How to learn stock analysis
This article comes from: ideal forum www.55 188.com Author: Blue Dolphin 23 viewed 906 times Original: /viewthread.php? Tid=28 12682 I send this post in the hope of helping beginners to analyze their learning skills, and I also hope that experts or old investors can share their learning experiences and exchange ideas.
Novices must be deeply impressed by the importance of technical analysis to stock trading, because stock critics always carry some concepts of technical analysis in their speeches. In fact, the theoretical basis of technical analysis is probably as follows: random walk theory, volume-price relationship theory, Dow theory, period theory, opposition theory, wave theory, K-line theory, tangent theory and morphology theory.
First, the combined application of K-line theory K-line: single K-line: based on the length of the entity, Yin and Yang, the length of the upper and lower shadow lines, the relationship between the length of the entity and the length of the upper and lower shadow lines, etc. Use multiple K-lines to guess the market: use the relative position of each K-line and Yin and Yang to guess the market.
2. In the theoretical physics of random walking, there are 1 Brownian motions, which refer to the random and irregular motions of molecules. Random walk theory is an extension of Brownian motion. According to this theory, the price of securities is random. For a person who walks aimlessly in a wide square, we don't know which direction he will go next, and there is no relevant information at all. The same is true of the random walk theory of price fluctuation, and there is no law to follow in the following price fluctuation. Random walk theory holds that the fluctuation of securities prices is random, just like a person walking in a big square, where the price will go next is irregular. In the securities market, the price trend is influenced by many factors, and a trivial matter may also have an impact on the market. As can be seen from the actual long-term price chart, the probability of price fluctuation is almost equal. In this sense, for a specific time, it can be considered that the price fluctuation direction is random. The random walk theory has some truth. However, on the other hand, securities prices are not "activists" after all, and securities have their own quality differences and are affected by external factors. The change of price is restricted by some factors. Price fluctuation is not completely irregular, but there should be certain rules, but we have not fully grasped these rules. For example, the overall price index of the stock market is rising, which is a universal law. Random walk theory is one of some people's views on the securities market, and it is still reasonable in some occasions. In the actual market practice, we should pay attention to the existence of random walk theory.
Third, the tangent theory 1, trend analysis trend direction: upward, downward, horizontal (no trend direction) trend type (see Dow theory) 2, support line (resistance line) and pressure line (resistance line)
The support and pressure of stock price movement near a certain price are mainly determined by the chip distribution of investors, the holding cost and the psychological factors of investors. The function of support line and pressure line: to prevent or temporarily prevent the stock price from continuing to move in one direction (it is possible to be broken). Support line and pressure line can be transformed into each other, provided that they are broken through by effective and powerful stock price changes.
The basis for confirming the support line and pressure line: (1) the volume of stock prices in this region; (2) the length of time that the stock price stays in the region; (3) The distance between the appearance time of this support area or pressure area and the current period. -The longer the stock price stays, the greater the accompanying trading volume, and the closer it is to the present, the greater the influence of this support or pressure area on the present, and vice versa.
3. Trend line and tracking line
The function of the trend line: (1) will inhibit future price changes. (2) After the trend line is broken, there will be a reaction. The more important and effective the trend line is broken, the stronger the reversal signal of its stock price trend, and the original support and pressure functions of the trend line will be interchanged.
The function of the track line: (1) limits the range of stock price changes. (2) Sound the alarm of trend turning. The breakthrough of trajectory is the beginning of trend acceleration; If you don't touch the track line in a fluctuation, you will start to turn around when you go far, which is often a signal that the trend will change. Confirmation of trajectory line: The more times the trajectory line is touched and the longer it lasts, the higher the degree and importance of its recognition. Trend line first, then follow the line. Trend lines can exist alone, but trajectory lines cannot exist alone.
4. The golden section line and percentage line have the same feature: they are both horizontal straight lines. Pay attention to the price of support line and pressure line (relatively fixed, with all the characteristics and functions of general support line or pressure line), and don't care much about when to reach this price. Key number of golden section: 0.618; Key figures of percentage line: 1/2, 1/3, 2/3.
5. Other common support pressure points (1) integer points and psychological points (2) stock gap (3) transaction intensive area (volume) (4) neckline (5) historical highs and lows.
Fourth, the cycle theory We know that the time factor is one of the key points to be considered in technical analysis. Cyclic cycle theory focuses on the time factor of price fluctuation and provides time help for concrete practice. In practical use, there are many methods to determine the period, and the time span of the period is also long and short. The methods of calculating the cycle include equal time span, special digital span, solar terms and lunar holidays. According to the bad cycle theory, no matter what kind of price activity, it will not go in the same direction forever. The process of price fluctuation will inevitably produce local highs and lows, and the appearance of these highs and lows has certain laws in time. Americans have done a lot of work on cycle theory and found many cycles suitable for their securities market. From the time point of view, the cycle of the securities market is quite long, and these long cycles have little influence on the China securities market, because the time of the China securities market is much shorter. The development of things has a process from small to large, from prosperity to decline, and this periodic development law also exists in the securities market. Cyclic cycle theory holds that no matter what degree and scale of price fluctuation, it will never go in the same direction, and the process of price fluctuation will inevitably produce local high points and low points. The appearance of these high points and low points has certain regularity in time. We can enter when the low point appears and exit when the high point appears.
The starting point of verb negative theory is based on the principle that the securities market itself does not create new value, does not increase value, and can even be said to be damaged. Because of this, it is impossible for most people to make a profit. Therefore, in order to obtain huge benefits, we must be inconsistent with the actions of most people. In fact, from the theory of opposition, we can also realize that when things develop to the limit, unexpected opposition results will appear. On the contrary, the theory holds that most investors may be wrong when they agree. This theory tells us that it is impossible to get rich in line with the actions of most people. The theory has existed for a long time, and the reason is not complicated. Everyone seems to understand it, but it has not been paid enough attention, and few people really apply it. People often can't overcome their natural herd mentality and forget to use the opposite theory. On the contrary, theory tells us that contrarian operation is also profitable. Especially when we get a result that even a fool can see, we should think that there is an opposite theory. It should be pointed out that the opposite theory only tells us that if we are consistent with the public, we will certainly not get great benefits, which does not mean that if we are contrary to the public's actions, we will definitely get profits.
Sixth, Dow Theory Dow Theory uses the analysis and interpretation of Dow Jones industrial average stock price and railway average stock price to judge the fluctuation and trend of stock price. The average share price of Dow Jones Railway and Industry can reflect the transportation situation of goods and the production situation of the country. Theoretically, when the average value of these two stock prices rises, it shows that the performance of each issuing company is good and the stock market will be a bull market; When these two stock price indexes fall, it shows that the performance of the issuing company has deteriorated and the stock market will enter the short market. Dow theory is the most commonly used method for American investors to predict stock market price fluctuations, and it is also one of the oldest and most famous technical analysis theories. Its basic principle was founded by Charles. And supplemented and developed by Nelson and Hamilton.
(1) Three Movements in the Securities Market Dow Theory holds that there are three movements in the securities market at the same time. They influence each other, and * * * determines the trend of the stock price.
Major movements, also known as major trends, indicate the long-term upward trend of stock market prices, forming a long-term market (stock price is bullish) or a long-term downward trend, forming a short-term market (stock price is bearish). Once the main trend is formed, it will generally last for one year or more. Hamilton thinks that the average length of long market is 27 months, and the average length of short market is 15 months. Generally speaking, during the fluctuation of the average stock price, if the next peak of the average stock price is higher than the previous peak, the next trough of the average stock price is also higher than the previous trough, and the average stock price is on the rise for a long time, then it can be judged that the stock market has entered a bull market and the stock market will rise. On the other hand, if the next average stock price trough is lower than the previous trough, the next average stock price peak is also lower than the previous peak, and the average stock price shows a downward trend for a long time, it can be judged that the stock market has entered a bear market, and the stock price change will be dominated by decline. The long-term upward trend usually includes three stages, also known as the first, second and third stages of the bull market. In the first stage, visionary investors saw the prospect of the stock market rising and began to buy the stocks sold by pessimistic investors, which made the stock price rise slowly. At this time, stock trading is not very active, but the turnover has begun to increase. In the second stage, the economic prospects became clearer, the company's operating performance improved significantly, the stock price rose steadily, and the turnover also increased substantially. In the third stage, the good news continued, and the stock market presented a good situation. Investors actually bought stocks first, and the stock price rose rapidly, and the trading volume also increased significantly; Enterprises take the opportunity to issue new shares, and speculators also take the opportunity to drive up the stock price. This makes the stock price rise to the peak, which is a sign that the bull market is coming to an end. A long-term downturn usually includes three stages, also known as bear markets I, II and III. In the first stage, farsighted investors predicted the poor prospects of the stock market and began to sell their stocks, resulting in a slight decline in the stock price; Ordinary investors think it is a reorganization of the rising market, so they take the opportunity to buy and make the stock price rebound. But after all, the sun is setting, the trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the stock price is also gradually falling. In the second stage, the downward trend of stock price became clear, the buying power weakened, the selling pressure increased, and the trading volume dropped significantly. However, during this period, there may be a rebound in the second movement after the stock price falls again. In the third stage, bad news kept coming from the market, the stock price continued to plummet, and investors sold their stocks in succession. However, after a period of time, the downward trend slowed down, and the market price of some blue-chip stocks leveled off, but the share price of investment stocks fell sharply. This is a sign that the short market is coming to an end. In the process of the development of the main trend of stock price, it sometimes turns back, temporarily changes the original trend, and then continues the original trend, which is the influence of the second movement. Every megatrend contains several small trends.
2. Secondary sports. The secondary movement, also known as the secondary trend, refers to the sudden mid-term rebound phenomenon in the process of continuous stock price rise or the sudden mid-term rebound phenomenon in the process of continuous stock price decline. The duration of the secondary trend is about two weeks to one month. The secondary movement conforms to the main trend and plays an opposite role in a short time. Generally, a small trend can be adjusted by 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3 of a big trend. For investors, the secondary movement is also very important. In the long-term upward trend, the second movement of mid-term retracement is often a good time to buy more stocks; In the long-term downward trend, the second movement of mid-term rebound and rise is a good opportunity for investors to short.
3. Daily exercise. Daily exercise refers to the small fluctuation of stock price every day. This kind of exercise is not important and difficult to predict, and usually lasts for several hours to several days. Of course, analysts must also track the daily stock price movement, so as to find the main trend or secondary movement of stock price.
(II) Cross-validation of the average price of two stocks Dow theory holds that the trend of the stock market can be clearly displayed only under the condition of cross-validation. The so-called cross-validation means that when the average share prices of Dow Jones Railway and Industry change in the same direction, it means that one share price is averagely confirmed by another share price, and then a major trend or secondary movement will occur; If the average value of two stock prices changes in the opposite direction, it means that they are not mutually confirmed. The phenomenon of mutual evidence can be manifested in two ways. The first is that the average of two stock prices has a new peak or a new bottom at the same time, which can be used to judge whether the main trend is bull market or bear market. The second is that the average value of two stock prices suddenly rises or falls together after a small fluctuation, which is mainly used to judge the secondary movement. 1. Under the first method, the average value of the two stock prices rises step by step after a new peak appears. When the new peaks of the two indexes both exceed the previous old peaks at the same time, if the stock market was originally a short market, it may turn into a long market; If the stock market is originally a bull market, then this stock market is still a bull market. On the other hand, when the average trough of two stock prices keeps falling, and the new trough of two stocks is lower than the old trough at the same time, if the stock market is originally a bull market, it may turn into a short market at this time; If it is a short market, then the stock market is still a short market. If the average changes of two stock prices are in opposite directions, then the stock price movement lacks mutual evidence and it is impossible to judge the stock market trend. 2. Under the second method, the average value of the two stock prices fluctuates slightly, the fluctuation range is generally less than 5%, and the cycle may last for several weeks. This phenomenon shows that buyers and sellers are evenly matched and the stock market fluctuates little. When two stock price moving averages suddenly break through the original fluctuation range at the same time and change in the same direction, the stock market will change. If both rise, it means that the stock market is bullish; If both fall, it means that the stock market is bearish; If the two change in the opposite direction, it means that there is no mutual evidence and it is impossible to judge the stock market trend.
Seven. The law of stock price movement in morphological theory: (1) the stock price should fluctuate up and down in the position of balance on both sides; (2) After the original balance is broken, the stock price will find a new equilibrium position.
Maintain order and balance → break balance → new balance → break balance again → find new balance again → …
There are two types of stock price movements: continuous consolidation and reversal breakthrough.
(1) reversal breakthrough form 1, head-shoulder bottom form (1) head-shoulder top, (2) head-shoulder bottom, and (3) compound head-shoulder bottom form (left and right shoulders or head appear more than once) have the same characteristics: they are all turning forms with long-term trends. Break through the neckline and reverse the morphological formation. From the breakthrough point, the stock price will reverse at least the distance equal to the height of the form (the straight line distance from the head to the neckline). The heights of the left shoulder and the right shoulder are approximately equal; The turnover of the left shoulder is the largest, followed by the head, and the turnover of the right shoulder is the smallest, showing a stepped decline. Difference: the head and shoulders are reversed downwards, often appearing at the top of the long-term trend; The head, shoulders and soles are reversed upwards, often appearing at the bottom of the long-term trend. The neckline is the support line at the top of the head and shoulders and the pressure line at the bottom of the head and shoulders. * The biggest difference between the head-shoulder top shape and the head-shoulder bottom shape in volume matching: after the head-shoulder top shape is completed, the volume may not be enlarged when the neckline is punctured; The shape of head, shoulders and soles breaks through the neckline upwards. Without a large number of intersections, the reliability will be greatly reduced, and even a false head-shoulder-bottom shape will appear. In this case, stock trading must be very vigilant.
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