloud"
They refer to all "weird" clouds as earthquake clouds, and "weird" is a subjective word. What is weird and what is not weird? There is no objective standard at all.
For example, on the afternoon of February 17th, 216, this cloud appeared in Wuyuan, Jiangxi Province, which was described as an earthquake cloud, causing a panic, but it was actually a wavy stratocumulus cloud.
The wavy stratocumulus in Wuyuan, Jiangxi Province (picture from the Internet)
On January 7, 21, Weifang was also said to have an earthquake cloud, which was still a wavy stratocumulus.
Weifang undulated stratocumulus (picture from the Internet)
On July 28th this year, the "earthquake cloud" in Changchun's circle of friends was actually altocumulus translucidus.
altocumulus translucidus, Changchun (picture from the Internet)
Now, if you open the search software and search for "photos of earthquake clouds", you will see all kinds of altocumulus clouds, stratocumulus clouds, cirrus clouds and cirrocumulus ... and they are actually the most common clouds in the sky (if you often look up at clouds).
There is even a track cloud (commonly known as "airplane pull line") formed by the water vapor ejected by the airplane, which is also called "earthquake cloud". Is it a sign of an earthquake that the airplane flies by?
Track clouds (picture from the Internet)
There are various "earthquake clouds" on the Internet, mostly altocumulus clouds or stratocumulus clouds, because these two kinds of clouds are easy to form wavy, flocculent, transparent, radial, pod-like and other "weird" shapes; In addition, sometimes in the evening or morning, the color of sunset or sunrise is dyed, which is even more suspected as "a vision in the sky."
high hit rate of "earthquake cloud"
Of course, "earthquake cloud experts" can last forever, and it's not that the waves get a hollow reputation. People still have a set of confusing "evidence", which is "high hit rate".
For example, they said:
Three days before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake in China, a "rope-like seismic cloud" appeared in Linyi, Shandong;
A week before the Ya 'an earthquake in China and Sichuan, an "earthquake cloud" appeared over Hangzhou.
On June 1st, 28, the day before the bashi channel earthquake, an "earthquake cloud" appeared in Hefei.
......
5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake (pictures from the Internet)
When you talk about three or five examples, most people are fooled, thinking that they have hit so many times, even if they don't believe them all, they can't believe them all.
so, why can you hit it many times?
in fact, it's not surprising that it's broken.
I have been watching several well-known "earthquake cloud experts" on the Internet, and their way is to post a "weird" cloud first and declare it as an earthquake cloud. After that, in a time range from a few days to a month, an earthquake occurred anywhere in the world, which was considered a "hit"!
the earthquake cloud in the eyes of "experts" (the picture comes from the internet)
This accuracy is too rough, it is simply a overlord clause, and it is difficult to miss it.
according to this accuracy, the weather forecast can be changed to "it will rain somewhere in the world today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow or even in a month", and the accuracy can soar to 1% minute by minute, making it difficult to drop it. There are also many fans of "earthquake cloud experts" who tout that they are "more accurate than the weather forecast"-which really makes the weather forecasters cry.
some people say, can an earthquake compare with rain? Rain is a common occurrence, and earthquakes are small probability events!
You see, many people always think that earthquakes are rare, and it is a divine operator to "hit" several times. In fact, this is a misunderstanding. In fact, earthquakes happen every day.
according to statistics, there are more than 5 million earthquakes every year in the world, and tens of thousands of earthquakes occur every day. Let's not count those small earthquakes, just count destructive earthquakes of magnitude ≥5, which occur 1 times a year around the world, almost two or three times a day.
In other words, anyone who casually points his finger at the sky and makes a calculation by pinching his finger casually says, "There will be an earthquake of magnitude 5 or above in the world today", and he is sure to win. What's more, the "earthquake cloud expert" has relaxed the time to less than one month.
Really, the "earthquake cloud experts" call themselves "multiple hits", which is all modest. In fact, they are "every hit" and will hit every test.
"theoretical basis" of seismic clouds
"seismic cloud experts" have also put forward some "theoretical basis", trying to prove the "scientific nature" of seismic clouds from the perspectives of physics, atmospheric science and geology.
The ideas are similar, that is to say, in the "pregnant period" before the earthquake, the earth stores a lot of energy, which will leak out of the ground from the fault cracks and escape into the air in the form of geothermal, fluctuation, oscillation, infrasound, electromagnetic radiation, high-energy water vapor and charged particles, which will affect the shape of clouds.
At first glance, these professional words are quite bluffing, but they can't stand scientific verification and scrutiny.
The earth has been densely covered with various monitoring instruments from the surface to the high altitude, which can accurately monitor energy, fluctuation, oscillation, water vapor, infrasound and electromagnetic radiation.
if before the earthquake, they really emerged from the ground, then reached the sky, and then reflected in the form of clouds, how could all these instruments be indifferent and unable to monitor any abnormal values? Instead, we have to wait for them to go to the clouds and then be recognized by the human eye?
These questions have been raised many times, but "earthquake cloud experts" always turn a blind eye.
Psychological Focus Effect
The "earthquake cloud theory" can gain trust among the people, and it also stems from the psychological needs of the public.
When people encounter a major disaster such as an earthquake, they often recall various details before the event, and tend to think that these details are "rare and unusual". In fact, these "rare and abnormal" often happen, but people usually don't deliberately observe and remember them. This is called "psychological focusing effect". The same is true of those seemingly weird "earthquake clouds".
Seemingly weird "earthquake clouds" (picture from the Internet)
Corrugated stratocumulus, altocumulus translucidus, flocculent altocumulus … these are actually very common and common clouds, which appear in the sky all over the world every day. But when it happens to appear before an earthquake, it will be given a special meaning of "omen".
In the face of such terrible and sudden natural disasters as earthquakes, human beings are too small and powerless. Therefore, throughout the ages, people hope to have a simple and direct method (such as looking at clouds) to predict the occurrence of earthquakes in advance and give people a chance to escape bad luck.
It is precisely because this psychological demand of human beings is met that the "earthquake cloud theory" will always have followers.