Does the Chinese stock market itself have rules to follow?

The first rule of A-shares: when you buy it, it will fall; when you sell it, it will rise

No matter which A-share, as long as you buy it, it will fall if you keep it, and as long as you sell it, it will definitely rise. Friends around me have tried it repeatedly!

National Day Rules for A-shares: The accuracy of predicting October’s market based on September’s trend is 70%

According to historical data statistics, it is found that the A-share market’s performance in October is highly consistent with its performance in September. Positive correlation: If there is a sharp rise in September, the market will mostly rise sharply in October. Among the September market prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in the past 13 years, the gains in 2007, 2006, and 2009 ranked among the top three, with gains of 6.39%, 5.65%, and 4.19% respectively. The corresponding October market prices of that year also surged by 7.25%, 7.25%, and 4.19% respectively. 4.88% and 7.79%; on the contrary, in the years when the Shanghai Stock Index has experienced a larger decline in September, the probability of a sharp decline in October is also higher.

The Shanghai Stock Index rose and fell 9 times in September and October in 2013. Statistics were made on the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index in September and October in the 13 years from 2001 to 2013, and it was found that the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index in September and October during the 13 years showed a strong positive correlation, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index rose in September, and it was easy to follow in October. It can be said that "the market situation in October depends on the situation in September". In 13 years, the Shanghai Stock Index rose and fell at the same time 9 times in September and October, with a probability of 69.23%.

From the perspective of specific statistics, the rise in the same direction is as follows: in September 2006, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 5.65%, and in October the Shanghai Stock Index rose 4.88%; in September 2007, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 6.39%, and in October the Shanghai Stock Index rose 6.39%. It rose 7.25% and hit a record high of 6124.04 points in A-share history; in September 2009, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 4.19%, and the increase expanded to 7.79% in October; in September 2010, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 0.64%, and in October it rose 12.17% on heavy volume. The decline in the same direction is as follows: in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2008, the Shanghai Stock Index fell by 3.78%, 5.1%, 3.86%, 0.62% and 4.32% respectively. In October of the corresponding years, the Shanghai Stock Index also fell by 4.29%, 4.69%, 1.38%, 5.43% and 24.63%.

In years without rising or falling in the same direction, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 3.64% in September 2013 and fell 1.52% in October; the Shanghai Stock Index rose 1.89% in September 2012 and fell 0.83% in October; The Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.11% in the month and rose 4.62% in October.

Analysts believe that in September 2014 (as of September 26), the Shanghai Stock Index rose 5.89% monthly. If the above-mentioned 13-year statistical pattern is followed, the Shanghai Stock Index will easily follow the rise in October this year. The current Shanghai Stock Index rose 5.89% in September this year, second only to the 6.39% rise in September 2007 in 13 years, and slightly higher than the 5.65% rise in September 2006. In October 2006, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by 4.88%.

Laws of the Two Sessions of A shares: The performance of the market during the Two Sessions is generally relatively "flat"

Two Sessions According to historical statistics, A shares did not have an overwhelming performance during the Two Sessions in the past fourteen years. There is an upward trend, so from a probability perspective, the two sessions do not necessarily mean an increase for A shares. However, this does not mean that the market for the two sessions will be absent. It may be presented as policy beneficiary stocks.

According to historical statistics, during the 14 National Two Sessions from 2000 to the present, A shares rose 8 times and fell 6 times. Although there have been more increases, the advantage is not obvious, and it cannot be judged from a probability that the market will tend to rise during the two sessions. Moreover, in the five two sessions since 2009, the market fell three times and rose twice.

Regardless of the number of rises and falls, looking only at the magnitude of the rises and falls, the performance of the market during the two sessions can be described as relatively "flat". Among the fourteen two sessions, the longest was 16 days in 2008, and the shortest was 11 days. In this span of at least more than a week, there were 8 times when the market rose or fell by less than 3%, there were two times when the market rose or fell between 3% and 4*, and there were 4 times when the market rose or fell by more than 4%. Therefore, overall, the market was relatively stable during the two sessions, and the increases and decreases were not too large.

The pattern of A-shares closing in yin and closing in yang and the bull-turning-to-bear pattern

After the Spring Festival, the green year line closes in yin, and the green year line closes in yang after the Spring Festival. Every time A shares adjust beyond the 20% threshold, it becomes a bear market.

The rule of A-shares turning back three times in one step

If "turning back three times in one step" is the common practice of A-shares, then the average cycle of four years is its unique cyclical law. From the historical inspection of the A-share market for more than 20 years, we can find a special rule about the trend: that is, it cycles around every four years. For example, after the market peaked in 1993, it experienced four years of downturn and fluctuation, and then ushered in the May 19 market in 1997; and the market continued to rise for nearly four years from the May 19 market, reaching a high of 2245 in 2001; and this time After the high point, the market experienced another bear market in the four years from 2001 to 2005, and finally ushered in the bull market of 2006-07. From the high of 3478 in 2009 to December 2013, the market has adjusted and declined for four years. It is completing a historical cycle of reincarnation, which indicates that historic changes are coming.

Objectively speaking, both domestic and foreign stock markets follow certain rules. Although the bear market is sometimes very long, it will eventually end. The cycle of bull and bear is both reincarnation and an inevitable pattern of market trends, with rise and fall alternating in a spiral development. Counting from the high point in 2007, the adjustment has lasted for more than 6 years, far exceeding the historical limit. The next boom is brewing, and the market itself has accumulated upward momentum. It is a high probability event to get out of the downturn in the future!

A-share World Cup rules: The stock market will generally fall

During the 1994 World Cup, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell from 527 points to 413 points, a drop of 21.63%.

During the 1998 World Cup, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell from 1,422 points to 1,360 points.

During the 2002 World Cup, the Shanghai Stock Index fell from a low of 1,515 points to 1,455 points. Finally, with the "blowout" on June 24, the stock index reached 1,700 points.

During the 2006 World Cup, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell from 1,695 points to 1,512 points.

Historical data shows that the four-year World Cup is a "falling curse" for global stock markets. US SPX historical data shows that in the past 14 months when the World Cup was held, the market rose only three times, and the historical average increase in the month was -1.65%, significantly lower than the average increase of 0.31% in June over the past 56 years.

A-share regulatory rules

There is a very interesting phenomenon in A-shares! As long as the government regulates the market, the market will fall; as long as the government leaves it alone, A-shares will skyrocket!

A-share's law of inertia

The principle is the same as Newton's law of inertia. The characteristic of an object keeping its state of motion and direction unchanged is called inertia. In the stock market, if the stock price is rising, then if there is no big change, the stock price will continue to go up; if the stock price is falling, then if there is no big change, the stock price will continue to go down. This is because when the stock price trends upward, most people are optimistic about the market outlook, so those who have bought are reluctant to sell, and those who have not bought are rushing to buy. This makes the supply of stocks exceed demand, and it should naturally rise; on the contrary, the trend is towards When prices fall, most people are not optimistic about the market outlook, so those who have bought are rushing to sell, and those who have not bought are less afraid to buy. This makes the supply of stocks exceed demand, and naturally they will continue to fall.

A-share stocks must go against the rules at extremes

If they rise too much, they will naturally fall; if they fall too much, they will naturally rise. This is the same principle as the opening line of "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms": if we divide for a long time, we will unite, and if we unite for a long time, we will divide. I believe everyone knows how to use the KDJ indicator. Among the KDJ indicators, there is a very important function, which is overbought and oversold. Overbought means that it was very popular at that time. Does it mean that it can be bought? Of course not, overbought is often the time to sell; on the contrary, oversold is often the time to buy. A phenomenon in the stock market also fully embodies this principle-risks come out when they rise, and opportunities come out when they fall.

The Feng Shui of A-shares takes turns

We are not sure whether the overseas stock markets other than the A-share market are like this, but what is certain is that the Feng Shui of the A-share market always takes turns. Turned. A big market trend often has four stages, which are: (1) a small number of sectors or individual stocks start; (2) the market enters a general rise; (3) stocks that have not yet risen start to rise broadly; (4) leading sectors or individual stocks in the early stage Adjustment begins; (5) the market enters a general decline; (6) all remaining stocks enter a decline. Therefore, if you are doing stocks in the A-share market, you can still get good returns if you fail to seize the leading stocks in advance, but if you can seize the complementary growth stocks belatedly.

Don't be anxious. If you are anxious, you will often chase after the leading stocks that have risen sharply and are about to fall, and miss the stocks that are ready to make up for the gains later. According to believers: God is fair.

A shares go against the rules of the public

Old stock investors who are good at observing all know this rule, that is, when most people in the market are optimistic, the market may not rise; on the contrary, When most people in the market are bearish, the market may not necessarily fall. Why is this? Technical analysis enthusiasts have always claimed that the market is always right; fundamental analysis enthusiasts have always believed that the market is always wrong; portfolio theory enthusiasts believe that the market is sometimes right and sometimes wrong. When analyzing the stock market, there are three completely different conclusions, which fully proves the uncertainty of the market.

The oscillation pattern of A-share cycles

This pattern is very interesting. When the daily trend is upward, if the weekly trend is also upward, then the short-term trend will be quite strong; when the daily trend is upward and the weekly trend is downward, then the market will only have a small rebound. What is the principle? This is because when the weekly trend is upward, the market or individual stocks have gathered considerable popularity, and the market's supply and demand relationship is in short supply, so the daily rise will be easier; on the contrary, if the weekly trend is downward, it means that Judging from the mid- to long-term trend, the popularity is bleak. So, even if there are people rushing to buy in the short term, which makes the short-term trend stronger, if the mid- to long-term supply and demand relationship cannot be changed, the market will continue to move downward. By the same token, we can conclude that the daily trend is downward, the weekly trend is upward, and the daily trend is downward, and the weekly trend is upward. To sum up, we can pay attention to the following two things: first, the daily line is upward and the weekly line is upward; second, the daily line is downward and the weekly line is upward. There are also two forms that we should abandon: first, the daily line is up and the weekly line is down; second, the daily line is down and the weekly line is down.

A-share static and dynamic intersection rules

There are no stocks that keep rising, and there are no stocks that keep falling. After a stock has risen for a certain period of time, it always takes a while to adjust, so as to wash out the unsteady retail investors and give yourself enough time to adjust your positions; after a stock has fallen for a certain period of time, you always have to make adjustments. Take a moment to trade sideways so that greedy retail investors can take over for you. This is actually the same as when we run. We run non-stop, and at the end we run directly into the coffin. And if we run and stop, as long as we have food, sleep, and a place to deal with internal emergencies, it is not impossible to run around the world. possible. The same is true for the stock market.

A-share rules: A bull market eliminates low-priced stocks

In the early stage of a bull market, low-priced stocks must be eliminated, especially 1-yuan stocks. The elimination of 1-yuan stocks is often used as a market standard to distinguish between bulls and bears. . The characteristic of a bull market is to eliminate low-priced stocks first. In 2007, it was said that 3-yuan stocks, 5-yuan stocks, and 10-yuan stocks would be eliminated. At that time, the bull market was over. Looking at it now, it is the early stage of the bull market. It is easy to make money by speculating on low-priced stocks. Every bull market will eliminate low-priced stocks. This is the law of A-shares, and it has not changed to this day. All stocks will rise in a bull market. This has been the case in bull markets in the past. After growth stocks rise, low-priced stocks rise. It is a normal phenomenon and a good thing. Steel and ST stocks are making up for the rise, which shows that the market is becoming more popular. The trading behavior of investors is that they like cheap things. This tradition still exists. Generally speaking, the rise of low-priced stocks such as steel is an outstanding performance in the late stage of the market.

There have been two clear cases of A-shares wiping out 1-yuan stocks. One was in September 2005, and the other was in February 2009. After these two points, there was a wave of bull markets. Now A-shares The disappearance of 1 yuan stocks in the stock market again, does this mean that A shares will usher in a slow bull? The upward fluctuation of A shares is a long-term trend, and the core principle is that the assets of the whole society are allocated from real estate to equity. On the other hand, there are still very few A-share companies that can generate long-term returns for investors. 2,000 out of 3,000 companies are unprofitable, so it is easy to be over-speculated in the stock market. At this time, if the economic data is not good, the stock market will ebb, but after all, there is so much total capital, and investment demand is still very strong. When the market falls to a certain level or the supply of stocks increases, it will rise again. I think A-shares will fluctuate upward in the long term and slowly move upward, and short- and medium-term fluctuations are inevitable.

The current decline in the market is the characteristic of a bull market, and the characteristic of a bull market is a slow rise and sharp decline, so bull markets often have big negative lines, and bear markets often have big positive lines. It's hard to say. There are very few slow bull markets in A-shares.

Generally speaking, at the end of a market stage, low-priced stocks and junk stocks will be traded. This has been the case historically.

Since the beginning of this year, first of all, low-priced stocks have been subject to speculation. Now low-priced stocks have become a hot spot in the market again. In the medium term, will the market of low-priced stocks continue? There will be 2 yuan wiped out in the future. Are there such phenomena as stocks and 3-yuan stocks? Nowadays, the macro fundamentals are not that good, but the supply of stocks is increasing, and the market should not be so crazy, and it will still be a slow bull trend that is oscillating upward. Maybe low-price stocks haven’t been completely sold out yet, and it’s still very early. During the bull market in 2007, many low-price stocks doubled, tripled, or quintupled. Nowadays, low-price stocks generally rise by 30% or 50%, and better ones only double. The market preference is at the beginning of the bull market. Low-priced stocks, such as cyclical stocks; once the market goes up, cyclical stocks will quickly reverse, and now cyclical stocks are not performing so well. It is too early to say that low-priced stocks will be eliminated. It may be possible in the medium to long term, but there are risks in the short term. It is possible that 2 yuan stocks and 3 yuan stocks will be eliminated later.

Every time the low-price stock market exploded in history, it was inseparable from policy stimulation, such as the shareholding reform in 2005, the four trillion investment in 2009, and this year’s state-owned enterprise reform. Taken together, you How to judge the market? Can you deeply analyze the policy and financial situation of the market? The policy still supports the rise of the stock market, but it does not support a rapid, explosive, and irrational rise, but supports a volatile upward trend. The rise of slow bulls. In the long run, funds are still flowing in, but the prerequisite for inflow is that there are enough listed companies that can produce reliable money-making effects. If everyone is taking a gamble, then this round of rise will not last long.

China’s stock market has been bearish for too long. For example, the P/E of bank stocks is only three or four times, but their performance is very good, and the overall valuation of the stock market is very low; now the economic data is not good, but the stock market may make decisions before the economic data. Reflection; There is also the decline in risk-free interest rates and the decline in government bond yields. Many investment products have seen the money-making effect of the stock market. Now more and more investors are opening accounts, and more and more funds are entering the stock market. This is a positive feedback. . The market will rotate. If you speculate in small-cap stocks and low-price stocks now, you will definitely speculate in blue-chip stocks in the future. When you speculate in blue-chip stocks, the index will rise.

At this point in time, neither pessimism nor optimism is advisable. We cannot be too optimistic or too pessimistic. On May 30, 2007, the index had already doubled by N times. The index had risen from more than 1,000 points to more than 3,000 points. Many small-cap stocks had increased by 5 times or 10 times. Now small-cap stocks have only increased by 30%. It's still very early, so Shin Wan's statement is wrong. Shenwan sees that the current economic data is not good, but when the economic data is good, stocks sometimes fall. Is the economic data in the United States good? But the U.S. stock market has risen a lot. Our current economic data is not good, but the stock market may also be bullish. If it were not optimistic, how could there be so much money entering the market now? Shenyin & Wanguo started from Judging from economic data that the "May 30" market situation in 2007 will repeat itself is untenable.

The law of reincarnation between A shares and inflation

Analyzing the relationship between A shares and inflation in the past 20 years can be said to be clear at a glance: the CPI data in 1990 was 3.1%, and the CPI data in 1991 was 3.1%. The CPI data in 1992 was 6.4%. From 1990 to the beginning of 1993, inflation showed a progressive trend from mild inflation to severe inflation. A-shares experienced two rounds of surges. The Shanghai Composite Index rose in May 1992. It reached 1429 points and reached 1558 points in February 1993. Inflation runs in the same direction as the stock market cycle. Obviously, moderate inflation is conducive to the operation of the stock market.

Inflation began to soar in 1993. The CPI data in 1993 was 14.7%. From 1993 to 1994, it was in the stage of double-digit hyperinflation. In 1994, the CPI data was as high as 21.7%. During the same period, A-shares were in a bear market. Cycle, at the end of July 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a historical low of 325 points. Obviously, inflation and the stock market cycle run in the opposite direction; subsequently, the CPI data in 1995 was 17.1%. From 1994 to the beginning of 1996, the inflation rate was in the early stage of decline. , the stock market is also in the decline after rebounding, and A-shares have begun to bottom out. The situation of A-shares is similar now.

The CPI data in 1996 was 8.3%, and the CPI data began to fall below double digits. Starting from 512 points in the Shanghai Composite Index in January 1996, A shares began to enter a bull market. From 1996 to 1997, A shares Stocks experienced huge gains. From 1998 to 1999, A-shares consolidated sideways. From 1999 to 2001, A-shares continued their bullish tail. During this period, it was no longer inflation but deflation.

Assume that CPI data below 0 is deflation, 3% is moderate inflation, more than 5% is severe inflation, and more than 10% is hyperinflation. Based on the above three experiences, it can be concluded that the stock market and inflation are in The mild inflation stage is a positive correlation, and the rest are negative correlations, that is, when inflation is high, the stock market is low; when inflation is low, the stock market is high.

This rule does not apply from 2001 to 2005. During this period, the CPI data in 2001 was 0.7%, the CPI data in 2002 was -0.8%, the CPI data in 2003 was 1.2%, and in 2004 The annual CPI data was 3.9%, and the CPI data in 2005 was 1.8%. However, during this period, A-shares were in a bear market. The key issues were the reduction of state-owned shares and the high valuation of A-shares.

After the launch of the share-trading reform in 2005, the aforementioned laws of the stock market and inflation were once again fulfilled. The CPI data in 2006 was 1.5%, and the CPI data in 2007 was 4.8%. In the past two years, A-shares were in a bull market upward channel. ; In October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a peak of 6124 points. Then in 2008, the CPI data was 5.9%, and the highly valued A-shares plummeted; in 2009, the CPI data was -0.7%, and the A-share Shanghai Composite Index rose by no means inferior to that year. In the bull market in 2000, the CPI data in 2010 was 4.6%, and A-shares were in a sideways wait-and-see pattern. Once this year's CPI data breaks through the 5% moderate line, A-shares will enter a bearish path of slow decline.

Combined with the valuation rules of A-shares, the rules of the stock market and inflation can be clearer: when A-shares are in a low valuation stage, experiencing a cycle of deflation and mild inflation, the probability of A-shares entering a bull market is extremely high; when A-shares In the high valuation stage, the stock market will be driven by the inherent valuation rules and has little to do with inflation; when inflation exceeds the 5% moderate line, A-shares are basically in a weak state.

The current valuation of A-shares is in line with the Shanghai Composite Index's 998 points in 2005 and the Shanghai Composite Index's 1,664 points in 2008. It belongs to a low valuation area. Compare May 1992 to January 1996 and 2001 The four-year time pattern of the two bear markets from June to June 2005 is exactly four years from October 2007 to the present. House prices, as an important leading indicator of inflation, have now reached a clear turning point. Once inflation drops back to the 5% moderate line If the following and is consolidated, the A-share bull market can be expected

A-share Olympic rules: fall most of the time

During the 5 Summer Olympics in history, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded cumulative losses 4 times fell. In other words, the opening of the Summer Olympics is like a "magic curse". The Olympic situation has always been a hot topic in the A-share market. Whenever the Olympic time comes, research reports on the "Olympic sector" will be overwhelming. However, it is not easy to grasp the market trend of the "Olympic sector". During the five Summer Olympics since the birth of A-shares at the end of 1990, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by -11.98%, 2.55%, -3.5%, -3.48% and -11.82% respectively. Therefore, it is no wonder that there is an Olympic "curse" in the market. One thing to say.

The short, medium and long-term rules of A-shares

The stock market is where most investors dream. It will not always be so weak, and it also has its own rules. Therefore, summarizing the short-term, medium-term and long-term patterns of the Shanghai Stock Index may be helpful for future operating ideas:

1. Short-term patterns

The Shanghai Stock Index has been falling all the way in the past three months. The basic path is: "The external market fell sharply. The next day we gapped and opened lower, and then covered the gap. However, the rebound momentum was insufficient, and it hit a new low again. Finally, we waited for the next lower gap and opened lower." And this is An effective circular process. Since there has not been any gap left in this area in the past three months, we have reason to believe that for the bulls, every jump and low opening is a short-term intervention point, and the subsequent small counterattacks are also It is the short-term exit position.

2. Mid-term rules

We can find that since the emergence of stock index futures, the range oscillator on the weekly line has a one-to-one corresponding effect on the fluctuations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

Moreover, once the indicator is at the bottom position, although the Shanghai Stock Index it corresponds to lags behind, it will also see a periodic low in the near future. After observing it for a long time, this method is still quite effective. At present, the indicator has begun to move closer to the bottom. Although it may also form passivation for one to two weeks, it is indeed very low. At the same time, let’s go back to the daily chart. If there is to be a decent phased rebound here, then its adjustment amplitude must be as long as the previous wave’s decline. This position is likely to be below 2379 points, but this neckline The line is not far from here. Therefore, in terms of medium-term rules, it is now getting closer and closer to the target level, which can be called the bottom area, but the sign of real effective expansion should be that the Shanghai Stock Index stands above the 30-day moving average.

3. Long-term pattern

If we look back at the previous two big market trends, one was at 998 points and the other was at 1664 points, there is a pattern in these two times, that is All have fallen below the 120-month moving average. And generally it won't fall by a large margin. If it falls for a long time, what will evolve in the future will be a reversal of the historic market. If the time of falling below is not very long, what will evolve in the future should be a rebound-type periodic market. Currently, the 120-month moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index is stuck at 2258 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at more than 2400 points this weekend, so it is very close to leaving the 120-month moving average.

In addition, from the perspective of the annual K-line, the worst situation in the Chinese stock market in the past twenty years has only been two consecutive negative years, and this year is the second annual K-negative line, and it is now The end of September, so if it is a bad situation, it will only weaken until the end of the year, but the probability of stabilizing next year is relatively strong.

This article was first published on other post platforms. The specific time cannot be verified. The views expressed by the author also confirm the laws of the development of China's stock market. Various hidden laws are constantly affecting things. The development trend, the regular characteristics are not obvious in a short period of time, but once it is stretched, this regular feature will show miraculous power. There are no generals who are always victorious in the stock market. You can only stop when things are good and make stable profits. Profit. It's impolite to come and go without reciprocating. How can one walk by the river without getting his shoes wet? Don't you see, those big guys are making profits every day, and there are many people who end up in jail. So we know a truth, there is no general who always wins in the stock market. , take your time, don’t rush.