Large-scale precipitation process in my country

Jianghuai and Jiangnan will soon usher in a large-scale rain and snow weather process. Light rain has fallen in Wuhan since last night, and there was localized snowfall at noon today. Changsha, Hunan Province experienced ice pellet weather at night. Later, this large-scale precipitation weather will be fully launched in the Yangtze River Basin R Kz&I

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Let me talk about my personal views first: eqH9O

1. Personal It is believed that this precipitation may last for a long time, continue intermittently, and even last until early February. The second half of winter this year is likely to be cold, with the possibility of a cold wave and widespread heavy snowfall from the end of January to early February. nQ|8^/XR

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2. Let’s talk about the current situation during this period. I will mainly focus on Central China. There may be three precipitation processes in the middle of the year. The first one is the current one. The precipitation intensity is weak, and it is matched by a weak cold air from the NE route (from the perspective of the path of the cold air after it invades our country). Precipitation will continue intermittently from tomorrow to the day after tomorrow, but the intensity will be limited. It will snow in northern Hubei, while sleet and light rain will dominate in the south. Due to the weak precipitation, precipitation will not be obvious in many places. The precipitation in Hunan is heavier than that in Hubei, and sleet and snow will occur in quite a few areas north of central Hunan. This wave of precipitation was a tentative attack and basically ended on the night of the 14th. _ j`MC 6]CXr*X`P

3. The second wave of attacks started on the 15th, and there was an interval of 1 day or more between the first and second waves of attacks in various places. The intensity of precipitation increased on the 18th. Although the latest report from GFS is not optimistic about the scope of precipitation, according to personal subjective judgment, the scope and intensity of this wave of precipitation will increase significantly. In the later stage of the precipitation, some areas in northern and central Hunan will fall with pure snow. Hubei will not be affected due to water vapor conditions. Good call, but if there is enough moisture it will also be pure snow. Personally, I am optimistic that Wuhan will receive at least 8 hours of pure snowfall. zqM9lDGH-

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4. The third wave of attacks started on the 19th, and the starting time varies from place to place. The end time of this wave of attacks is unknown, and the intensity varies individually. I think it's still considerable. Personal subjective judgment. Whether the third wave of attacks will snow depends on the results of the second wave. If there is widespread snowfall in Central China at the end of the second wave, then the third wave of attacks is optimistic. Otherwise, it will only appear in the later stages. Pure snow. However, I personally believe that in the later stages of the third wave of attacks, most areas of central and southern Hubei and central and northern Hunan will experience snowfall at varying times.

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5. For the situation after the third wave of attacks, I tend to see a complete replacement of the Eurasian trough in the second half of the year, and a situation conducive to the accumulation of cold air at high latitudes, and I think that continuous rain and snow will rise again in the latter half of the year. , and this time it is expected to be completely snowy and cold. }a2D

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PS: I am just expressing my personal opinion. I think the winter after this year The situation may be very similar to that of 1996, and may be more extreme than that year, with heavier rainfall.

Some netizens think that the winter after this year will be warmer, or that there will be no pure snowfall this time (at least until the 23rd). I think these opinions have their own reasons. I am just expressing my own opinion 1\ ]b ]

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Everyone is welcome to leave comments and post more live information and weather situation maps during heavy rainfall!