Guangzhou 14 sets push new! Housing enterprises no longer look at the "golden point" when selling buildings?
environment: real estate enterprises with tight monetary policy admit that they are under great financial pressure
On May 17th this year, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Carrying out the Work of "Consolidating the Achievements of Combating Chaos and Promoting Compliance Construction", explicitly requiring commercial banks, trusts, leasing and other financial institutions not to conduct illegal real estate financing, which became an important node for real estate financing tightening in the first half of the year.
in August, the regulatory authorities stepped up efforts to rectify the market chaos in real estate enterprises where institutions illegally transfused blood. On August 9th, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to conduct a special inspection of bank real estate business in 32 cities, involving bank real estate-related loans such as land reserve loans, development loans, personal mortgages, housing lease loans, and strictly investigate all kinds of illegal and illegal acts of diverting funds into the real estate industry. On August 3th, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a circular on the on-site inspection of some local small and medium-sized banks, criticizing the small and medium-sized banks for illegally providing financing for real estate projects.
"At present, the loan amount is relatively tight, and the time is long. The most important thing is that the interest rate is unstable." A few days ago, when a reporter stepped on a property in Zengcheng, the salesperson said. She said that now, in cooperation with several major banks, the loan interest rate basically rises by about 1%~2%. "Now near the end of the year, the approval cycle of bank loans has been lengthened, which is actually a big financial test for our developers."
On September 6th, the central bank announced that it had decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by .5 percentage point and targeted cuts to required reserve ratios by 1 percentage point on September 16th, 219. The long-term funds released by the RRR cut are about 9 billion yuan, including about 8 billion yuan from the overall RRR cut and about 1 billion yuan from targeted cuts to required reserve ratios. However, industry analysts believe that the RRR cut is mainly to support the real economy, and there is not much looseness in real estate policies. It is not ruled out that the loosening of funds brought by the RRR cut will bring some boost to the real estate industry, but under the tightened real estate policy, the impact is not great.
However, it is worth noting that on September 2th, the market quotation rate (LPR) of the new loan was released: the one-year LPR was 4.2%, which was 5 basis points lower than the previous one; The LPR over 5 years is 4.85%, which remains unchanged. Some analysts pointed out that the LPR interest rate over five years remains unchanged, indicating that under the current background of real estate market regulation, the decision-makers hope to prevent the house price from rising too fast by stabilizing the mortgage interest rate.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the second-hand housing data showed the downward adjustment of housing prices in 2 cities for three consecutive months, which was the first time in the last two years. Judging from the changes in different cities, both new residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in first-and second-tier cities have dropped significantly. "Xiaoyangchun in the first half of 219 has passed." Zhang Dawei said.
supply: "Hundred flowers blossom" in the area where the inventory volume decreases and the cargo volume increases
According to the monitoring of Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, 14 first-hand houses were opened or pushed in Guangzhou on the eve of the "Eleventh" and holidays this year, totaling 2,36 units, which decreased by 3 compared with the same period of last year, but the total push volume increased by 21% compared with the previous year, and the characteristics of "inventory volume decreased and cargo volume increased" were obvious. Generally speaking, the strength of pushing goods in the peripheral area is obviously greater than that in the central area, but at present, the Guangzhou market is still dominated by a small amount of pushing, and the popularity is created by controlling the supply rhythm.
from the regional perspective, the main areas of the May 1st or 11th opening in recent four years have experienced the changes from Zengcheng-Panyu to Zengcheng-Huangpu and then to Zengcheng-Nansha, and the proportion of new products promoted by the two main supply areas in the past has both exceeded 5% of the total, showing the remarkable characteristics of hot spots. This year, the "tradition" of the "Eleventh" hot spots has been broken, and the supply of new houses in various districts has shown a trend of "letting a hundred flowers blossom". The main supply area only accounts for 2% of Zengcheng, while Panyu and Huangpu, which are tied for second place, only account for 17% each. The industry believes that this is mainly due to the more uniform land supply in various districts of Guangzhou in recent years.
During the Golden Week this year, an average of 165 units were supplied per unit, which was 46% higher than the 112 units in the same period in 218, and the supply capacity of a single unit was significantly improved. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department believes that this is mainly due to the optimization of property market control measures in November last year, especially to speed up the number of new projects approved in the central area. Taking the Guangzhou Iron and Steel Project as an example, in the same period last year, "only 5 sets were approved at a time", and at present, projects in the same sector can be approved at one time for 2~3 units. In addition, last year's "Eleventh" improvement projects such as Changlingju, Jiaomen, Huadu Huashan and Zengcheng Shilou were concentrated in the market, and the number of such projects with long transaction cycle was small at one time, which indirectly lowered the average supply level last year; On the other hand, this year's "Eleventh" push goods, mainly high-rise villa units, with stronger supply capacity.
phenomenon: many projects are "rushed to run" and "postponed"
Every year, "Golden September and Silver 1" is the key promotion link for real estate enterprises to bet on their treasures, and many properties will choose to open on the 11th holiday. However, since 218, the trend of "dispersion" of new sales in Guangzhou has become more and more obvious. This year, developers push the goods more dispersed, and many projects rush or postpone the push plan.
According to industry insiders, from the perspective of developers, pushing goods from the end of August to the middle of September in advance can attract customers as soon as possible and accelerate the completion of the year-end payment task; From the buyer's point of view, as the market price and supply in Guangzhou tend to be stable for a long time, customers maintain a rational mentality. In the early years, the situation of "rushing to the market" is no longer the case. Many customers choose to travel and return home on the "Eleventh", and housing enterprises generally push goods in advance for the convenience of customers.
judging from the characteristics of the race-breaking project, from August 24th to September 7th, the middle and high-priced plates were mainly introduced. Including Zijun House in Gezhouba, Guangzhou Iron and Steel Group, and Pearl River Flower City in Tianhe Olympic Sports Group, among which Pearl River Flower City was granted the pre-sale certificate on September 6, and 4 units were released. During the "Golden September and Silver 1" period, "ammunition was sufficient", and it was opened twice in September (9.7 and 9.21). In the peripheral area, jinzhou area and Xinzao, the high-quality subway plates in Nansha and Panyu, respectively launched Yuexiu Tianqi and Cisco Smart City, which are 12 light years away.
Guangzhou Zhongyuan research and development department believes that the early opening of the project is conducive to the transaction because of the long storage time of mid-to high-end customers and the lack of first-hand supply of the above-mentioned plates except Guangzhou Steel in recent years, so the intentional customers are highly concentrated. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, all districts just need to start "testing the water". At this time, the sectors where the new projects are promoted are generally abundant in primary supply (such as Huangge, Shitan and Zhucun), and the competition is fierce. It is beneficial to attract wait-and-see buyers and grab the "first soup" in the market.
in addition, this year, except for some large markets such as Asian Games Town and Green Lake International City, which chose to push the goods during the 11th holiday, the other major first-hand markets basically maintained a smooth selling state. Some projects obtained pre-sale certificates in large quantities as early as July and August, and the large markets in each district basically maintained about 5 sets of saleable inventory. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department predicts that a small number of promotional units and special rooms will be launched during the "Eleventh" period in all districts, and they will be kept in a state of smooth sales.
in addition to "rushing to run", there are also many "delayed orders" in the market this year, which are expected to be put into the market after the 11 th holiday. Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department pointed out that some "delayed projects" had objective reasons that the construction progress did not meet the requirements of obtaining the pre-sale permit, and had to adjust the launch time. The other part of the delay is because developers need longer time to "build momentum". For example, Huadu Lake and Nansha Lingshan Island Tip belong to brand-new sectors, and the cost of land acquisition is high, and the market acceptance is unknown. Therefore, developers generally carry out "publicity offensive" during their stay in Jin Jiu, for example, by launching conferences, advertising, setting up demonstration sites in popular business districts, etc., to start the project popularity first, and then push the goods at the right time.
Layout: Hot spots focus on "cost performance" to attract customers
According to the monitoring of Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, the Asian Games Town is the "pillar" during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and the brand-new Asian Games Town "Tianyun" group will enter the market soon, and it is estimated that 4 sets of new goods will be launched. In addition, it is expected that the brand-new grand and famous city of Science City will enter the market before the holiday, and with the sales of Poly Roland International and Kecheng Mountain Villa, it is expected to attract commuter customers from the eastern subway to enter the market.
In addition to the traditional running volume plate, Conghua Jiekou and Zengcheng Shitan benefited from the advantage of high cost performance in 219, and their attention was continuously improved. From January to August this year, 2,7 first-hand units were sold in Conghua, up 1% year-on-year. Driven by the favorable commuting of Line 14 and the demand spillover brought by the price increase of the knowledge city plate, more and more office workers in Baiyun and Huangpu paid attention to the Conghua property market.
In addition to the traditional large-scale Green Lake International City, the new plate of the Shitan Plate, namely, Jiangyue House and Fiona Fang Yunshan Poetic Cloud Seal, is officially launched, and the regional heat is on the rise. In addition, some stone beach projects take the high price of OCT in July this year to winNo. A1922 of Zhengtian Village in Stone Beach as a selling point, which stimulates buyers to speed up the pace of entering the market.
Foresight prediction
"Grab customers" or start after holidays
According to the current "Eleventh" advance prediction, during the holidays, most projects in Guangzhou will focus on straight sales, or a small number of price units and lottery activities will be launched to attract customers, but the overall market turnover will be stable. From the perspective of local sectors, the price of developers in sectors where subway commuting and supply are relatively scarce may be relatively "tough"; There is a high possibility that there will be a small profit in the plate with fierce competition.
Take the investigation conducted by Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department in September as an example. In the sectors such as Nansha jinzhou area and Tianhe Olympic Sports Center, where the primary supply is relatively tight and the land price of the surrounding new land is relatively high, developers generally hold the mentality of "not worrying about selling", and they sell at the regular price during the "Golden September and Silver 1" period, and the promotion efforts are weak. In the Huangpu Knowledge City plate, because Line 21 will be connected to Tianhe soon, and the second-hand units in the plate have not yet entered the market in large quantities, some properties in the Knowledge City even show a slight upward trend in price. Based on the "tail-jumping" characteristics of primary market transactions in recent years, Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department believes that further "customer grabbing wars" may start after the holidays, especially in the fourth quarter of this year, when a large number of brand-new projects will enter the market, the trading atmosphere will be even more enthusiastic.
Expert opinion
In fact, there are three things in Guangzhou market now, namely, there is no shortage of housing demand, favorable policies and market confidence. First, the demand for housing is likely to continue to be released, especially some wait-and-see housing demand will also actively enter the market in the near future. Second, with the regional development and various rail transit construction, the suburban market in Guangzhou is active. Third, in the past two years, Guangzhou's housing appreciation opportunities have been obvious, and the market has sufficient confidence. Therefore, it is expected that Guangzhou's "Golden September and Silver 1" performance will be good this year, or the market transactions in Guangzhou will be more active. Considering that the recent market is still guided by price reduction and promotion, it is expected that some properties are still willing to give some discounts or concessions, and buyers can actively grasp them.
—— Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute
Recently, the transaction volume of the property market has come up, but compared with the downturn in June, July and August, the overall growth rate is actually not large. Since the goal of substantially recovering funds has not been achieved, the promotion will definitely continue in the next "Eleventh" Golden Week, otherwise the problem of tight project funds will not be solved. How much room is there for price reduction? Except for some regional real estate projects that have achieved the purpose of recovering funds, the "Eleventh" is likely to increase the preferential intensity for those projects that have not been sold much in the Mid-Autumn Festival.
-Deng Haozhi, a real estate expert
As of September 23rd, there were 4,8 first-hand residential houses in Guangzhou, covering an area of 472, square meters, and 4,172 houses were sold, covering an area of 458, square meters. Although the supply enthusiasm of the developers was improved, the marketing actions were still conservative, so the transaction performance was mediocre. It is expected that developers will increase their promotion efforts near the Golden Week. From October, there will be a wave of preferential wars with wider coverage in the fourth quarter.
—— Chief Market Analyst of Guangzhou Kerui
Xiao Wenxiao
New information on "Golden September and Silver 1" of some real estates
Liwan District
Gezhouba and Guangzhou Zijun House will add 143 square meters of four rooms
New World Kaiyue Bay will add 76~143 square meters of two to five rooms products
Tianhe District
. Corporate headquarters with a floor area of 155~9 square meters
Haizhu District
Yuexiu Tianyue Jiangwan is the first riverview duplex unit with a floor area of about 12~14 square meters
Huafa Jiangnan Mansion is a four-bedroom apartment with a floor area of about 128~143 square meters
Baiyun District
Weiteng Yunxing rushed to launch the second floor area of 79~13 square meters on August 31st. Duplex units with 1-4+1 rooms will soon launch
Langyun Garden plans to flatten 121 square meters, duplex houses with 111-115 square meters and villa products.
Huangpu District
Vanke Happiness Reputation Vanke Mountain View City Yueshan III Project has been promoted
Huabiao Peak Lake Yujing will launch a 328~586 square meter large-sized unit with five to nine rooms
Panyu District
A 28-storey ordinary house will be newly launched in the fourth phase of Xinghewan Peninsula. The four-bedroom unit has a floor area of about 286 square meters
The Asian Games Town launched three-bedroom to four-bedroom units with a floor area of 89-135 square meters in September
Nansha District
Jialin Juhe Zunyuetai is the first to promote two-bedroom to three-bedroom units with a floor area of about 76-96 square meters
Jinke Bocui Mingzhu will promote three-bedroom and four-bedroom river-view houses with a floor area of 8-138 square meters
It is expected to be promoted in Zhongjiao Blue Bay. The floor area of the apartment is about 144~237 square meters
Agile Lugang is expected to build a residential unit with a main floor area of about 34~9 square meters
The commercial project of Zhongjiaotong Center will be built with a floor area of 5~7 square meters. LOFT office unit with a south sea view
Related links
Nansha Lingshan Island Tip Plate
A brand-new building will be opened in November
Information Times (Reporter Rosalyn) The reporter learned at the event that Yuexiu Pearl Tianyue Jiangwan Project, a brand-new project of Yuexiu Real Estate in Nansha, located at the tip of Lingshan Island in Nansha, will be opened in November.
enter the exhibition hall, where an interesting sound device is set up. Simple pipes build the bond of sound, which means that people can calm down and slow down to listen to the forgotten beautiful voices in life. You can also record audio postcards in the exhibition hall, choose a section of the most vocal audio and send it to your relatives, friends and even yourself to express your life and feelings with sound.
It is reported that Yuexiu, as one of the earliest established real estate developers in China, has been adhering to the brand mission of "achieving a better life". Yuexiu Pearl Tianyue Jiangwan project, a brand-new project in Nansha, is about to open in November, with the theme of "island", "autumn", "beach" and "continent", adding more imagination space to the building with minimalist images.