I am from the Suihua area. Can any meteorological expert help me tell whether this year will be a drought or a flood?
Based on the 2012 annual climate trend prediction and annual scenario analysis, it is believed that the overall climate trend in the province from March to October 2012 is expected to be slightly higher than normal temperature, and the heat conditions during the growing season are close to normal, slightly worse than last year; precipitation Slightly less than normal. From the analysis of the overall meteorological conditions, this year is a good year (compared with the average of the past five years). The main disasters affecting agricultural production in our province include drought in parts of the western and southern parts of the country in spring and periodic low temperatures in late spring; periodic drought in summer and localized floods in midsummer; and early frost in autumn.
General trend of weather and climate
It is expected that the general climate trend of the province from March to October 2012: the temperature is slightly higher than normal, the heat in the growing season is close to normal, slightly worse than last year; the precipitation is slightly less than normal .
Spring: It is expected that the average precipitation in the province this spring will be slightly more than normal. Among them, Daxinganling, Heihe, Qiqihar, Daqing, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, and Qitaihe will have about 10% to 20% more than normal, and other areas will have about 10% to 20% more than normal. 10% to 20% less; the temperature in most parts of the province is slightly higher than normal, with the province's average being about 0.2°C higher than normal. The first spring was slightly higher, and the second spring saw frequent cold air activity, an obvious phased cooling process, normal temperatures, and normal final frost.
Summer: The average summer precipitation in the province is close to normal and slightly less than normal. Among them, southern Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Jiamusi, and Hegang have 0 to 10% more precipitation than normal, and other areas have about 10% less than normal; summer temperature Slightly higher, the province's average is 0.5°C higher than normal.
Autumn: Autumn precipitation in most areas of the province is 10% to 20% less than normal. The temperature in autumn is normally slightly higher, with the province's average being 0.0 to 0.3°C higher than normal, and the first frost is normally slightly earlier.
Agricultural meteorological disaster prediction analysis
1. Soil drought occurred in parts of the west and south in spring. The results of the last moisture measurement before the freeze in 2011 (November 8) showed that most of the soil in the cultivated layer (0-10 cm) in the west and south of 47 counties and cities was dry and had poor bottom moisture. Among them, the soil in 7 counties and cities was dry. It is in a state of severe drought, which has an important impact on the moisture content of the soil after it thaws in spring, increasing the possibility of drought in the cultivated soil in spring. The "poor snow syndrome" since the beginning of winter has resulted in thin snow cover in most areas of our province. As of early February, the snow cover in most agricultural areas of the province was shallow, less than 10 centimeters, including the southern Songnen Plain, western Jixi and Linkou, Boli, and Dongning are not covered by snow, which is not conducive to soil moisture conservation. To sum up, combined with the spring precipitation forecast analysis: since the overall precipitation in spring is mainly slightly more than normal, it is beneficial to alleviate soil drought in autumn and winter last year. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, there is still the possibility of drought continuing and developing in some areas. It is expected that soil drought may occur in some areas in the western and southern parts of our province during the spring sowing period this year.
2． Periodic low temperature in late spring. It is predicted that the periodic cooling process in our province will be obvious in late spring, which will have certain adverse effects on crop sowing and emergence.
3． It is expected that precipitation in our province will be mainly localized in summer, with uneven spatial distribution. Areas with high precipitation are prone to local floods, while areas with low precipitation are more likely to encounter periodic droughts.
4. Summer temperatures are predicted to be slightly higher than normal, but have a downward trend compared with the past two years, so there is a possibility of periodic low temperatures in summer.
5. Based on a comprehensive analysis of meteorological conditions, there is the possibility of local diseases or insect pests of varying degrees.
6. Sudden disasters such as hail and heavy rain may occur locally.
7. Early frost is more likely to occur in autumn.
Analysis of the impact of meteorological conditions on agricultural production
1. Sowing period: Focus on soil drought in some areas in the west and south, which will be detrimental to the timely sowing of field crops and affect the quality of sowing. Secondly, the periodic low temperature in late spring will affect the normal sowing progress and seedling emergence in most areas, which may reduce the seedling emergence rate and affect the effect of one-time sowing to preserve seedlings.
2． Field growth period: The precipitation throughout the summer is close to normal and the temperature is slightly higher. Crops can grow vigorously in most areas. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, which is mainly concentrated in midsummer, there will be periodic droughts or waterlogging in summer as well as local heavy rains, hail, diseases and insect pests and other disasters, which will have certain adverse effects on the normal growth and development of local crops; temperature and There has been a downward trend in the past two years, and there may be periodic low temperatures in summer, which will have a slight delayed impact on crop growth and development. However, this year's meteorological conditions are generally favorable for the growth of field crops.
3． Grain-filling maturity period: In autumn, the temperature is slightly higher, and precipitation in most areas of the province is 10% to 20% less than normal years, which is very beneficial to the grain-filling and maturation of crops. However, the first frost is usually slightly earlier, and it is difficult for late-maturing crops to mature safely.
Agricultural Production Suggestions
It is recommended that this year’s agricultural production deployment arrangements and disaster prevention and reduction should focus on drought resistance, flood prevention and prevention of post-spring low temperatures.
1. It is necessary to fully consider the local accumulated temperate zone and the heat conditions required for crop growth, and select suitable crop varieties based on climate predictions. Although the heat conditions this year are slightly more than normal, the possibility of early frost is higher. Therefore, it is recommended that localities prohibit cross-regional planting, reasonably mix early, mid- and late-maturing varieties, and try not to plant greedy late-maturing crop varieties.
2. Carefully prepare for spring plowing, select seeds, repair agricultural machinery and equipment in advance, clean up the silt in irrigation canals, and seize the favorable weather to carry out land preparation, harrowing, manure delivery and other agricultural activities as soon as possible.
3. It is recommended to do a good job in ensuring spring planting. Arid areas, especially the western and southern areas of our province, should focus on protecting, increasing, and robbing moisture; in the eastern part, attention should be paid to plowing to disperse moisture and increase ground temperature, so as to carry out spring sowing in a timely manner; all regions should also make preparations to prevent low temperatures in the post-spring period. , if necessary, take measures such as covering to prevent low temperatures and ensure normal sowing and emergence of crops.
4. All regions should pay close attention to the weather changes throughout the growing season of crops, strengthen field management, scientific shoveling, and reasonable fertilization to ensure normal growth and development of crops.
5. Our province is prone to disasters such as hail, strong winds, and heavy rains in summer. Where conditions permit, preparations for hail elimination, waterlogging prevention, and periodic drought resistance should be made as early as possible. At the same time, attention should be paid to Good resistance to periodic low temperatures and various agricultural pests and diseases prevention work.